Ricardo Chavira: Waiting for their dictator to die

HAVANA - Just about every week, poor Latin Americans arrive here for free eye surgery, courtesy of the Cuban government. Over the past few years, thousands have benefited from what the government has dubbed "Operation Miracle." Additionally, some 20,000 Cuban doctors are working in impoverished nations, tending to those who would not otherwise receive medical care.

Meanwhile, Margarita Gomez sits alone all day in a fetid shack. Confined to a wheelchair since breaking her hip last year, the 75-year-old Gomez suffers from a chronic heart ailment. The dilapidated tiny shelter in Havana's Husillo section floods whenever it rains. "I have to stay there," she says, pointing to a filthy cot, "to keep from getting soaked." A daughter who works long hours to support two children does her best to aid Gomez, but there is only enough money to provide a sparse diet.

She would like to be admitted to a home for the disabled elderly. But because her official address is in another part of Cuba, health authorities refused her request. She has no way of getting to the office where she could solicit an address change. "I am like a prisoner here, because I can't walk or even fetch water," she says. "My only hope is that the government will do something to help me."

With Raul Castro gradually asserting control over the country, it is the same hope of millions.

Though Fidel Castro remains head of state and has an important voice in government policy, his brother Raul is the unofficial president. This has left Cuba in a strange political configuration. For decades, the communist regime was an extension of Fidel. However, since a serious intestinal ailment forced Fidel into seclusion and virtual retirement a year ago, Cubans have been left to wonder where their country is headed.

Many are convinced that Fidel will not resume his old duties and will die before too long. That belief is fueling widespread sentiment in favor of radical economic change. Dozens of Cubans interviewed this summer said they believed the elder Castro -- who continues to denounce free-market practices -- is blocking badly needed reforms, including sharp wage increases.

His death should remove any barrier to change. The restiveness is palpable and a significant departure from the quiet apathy many Cubans have felt during nearly 50 years of communist rule.

Even now Cubans are generally unwilling to criticize the government. Article 62 of the constitution states: "No recognized freedoms can be exercised against the constitution or the law, nor against the decision of the Cuban people to build socialism and communism," greatly constricting freedom of speech.

"I think we are the only country with this kind of leadership," says Jeanette, a teacher, who asked that her full name not be used for fear of political reprisal. "Officially Fidel is recuperating. But it has been a year. What kind of recuperation is that for a man who is 80-plus years old? He has to be very ill, but we are not being told the truth."

Jorge, a city bureaucrat who also asked that his last name not be used, says the mood of the country has radically changed.

"I think people abroad must believe we all either hate or love Fidel," he says. "Actually a lot of us respect Fidel for what he did early on in helping the poor masses. But he became stuck in his old communist ways and has not allowed Cuba to develop along with the rest of the world. I can't predict what will happen when Fidel dies, but I do know that we all expect some big changes."

Long a problem, on-the-job theft has skyrocketed, Cuban workers say. What's stolen ends up on the black market. Those who steal say it's the only way to supplement salaries that average the equivalent of $16 monthly.

Fidel's death will be momentous, but will it bring a violent upheaval?

Almost certainly it will not. However, his passing will enormously increase pressure on Raul to take swift and decisive action on the economic front. Failure to do so could unleash pent-up frustration among a people weary of endless sacrifice.

Ricardo Chavira teaches Latin American studies at the University of California, Irvine. This article was distributed by Scripps Howard News Service.