Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the temperature outlook over the next couple of weeks, which suggests warm, summer-like temperatures continuing. Temps will likely remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s, which will be above average for the 2nd half of July.
Severe Threat Sunday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a risk of severe weather across much of the state, including the Twin Cities on Sunday. It appears the greatest risk will be across parts of Central MN where a SLIGHT RISK has been issued. Large hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
Weather Outlook Ahead
Weather conditions on Sunday and Monday look a little unsettled across the region with areas of showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Rainfall Potential Through AM Tuesday
Here's the rainfall potential through AM Tuesday, which suggests pockets of heavy rain across the northern half of the state. Some spots could see 0.50" to nearly 1.0" in some of the stronger storms.
Friday's Severe Storm South of MSP
"Slow-Moving Barry Makes Landfall Saturday In Louisiana Bringing Heavy Rain And Flooding - Dangerous Storm Surge - And Strong Winds To The Lower Mississippi Valley"
- Tropical Storm Barry continues to slowly move toward the Louisiana coast this morning with some slight strengthening occurring. As of the 7 AM CDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Barry had sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving to the northwest at 5 mph. The center of the system was located 50 miles west-southwest of Morgan City, LA.
- Barry is expected to see additional strengthening over the next few hours and will make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a Category 1 hurricane later today. From there the system will start to weaken as it continues to move further inland in a north to northwesterly direction.
- Watches and warnings that are in place along the coast this morning include:
- A Hurricane Warning from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.
- A Tropical Storm Warning from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans, and from Intracoastal City to Cameron.
- A Hurricane Watch from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle and from Intracoastal City to Cameron
- A Tropical Storm Watch from East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- A Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City to Biloxi and for Lake Pontchartrain
- A Storm Surge Watch from Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Across inland areas:
- A Hurricane Warning is in place for New Iberia and Houma (LA)
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for Alexandria, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans (LA)
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in place for Gulfport and Biloxi (MS)
- Impacts from this system will include:
- Heavy rain and flooding: The heavy rain and flooding threat continues to be the greatest impact from Barry, as rainfall totals of 10-25” are expected across southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. This heavy rain is likely to lead to a major, life-threatening flash flood event across the region, and there is a high probability of flash flooding across southeastern Louisiana today. Across other portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley, rainfall amounts of 4-12” will be possible.
- Storm Surge: The threat of a dangerous storm surge continues today from southern Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, including Lake Pontchartrain, where the Storm Surge Warning is in place. The highest inundation is expected from Intracoastal City and Shell Beach where storm surge flooding of up to 6 feet will be possible if the surge of water is timed with high tide. This will send rising water inland to areas that are normally dry.
- Winds: Particularly around the area of landfall in south-central Louisiana, hurricane-force winds will be possible today, with tropical storm force winds expanding inland across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
Barry As Of Saturday Morning. As of the 7 AM CDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Barry had slightly strengthened with winds of 70 mph. The system continues to slowly approach the Louisiana coast, moving to the northwest at 5 mph. The center of the system was located 50 miles west-southwest of Morgan City, LA, or 60 miles south of Lafayette, LA. A weather station located at Eugene Island, LA, recently reported sustained winds of 71 mph with a wind gust of 85 mph.
Barry To Make Landfall Later Today. Barry will continue to move slowly toward the Louisiana coast this morning, making landfall in the next several hours. Even through the forecast cone doesn’t explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, some additional strengthening to hurricane strength is forecasted before landfall. As Barry moves inland in a north to northwest direction, weakening will begin, with the system becoming a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon. Even through this weakening will occur, rounds of heavy rain will continue through early next week across the lower Mississippi Valley and the western Tennessee Valley.
Hurricane And Tropical Storm Alerts. Due to the impact from Barry along the northern Gulf Coast, we continue to see Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings in place this morning. The area under Hurricane Warnings are where hurricane conditions (winds of 74+ mph) will be possible during the day. Along the coast, tropical alerts are in place for the following areas:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
Across inland areas:
- Hurricane Warnings are in place for New Iberia and Houma (LA)
- Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for Alexandria, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans (LA)
- Tropical Storm Watches are in place for Gulfport and Biloxi (MS)
We will be watching the potential for heavy/flooding rains, storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and tornadoes with Barry into early next week. Here’s a breakdown of the threats associated with Barry:
Heavy Rain And Flooding Threat
Heavy Rain And Flooding Event. We continue to watch the heavy rain and flooding that will result from Barry across the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley. This is likely to be the greatest impact from the system across the region as total rainfall amounts of at least 10-20” are expected across portions of southeastern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi. There continues to be the potential of up to 25” of rain in some locations. The heaviest rain with a tropical system typically falls along and east of the center of circulation, which would put places like New Orleans, Houma, and Baton Rouge in the expected heavy rain swath. On the closer rainfall map above, you can still see a bullseye of at least 15-20” of rain south of Baton Rouge and west of Houma. This multi-day rain event could lead to a life-threatening flash flooding event across the region beginning later today. Elsewhere across the lower Mississippi Valley (including on the west side of the track of Barry) and into the western Tennessee Valley, rainfall totals of 4-8”, with isolated 12” amounts, will be possible through early next week.
Flooding Potential. Especially by this afternoon, heavy rain bands are expected to be impacting portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi with rainfall rates of at least 2-3” per hour possible. This is likely to lead to one day totals (through Sunday morning) of 10-20” south and east of the overall track of Barry. As of this morning the trends have this axis of heaviest rain falling from Morgan City into Baton Rouge. This heavy rain in a short amount of time is expected to lead to significant and life-threatening flash flooding across portions of this region, and due to this there is a HIGH risk of flash flooding in place in southeastern Louisiana and far southwestern Mississippi. Heavy rain will continue to be possible as the system moves northward, with Moderate Risks of flash flooding in place Sunday from northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas back to the central Louisiana coast, and Monday across portions of northwestern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee.
Flash Flood Watches. Due to the heavy rain expected with Barry, Flash Flood Watches are in place from the northern Gulf Coast to western Tennessee and southeastern Missouri.
Storm Surge Threat
Dangerous Storm Surge. Coastal flooding will continue today, and we could see dangerous water rises along the coast due to a combination of storm surge and tide. This would cause areas that are typically dry to flood with water rushing inland from the shore. Already this morning a storm surge of 2.8” was reported at New Canal Station. If the peak water rises do coincide with high tide, we could see the following storm surge from Barry:
- Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
- Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
- Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
- Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
- Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft
Storm Surge Alerts. Due to the storm surge potential, Storm Surge Warnings are in place from Intracoastal City to Biloxi and for Lake Pontchartrain, with a Storm Surge Watch from Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Expected Peak Wind Gusts. While tropical storm force conditions are occurring across parts of southeastern Louisiana this morning, hurricane conditions will be possible later today in areas across south-central Louisiana that are under Hurricane Warnings. While strong tropical storm force winds will be possible as Barry pushes north into Louisiana, we will see the system start to weaken, which will help decrease the wind threat by Sunday and Monday across northern Louisiana and Arkansas.
Tornadoes Possible. With landfalling systems like Barry it’s typical to see at least the threat of isolated tornadoes within the stronger rain bands. The risk will be greatest today across southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi where there is a Slight Risk of severe weather.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
Activity in the Atlantic?
Here's the 5 day Atlantic Outlook from NOAA's NHC. Note Barry making landfall in the Lower Mississippi Valley. The NHC is also keeping an eye on a wave of energy in the central Atlantic that has a low chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days.
Take a look at how much precipitation has fallen across the nation since January 1st. Note that much of our big surpluses are across the Central US, where some spots are nearly a foot above average! Interestingly, Minneapolis is still nearly 6" above average for the year, while much of California is still dealing with a fairly impressive surplus! The only locations that are really below average are those in the Pacific Northwest! Seattle and Portland are nearly 4" to 6" below average.
One of the Hottest Weeks of Summer Brewing
By Paul Douglas
Business is pretty good, in spite of crazy weather. Just ask Gene Tousignant at G&M Tree Moving. We were browsing his tree farm near Empire yesterday and he put in a special request. "Paul, can you give me only a quarter inch of rain every Friday at 4 pm?" No problem. Gene said the persistently wet pattern meant only one full week of work for his team the entire spring. "The patterns are shifting - I don't remember anything like this going back 30 or 40 years." he said.
Welcome to a hotter, slightly drier pattern, with as many as 4 or 5 days at or above 90F just this week. An Excessive Heat Watch is posted today for heat indices in the upper 90s. Thundery lumps may bubble up anywhere at anytime in this hot tropical stew, but convection will be hit-or-miss.
Even hotter weather is possible by late week with mid-90s close to home, but models take the edge off the worst of the heat by late July.
Meanwhile the soggy remains of "Barry" flood Little Rock & Memphis; flooding hundreds of miles from landfall.
SUNDAY: Sticky sun. Thunder risk. Winds: S 5-10. High: 90.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds: S 5. Low: 75.
MONDAY: Tropical. Few storms bubble up. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 91.
TUESDAY: Muggy. More numerous t-storms. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 74. High: 86.
WEDNESDAY: Still steamy. Late PM storms. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 72. High: 89.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Mostly hot. Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 73. High: 92.
FRIDAY: Sizzling. Evacuate to cabin early. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 72. High: 94.
SATURDAY: Broiling. Hot July sun. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 73. High: 91.
This Day in Weather History
2003: At least eleven tornadoes hit Minnesota. Baseball-sized hail is reported at Indus in Koochiching County.
1936: The all-time record high is reported in the Twin Cities, with 108 degrees at the downtown Minneapolis office. 71 people would die in the Twin Cities on this day due to the extreme heat.
1916: Heavy downpours at New Ulm dump over seven inches of rain in seven hours.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 84F (Record: 108F set in 1936)
Average Low: 65F (Record: 50F set in 1930)
Record Rainfall: 3.17" set in 1915
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 18 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 32 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 26 minutes
Moon Phase for July 14th at Midnight
1.6 Days Until Full "Buck" Moon
"4:38 p.m. CDT - This month is when the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. The moon was also called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms now being most frequent. Sometimes it's also called the Full Hay Moon. There will also be a Partial Lunar Eclipse that will be visible primarily from most of Africa, Eastern Europe and western Asia. At maximum eclipse, the upper two-thirds of the moon's disk will be immersed in Earth's dark umbral shadow. "
What's in the Night Sky?
"On the evenings of July 12, 13 and 14, 2019, watch for the bright waxing gibbous moon to swing by the giant planet Jupiter. Fortunately, the king planet is so bright that this world can easily withstand the lunar glare. After all, Jupiter is the fourth-brightest light in the heavens, after the sun, moon and planet Venus. Venus is a morning object now, virtually lost in the sun’s glare, so there’s no way to mistake Venus for Jupiter in the July evening sky. Although the moon and Jupiter appear close together on the sky’s dome, these two worlds are nowhere close to one another in space. The moon, our closest celestial neighbor, is around its average distance from Earth (238,955 miles or 384,400 km) right now. Jupiter resides more than 1,700 times the moon’s distance from Earth. At present, Jupiter lies 4.42 astronomical units (AU) from Earth. One AU = one Earth-sun distance = 92,955,817 miles or 149,597,871 km. Jupiter is currently 5.29 AU from the sun."
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
"The World's Second-Largest Rainforest Is Losing the Carbon It’s Held for a Thousand Years"
"The Congo Basin is the second-largest rainforest on Earth, and like most tropical forests, it’s getting chewed up by humans. That’s a problem for the climate, and not just because trees are a natural sponge helping to mop up humanity’s ever-rising carbon emissions. New research suggests that as trees are replaced with fields for agriculture, carbon that’s been locked up in the Congo’s soils for hundreds to thousands of years is starting to seep out. Soils hold a tremendous amount of carbon—more than the atmosphere and living vegetation combined. About a third of that carbon resides in soils in the tropics, areas that are undergoing profound changes due to population growth, industry, and agriculture. As the trees are lost, scientists are wondering what’ll become of all the partly decomposed organic stuff locked away beneath them."
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