Jeff Johnson: Third District voters could easily elect a conservative

U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad's announced retirement has set off a frenzied campaign to succeed him. Those of us who love to watch (and play) politics have been anticipating the scramble for the Third District Republican nomination for years, and it looks to be a wide-open field.

The list of potential Republican candidates is long and, in my view, impressive. I should add up front that my name has appeared on several of those lists (which might explain why I have found the lists so impressive), but I will not be a candidate. I am committed to my campaign for Hennepin County commissioner.

What has interested me most about the lists of potential candidates is the commentary that has accompanied them. It appears that the conventional wisdom (which means the opinions of the media, a few political-science professors and some Democrats masquerading as independent political observers) is that we Republicans can only hope to hold this seat if the candidate we nominate is a "moderate" Republican (by which I think they mean someone who is liberal on every issue but taxes).

That conventional wisdom is nonsense.

In order to win, Republicans don't need to administer a litmus test on social issues and throw out the conservatives. Rather, we need to nominate a candidate who can earn the respect and trust of the citizens of the Third, just as Jim Ramstad has been able to do. A conservative can earn that trust and respect just as surely as a moderate could.

Now, that doesn't mean we won't have problems if we choose a candidate who has defined himself or herself by a single "wedge" issue. But a candidate who happens to be conservative across-the-board can -- and I believe will --win this seat if he or she campaigns on those issues that are most important to the citizens of the district: taxes, federal spending, education, health care and national security.

Call me crazy, but I believe a conservative will actually do better than a moderate on the Republican side in 2008, because a conservative will ignite a Republican base out here in the suburbs that is in dire need of some ignition after several years of disappointment at both the state and federal levels.

Will a conservative get the 65 to 70 percent Jim Ramstad has consistently gotten over the years? Not likely. Jim received those impressive numbers based on a long history of public service and a reputation as one of the hardest-working, classiest and most-caring politicians in Minnesota. The trust and respect Jim earned is the reason a lot of conservatives like me always supported him despite some significant differences on important issues.

No, a conservative Republican won't poll 65 percent of the vote in 2008, but neither will a moderate Republican. And, by the way, neither will a liberal or moderate Democrat. But the winner doesn't need 65 percent of the votes. Fifty percent plus one will work just fine.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not a Republican who believes that we should drive moderates out of the GOP. I believe our party should be broad and deep, welcoming those who support many of our core beliefs even while disagreeing with parts of our platform. I just don't think that those of us who are conservatives in the Third have to choose a candidate who is much more liberal than we are in order to win next year.

The election results from the past few years in this district have been pretty evenly split, with a slight lean toward Republican candidates (including socially conservative Republican candidates). There is no reason to believe that will change next year.

I've seen plenty of commentary this past week claiming that the Third is solidly prochoice. There is simply no basis for that belief. Even if it were true, however, most voters out here don't vote based on one issue -- or even two or three issues; they vote for the candidate they like, respect and trust the most and for the candidate they believe will make wise choices on issues that affect their family budget, their kids' educations, their safety and their jobs.

As long as we nominate a conservative candidate who understands what most of the voters in the Third District care about, we will be successful. A prolife candidate will lose some votes and gain some votes because of that issue. But abortion (or gay marriage, school choice, stem-cell research, gun laws, etc.) will not be determinative in this election unless we're stupid enough to put up a candidate who is defined by a single, controversial issue and insists on making it central to his or her campaign.

So far, I haven't seen any such candidate on the lists of potential Republicans.

So take heart, conservative voters. If you believe, as I do, that your best candidate for Congress will be conservative both fiscally and -- gasp -- socially, use this opportunity to throw conventional wisdom on its rear end. This is going to be fun.

Jeff Johnson, R-Plymouth, is a former member of the Minnesota House of Representatives.