Blog House: Now it's come down to him, him, him or her

And then there were four.

The fields in both the Republican and Democratic races for the nomination have essentially boiled down to mano-a-mano contests -- Arizona Sen. John McCain vs. former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the GOP, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton vs. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the Democrats -- just in time for Super Duper Tuesday.

After Tuesday's Florida primary, Rudy Giuliani's withdrawal wasn't unexpected. He had said that the winner of Florida would be the nominee, and he came nowhere close to winning Florida.

Jeffrey Feldman at the Huffington Post (1) said it was the end of era. "Of all the words Rudy Giuliani used in his Florida concession speech last night, '9/11' was not one of them. The omission of his signature leitmotif from his only major televised speech was not an oversight, but a harbinger of big change in American politics. Finally, after seven years of Republicans exploiting 9/11 to win elections and pass policies, Giuliani's failure in the presidential race will likely put that strategy to bed."

The Florida results also gave the Republicans their first true front-runner of the 2008 season: McCain. "I realize that this is going to sound painfully patronizing, but seriously, I want to congratulate the rank-and-file voters of the Republican Party for their performance so far," wrote Kevin Drum of the Political Animal (2). "Obviously I'm not planning to vote for any of the Republican candidates myself, but some are worse than others: Giuliani is a creepy one-note screwball; [Mike] Huckabee is ignorant and proud of it; [Fred] Thompson was a coma-inducing joke; and [Tom] Tancredo, [Duncan] Hunter and [Ron] Paul were just vanity candidates. The two who are left, McCain and Romney, are by far the least offensive of the whole field. So: congratulations GOP. Considering what you had to work with, not a bad effort."

The Democratic field was winnowed with the unexpected withdrawal of John Edwards. He had not won a contest yet, but most pundits said he was aiming to be a kingmaker at the convention this summer. Edwards. The pundits wrong? Couldn't be.

Jonathan Cohn at the Plank (4) said that Edwards was brought down by his message -- it was too effective. "Edwards' biggest problem may have been that he was too compelling -- so compelling that his rivals effectively adopted his agenda. From the beginning, Edwards was positioning himself as the champion of Americans struggling to get ahead financially. And rather than simply offer populist rhetoric, he backed it with a serious, comprehensive set of policies."

So, in a race too close to call on the Democratic side, whom does Edwards' departure help the most? According to Ed Morrissey at Captain's Quarters (5), it's Obama who should send flowers. "Edwards has until now split the Hillary opposition with Barack Obama. His departure provides a single point of focus for those who resent the Clinton influence within the party -- a faction that has grown, undoubtedly, after the nasty and mean-spirited campaigning of Bill Clinton over the last month. Democratic pundits and politicians alike have raised their voices against the Restoration, and now Obama personifies the opportunity to prevent it. Edwards essentially has taken himself out of the middleman role. Hillary now has to contend with Obama by herself, with no one to run interference for her, on the eve of the closest thing we've ever had to a national primary. This could very well be the tipping point for the Clintons."

Obama got a big boost on Monday when he received the endorsement of liberal lion Ted Kennedy. Most endorsements don't matter much (anyone remember who the governor of New Hampshire endorsed?), but Matthew Yglesias (6) argued this one does. "Ted Kennedy is just a great liberal leader. He's the guy you wish every senator with a safe seat would be. A guy who doesn't just vote the right way, but who's willing to give voice to unseasonable opinions. ... The man's not above criticism by any means. But I do think the theory that Hillary Clinton is the real candidate of commitment to progressive politics is put seriously to the test by Kennedy's judgment."

tobrien@startribune.com

SEE FOR YOURSELF HOW TO FIND THE BLOGS ONLINE

1 The Huffington Post • huffingtonpost.com

2 The Political Animal • washingtonmonthly.com

3 The Corner • corner.nationalreview.com

4 The Plank • blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank

5 Captain's Quarters • captainsquartersblog.com

6 Matthew Yglesias • matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com