Blog House: OK -- it's over

The results of Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana have made two things certain:

•It will be Barack Obama vs. John McCain on the November ballot.

•Someone needs to have a sit-down with Hillary Clinton.

Obama's strong win in North Carolina, coupled with his surprising showing in Indiana, has changed what the television talking heads like to call the metrics of the race:

•Obama gained delegates -- meaning even if the Florida and Michigan results were taken into consideration, he has an insurmountable lead.

•He erased all of the gains Clinton made in the popular vote in Pennsylvania, giving him a 700,000-vote edge.

•He still has a huge edge in money, even after Clinton loaned her campaign another $6.4 million last month.

Add it all together and it equals a nomination for Obama, said Kevin Drum at the Political Animal (1).

"Gas tax pandering didn't work, the arithmetic is even more stacked against her than ever ... and speculation is rife that she might finally drop out. Maybe the game changed tonight after all... Short of Obama literally keeling over from a stroke, I'm not sure what Hillary has left to hope for. Maybe she's finally figured that out."

Or not, as Chris Cillizza at the Fix (2) pointed out. It all depends on how long her money, superdelegates and party elders allow her to stay.

"Nor are there many among unaffiliated Democratic consultants who believe she is ready to bail out. 'She is the Japanese soldier in the Pacific island that hasn't been told the war is over,' said Democratic pollster John Anzalone. 'Occasionally she picks off a few islanders and considers it a victory. Well, yesterday she found out the war was over."... Make no mistake: Clinton can remain in this contest as long as she likes, and she resumed campaigning in West Virginia ... But, her path to the nomination has grown so perilous after last night's disappointing performance that if she collides with any (or all) of the hurdles we cited above, she may well have to finally pull out of the contest."

As Clinton gave her speech Tuesday night, there was little sympathy coming from Andrew Sullivan (3).

"As her speech staggers on, after the gas tax holiday gambit, and a plea for Burma, she eventually turns to Florida and Michigan. You almost want to look away. But it's fascinating in a way. She cannot concede; she cannot give an inch; she cannot acknowledge reality. Observing sociopaths in close detail as their world collapses around them and they cannot absorb the truth is always fascinating. And yet some sliver of humanity is discernible: her tone is altered. Even she cannot fake enthusiasm or confidence any more. And Bill seems grim. Chelsea seemed close to breaking into tears. If you want another president whose own grip on reality has little relationship to the outside world, then you know who to vote for."

The final nail in her coffin probably came Tuesday night when Media High Priest Tim Russert performed the last rites on the Clinton campaign, proclaiming, "We now know who the democratic nominee is going to be and no one is going to dispute it." John Aravosis at AMERICAblog (4) said it's about time that the media caught on to what the much of the blogosphere has known for a couple of months.

"The media finally turned on her. It's over. It's finally freaking over. I say this because the race was over 2 months ago. But the media kept it alive by pretending as though Hillary had a chance, when they knew she didn't."

Now Obama can move on selecting a running mate, and M.J. Rosenberg at TPM Cafe (5) has a suggestion with a little local flavor.

"[H]e should pick a woman and any other woman will raise the question 'why not Hillary.' My guess. He goes with Clinton or with Governors [Kathleen] Sebelius (KS) or [Janet] Napolitano (AZ) or Senators [Claire] McCaskill (MO) or [Amy] Klobuchar (MN). Either way, he wins."

Regardless of who fills out the ticket, it's Obama at the front of it, and some Republican bloggers, like John Hawkins at Right Wing News (6), are excited by the prospect.

"Obama's 'egg heads and African-Americans' coalition is still turning out for him, but he's not making significant inroads with the voters he'll need to win the election and the Democrats are getting ever more divided. ... So, once again, it's Hillary's supporters, not Obama's, that are more likely to sit at home or vote for McCain in November if their candidate doesn't get the nod. Moreover, Obama is still losing the white vote by a landslide and since, unlike the black vote, white voters are actually up for grabs in November, that's a big deal. Those are very troubling trends for the Democrats indeed ..."

tobrien@startribune.com

SEE FOR YOURSELF WHERE TO FIND THE BLOGS

1 The Political Animal • washingtonmonthly.com

2 The Fix • blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix

3 Andrew Sullivan • andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com

4 AMERICAblog • americablog.com

5 TPM Cafe • tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com

6 Right Wing News • rightwingnews.com

Editor's note: Blog excerpts are not edited for style or spelling.