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Continued: Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann: On the ground in Afghanistan

Iraq was George W. Bush's war, but the conflict that now embroils both Pakistan and Afghanistan is likely to become Barack Obama's -- a war to which he may commit 30,000 more U.S. troops. Will the incoming soldiers in Afghanistan simply be sucked into the "Graveyard of Empires," as the British and Soviets were before them? Or could Obama's war eventually bring peace and stability to the region? Here are some of the most important trends that will determine the answer.

A LOSING BATTLE?

Since the fall of the Taliban, Afghanistan has been (in the words of Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) an "economy of force" operation. We got what we paid for: Insecurity rose as troop strength remained inadequate. Today, NATO and U.S. force levels are at their highest ever. Both the Afghan National Police and the Afghan National Army, after slow starts, are growing. Still, the country is less secure, as seen in an exponential increase in Taliban and Al-Qaida suicide attacks and in the steady rise in U.S. casualties. Jihadist violence has also surged in Pakistan. Many Americans have sniffed at Pakistani efforts against the Taliban, but it's worth noting that 1,347 Pakistani soldiers died fighting the militants inside Pakistan between 2001 and 2008.

HEARTS AND MINDS

Afghan support for U.S. efforts in their country is declining, but disenchantment with the United States does not mean affection for the Taliban. The most recent poll showed that only 7 percent of Afghans supported them. Pakistan remains one of the world's most anti-American countries: Approval ratings for the United States are now in the mid-teens, less favorable than ratings for Osama bin Laden. Still, Pakistan is hardly poised for an Islamist takeover. Its alliance of Islamist parties won 11 percent of the vote in 2002 and was trounced in the 2008 election, dropping to just 2 percent.

HELPING HANDS

U.S. support for reconstruction and humanitarian aid in Afghanistan has averaged only a little more than $1 billion per year since 2001, but U.S. military spending there is about 20 times greater. Since 9/11, Washington has provided Pakistan with about $11 billion in direct military support -- but relatively little in nonmilitary aid, except emergency funds after the earthquake in Kashmir in 2005. That's set to change, with $750 million earmarked for development in Pakistan's troubled tribal regions over the next several years, plus billions of dollars of aid designed to help ordinary Pakistanis rather than the generals.

ACHILLES' HEEL?

As much as 80 percent of the supplies for NATO and U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan is trucked in from Pakistan, where the Taliban are targeting key choke points along supply routes. The U.S. military is inking deals with Afghanistan's authoritarian neighbors to ship in supplies over the northern border -- an effort rocked by Kyrgyzstan's recent move to close the last remaining U.S. air base in Central Asia.

ATTACK OF THE DRONES

By early 2008, the Bush administration had grown fed up with Pakistan's unwillingness or inability to take out jihadists in its Federally Administered Tribal Areas along the Afghan border. So it stepped up air strikes there, launching them from remotely piloted Predator drones. Several of those strikes killed Al-Qaida leaders. But they've also triggered a backlash from ordinary Pakistanis angry over civilian casualties. The missions seem likely to continue: The Obama administration has already launched two Predator strikes of its own.

A BITTER HARVEST

Poppy-growing is the backbone of Afghanistan's economy. The drug trade employs around 2 million people and generates approximately one-third of the country's GDP -- but also helps fund the Taliban and fuels corruption. The watchdog group Transparency International rates Afghanistan as one of the world's most corrupt countries.

THE PASHTUN FACTOR

With a population of about 40 million, the Pashtun ethnic group is one of the largest in the world without its own state. More and more Pashtuns see the Taliban as the best defenders of their rights. There are almost twice as many Pashtuns in Pakistan as in Afghanistan -- another reason why Obama will have to deal with both sides of the border.

Peter Bergen, author of "The Osama bin Laden I Know," is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation. Katherine Tiedemann is a program associate at the New America Foundation. They wrote this article for the Washington Post.

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