Excessive Heat on Sunday and Monday
 
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
 
The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued an Excessive Heat Watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
 
* TEMPERATURE...Highs in the lower 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s could make for heat indices around 100 Sunday and between 100 and 105 Monday. Low temperatures Sunday night should only fall into the mid 70s, providing little relief from the heat.
 
* IMPACTS...The high heat indices during the day will lead to increased risk for heat-related illness for those active outdoors or with limited access to air conditioning.
 
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Max Heat Index Values on Sunday and Monday
 
Here's the heat index forecast for Sunday and Monday, which suggests feels like temps approaching 100° or more across the southern half of the state. Monday will be the warmest day with a heat index approaching 105° in the Twin Cities during the afternoon. Stay cool out there everyone!
 

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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Here's the weather outlook for Sunday, which shows very warm temps in place across the entire state with readings warming into the 80s and 90s. These temps will be nearly +5F to +10F above average. Keep in mind that dewpoints will warm into the 70s across much of the state, so it will feel very hot and humid.
 
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Extended Temperature Outlook

Here's the temperature outlook over the next couple of weeks, which suggests warm, summer-like temperatures continuing. Temps will likely remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s, which will be above average for the 2nd half of July.

 

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Severe Threat Sunday

According to NOAA's SPC, there is a risk of severe weather across much of the state, including the Twin Cities on Sunday. It appears the greatest risk will be across parts of Central MN where a SLIGHT RISK has been issued. Large hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. 


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Weather Outlook Ahead

Weather conditions on Sunday and Monday look a little unsettled across the region with areas of showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.


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Rainfall Potential Through AM Tuesday

Here's the rainfall potential through AM Tuesday, which suggests pockets of heavy rain across the northern half of the state. Some spots could see 0.50" to nearly 1.0" in some of the stronger storms.

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Friday's Severe Storm South of MSP

A rogue thunderstorms rolled across parts of the state on Friday and just missed the Twin Cities Metro. It did, however, impact folks south of the metro will strong, damaging winds, small hail and heavy rain. Here's a picture of that storm as it was impacting Lakeville and Farmington.
 
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Storm Reports From Friday
 
Here are some of the storm reports from Friday, which included a number of tree damage reports and even downed power lines. 
 

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Tropical Storm Barry From the ISS
 
Take a look at the picture below from Astronaut Christina Koch aboard the International Space Station. This image was taken on Thursday, July 11th before it became a tropical storm and prior to landfall.
 
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"Slow-Moving Barry Makes Landfall Saturday In Louisiana Bringing Heavy Rain And Flooding - Dangerous Storm Surge - And Strong Winds To The Lower Mississippi Valley" 
 
Praedictix Briefing: Saturday, July 13th, 2019
  • Tropical Storm Barry continues to slowly move toward the Louisiana coast this morning with some slight strengthening occurring. As of the 7 AM CDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Barry had sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving to the northwest at 5 mph. The center of the system was located 50 miles west-southwest of Morgan City, LA.
  • Barry is expected to see additional strengthening over the next few hours and will make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a Category 1 hurricane later today. From there the system will start to weaken as it continues to move further inland in a north to northwesterly direction.
  • Watches and warnings that are in place along the coast this morning include:
    • Hurricane Warning from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.
    • Tropical Storm Warning from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans, and from Intracoastal City to Cameron.
    • Hurricane Watch from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle and from Intracoastal City to Cameron
    • Tropical Storm Watch from East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
    • Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City to Biloxi and for Lake Pontchartrain
    • Storm Surge Watch from Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
  • Across inland areas:
    • Hurricane Warning is in place for New Iberia and Houma (LA)
    • Tropical Storm Warning is in place for Alexandria, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans (LA)
    • Tropical Storm Watch is in place for Gulfport and Biloxi (MS)
  • Impacts from this system will include:
    • Heavy rain and flooding: The heavy rain and flooding threat continues to be the greatest impact from Barry, as rainfall totals of 10-25” are expected across southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. This heavy rain is likely to lead to a major, life-threatening flash flood event across the region, and there is a high probability of flash flooding across southeastern Louisiana today. Across other portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley, rainfall amounts of 4-12” will be possible.
    • Storm Surge: The threat of a dangerous storm surge continues today from southern Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, including Lake Pontchartrain, where the Storm Surge Warning is in place. The highest inundation is expected from Intracoastal City and Shell Beach where storm surge flooding of up to 6 feet will be possible if the surge of water is timed with high tide. This will send rising water inland to areas that are normally dry.
    • Winds: Particularly around the area of landfall in south-central Louisiana, hurricane-force winds will be possible today, with tropical storm force winds expanding inland across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Barry As Of Saturday Morning. As of the 7 AM CDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Barry had slightly strengthened with winds of 70 mph. The system continues to slowly approach the Louisiana coast, moving to the northwest at 5 mph. The center of the system was located 50 miles west-southwest of Morgan City, LA, or 60 miles south of Lafayette, LA. A weather station located at Eugene Island, LA, recently reported sustained winds of 71 mph with a wind gust of 85 mph.

Barry To Make Landfall Later Today. Barry will continue to move slowly toward the Louisiana coast this morning, making landfall in the next several hours. Even through the forecast cone doesn’t explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, some additional strengthening to hurricane strength is forecasted before landfall. As Barry moves inland in a north to northwest direction, weakening will begin, with the system becoming a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon. Even through this weakening will occur, rounds of heavy rain will continue through early next week across the lower Mississippi Valley and the western Tennessee Valley.

Hurricane And Tropical Storm Alerts. Due to the impact from Barry along the northern Gulf Coast, we continue to see Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings in place this morning. The area under Hurricane Warnings are where hurricane conditions (winds of 74+ mph) will be possible during the day. Along the coast, tropical alerts are in place for the following areas:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

Across inland areas:

  • Hurricane Warnings are in place for New Iberia and Houma (LA)
  • Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for Alexandria, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans (LA)
  • Tropical Storm Watches are in place for Gulfport and Biloxi (MS)

We will be watching the potential for heavy/flooding rains, storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and tornadoes with Barry into early next week. Here’s a breakdown of the threats associated with Barry:

Heavy Rain And Flooding Threat

Heavy Rain And Flooding Event. We continue to watch the heavy rain and flooding that will result from Barry across the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley. This is likely to be the greatest impact from the system across the region as total rainfall amounts of at least 10-20” are expected across portions of southeastern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi. There continues to be the potential of up to 25” of rain in some locations. The heaviest rain with a tropical system typically falls along and east of the center of circulation, which would put places like New Orleans, Houma, and Baton Rouge in the expected heavy rain swath. On the closer rainfall map above, you can still see a bullseye of at least 15-20” of rain south of Baton Rouge and west of Houma. This multi-day rain event could lead to a life-threatening flash flooding event across the region beginning later today. Elsewhere across the lower Mississippi Valley (including on the west side of the track of Barry) and into the western Tennessee Valley, rainfall totals of 4-8”, with isolated 12” amounts, will be possible through early next week.

Flooding Potential. Especially by this afternoon, heavy rain bands are expected to be impacting portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi with rainfall rates of at least 2-3” per hour possible. This is likely to lead to one day totals (through Sunday morning) of 10-20” south and east of the overall track of Barry. As of this morning the trends have this axis of heaviest rain falling from Morgan City into Baton Rouge. This heavy rain in a short amount of time is expected to lead to significant and life-threatening flash flooding across portions of this region, and due to this there is a HIGH risk of flash flooding in place in southeastern Louisiana and far southwestern Mississippi. Heavy rain will continue to be possible as the system moves northward, with Moderate Risks of flash flooding in place Sunday from northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas back to the central Louisiana coast, and Monday across portions of northwestern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee.

Flash Flood Watches. Due to the heavy rain expected with Barry, Flash Flood Watches are in place from the northern Gulf Coast to western Tennessee and southeastern Missouri.

Storm Surge Threat

Dangerous Storm Surge. Coastal flooding will continue today, and we could see dangerous water rises along the coast due to a combination of storm surge and tide. This would cause areas that are typically dry to flood with water rushing inland from the shore. Already this morning a storm surge of 2.8” was reported at New Canal Station. If the peak water rises do coincide with high tide, we could see the following storm surge from Barry:

  • Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
  • Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
  • Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
  • Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
  • Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Storm Surge Alerts. Due to the storm surge potential, Storm Surge Warnings are in place from Intracoastal City to Biloxi and for Lake Pontchartrain, with a Storm Surge Watch from Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

Wind Threat

Expected Peak Wind Gusts. While tropical storm force conditions are occurring across parts of southeastern Louisiana this morning, hurricane conditions will be possible later today in areas across south-central Louisiana that are under Hurricane Warnings. While strong tropical storm force winds will be possible as Barry pushes north into Louisiana, we will see the system start to weaken, which will help decrease the wind threat by Sunday and Monday across northern Louisiana and Arkansas.

Tornado Threat

Tornadoes Possible. With landfalling systems like Barry it’s typical to see at least the threat of isolated tornadoes within the stronger rain bands. The risk will be greatest today across southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi where there is a Slight Risk of severe weather.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
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Activity in the Atlantic?

Here's the 5 day Atlantic Outlook from NOAA's NHC. Note Barry making landfall in the Lower Mississippi Valley. The NHC is also keeping an eye on a wave of energy in the central Atlantic that has a low chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days. 


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8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
 
According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature oulook suggests warmer than average temperatures moving in across much of the Lower 48 by the end of the month. Unfortunately, folks in Alaska look to be dealing with above average temperatures as well.
 

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Central US Precipitation Since January 1st

Take a look at how much precipitation has fallen across the nation since January 1st. Note that much of our big surpluses are across the Central US, where some spots are nearly a foot above average! Interestingly, Minneapolis is still nearly 6" above average for the year, while much of California is still dealing with a fairly impressive surplus! The only locations that are really below average are those in the Pacific Northwest! Seattle and Portland are nearly 4" to 6" below average. 

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US Drought Monitor
 
The latest US Drought Monitor doesn't look all that bleak across the nation. In fact, most locations aren't dealing with any drought! The only spots that are a bit drier than normal is the Pacific Northwest, where a SEVERE Drought has been issued.
 

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One of the Hottest Weeks of Summer Brewing
By Paul Douglas

Business is pretty good, in spite of crazy weather. Just ask Gene Tousignant at G&M Tree Moving. We were browsing his tree farm near Empire yesterday and he put in a special request. "Paul, can you give me only a quarter inch of rain every Friday at 4 pm?" No problem. Gene said the persistently wet pattern meant only one full week of work for his team the entire spring. "The patterns are shifting - I don't remember anything like this going back 30 or 40 years." he said.

Welcome to a hotter, slightly drier pattern, with as many as 4 or 5 days at or above 90F just this week. An Excessive Heat Watch is posted today for heat indices in the upper 90s. Thundery lumps may bubble up anywhere at anytime in this hot tropical stew, but convection will be hit-or-miss.

Even hotter weather is possible by late week with mid-90s close to home, but models take the edge off the worst of the heat by late July.

Meanwhile the soggy remains of "Barry" flood Little Rock & Memphis; flooding hundreds of miles from landfall.
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Sticky sun. Thunder risk. Winds: S 5-10. High: 90.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds: S 5. Low: 75.

MONDAY: Tropical. Few storms bubble up. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 91.

TUESDAY: Muggy. More numerous t-storms. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 74. High: 86.

WEDNESDAY: Still steamy. Late PM storms. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 72. High: 89.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Mostly hot. Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 73. High: 92.

FRIDAY: Sizzling. Evacuate to cabin early. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 72. High: 94.

SATURDAY: Broiling. Hot July sun. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 73. High: 91.
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This Day in Weather History
July 14th

2003: At least eleven tornadoes hit Minnesota. Baseball-sized hail is reported at Indus in Koochiching County.

1936: The all-time record high is reported in the Twin Cities, with 108 degrees at the downtown Minneapolis office. 71 people would die in the Twin Cities on this day due to the extreme heat.

1916: Heavy downpours at New Ulm dump over seven inches of rain in seven hours.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 14th

Average High: 84F (Record: 108F set in 1936)
Average Low: 65F (Record: 50F set in 1930)

Record Rainfall: 3.17" set in 1915
Record Snowfall: NONE
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 14th

Sunrise: 5:40am
Sunset: 8:57pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 18 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 32 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 26 minutes
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Moon Phase for July 14th at Midnight
1.6 Days Until Full "Buck" Moon

"4:38 p.m. CDT  - This month is when the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. The moon was also called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms now being most frequent. Sometimes it's also called the Full Hay Moon. There will also be a Partial Lunar Eclipse that will be visible primarily from most of Africa, Eastern Europe and western Asia. At maximum eclipse, the upper two-thirds of the moon's disk will be immersed in Earth's dark umbral shadow. "

See more from Space HERE:

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What's in the Night Sky?

"On the evenings of July 12, 13 and 14, 2019, watch for the bright waxing gibbous moon to swing by the giant planet Jupiter. Fortunately, the king planet is so bright that this world can easily withstand the lunar glare. After all, Jupiter is the fourth-brightest light in the heavens, after the sun, moon and planet Venus. Venus is a morning object now, virtually lost in the sun’s glare, so there’s no way to mistake Venus for Jupiter in the July evening sky. Although the moon and Jupiter appear close together on the sky’s dome, these two worlds are nowhere close to one another in space. The moon, our closest celestial neighbor, is around its average distance from Earth (238,955 miles or 384,400 km) right now. Jupiter resides more than 1,700 times the moon’s distance from Earth. At present, Jupiter lies 4.42 astronomical units (AU) from Earth. One AU = one Earth-sun distance = 92,955,817 miles or 149,597,871 km. Jupiter is currently 5.29 AU from the sun."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

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Average Tornadoes By State in July
 
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in July is quite a bit less across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. However, folks across the Plains and Upper Midwest still see (on average) a fair amount of tornadoes. Note that Minnesota typically sees 11 tornadoes, which is the 2nd highest behind June when we average 15.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
 
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows nearly 1,300 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central uS and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through June 28th suggests that there have been a total of 1,295,  which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1048. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,626 tornadoes were reported.
 
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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Here's a look at high temps across the nation on Sunday, which shows some pretty warm weather across parts of the Central US, especially from Denver north to Minneapolis and Chicago. Note that temps in Chicago will be quite warm with highs approaching 90F!
 

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National Weather Outlook
 
The weather outlook through the rest of the weekend and into early next week shows the remnants of Barry moving north through the Lower Mississippi Valley with more heavy rain. Meanwhile, it'll be a bit unsettled across the Front Range of the Rockies and into the Upper Midwest with spotty strong to severe storms possible.
 

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Heavy Ranifall Potential
 
According to NOAA's WPC, significant rainfall will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley thanks to the remnants of Barry. There also appears to be another are of heavy rainfall across parts of the Upper Midwest. The Western US looks to remain dry. 
 
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"A DRONE, A $12,000 LENS, AND THE MAGIC OF A TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE"
 
"Total solar eclipses are the Super Bowls of astronomy. Teams of scientists develop game plans for capturing data months or years in advance of each one—as do amateur astronomers, working to create their own stellar images or execute their own studies—and it all comes down to a few precious seconds under the Moon’s shadow. When the clock runs out and the sun re-emerges, it’s game over. The eclipse on Tuesday in Chile and Argentina was a uniquely special experience. Not only did it occur during a so-called solar minimum, when activity in the sun’s 11-year cycle of energy release is at its lowest, thereby reducing the amount of “clutter” for certain kinds of research, it also happened to streak directly above several of the world’s most prominent observatories. Their operators chose the locations in Chile’s Atacama Desert because of the pristine viewing conditions there—conditions that also contributed to incredibly crisp and clear viewing of the eclipse, even if the big telescopes were shuttered for the event to protect their sensitive instruments."
 
 

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"Calculation Shows We Could Add a U.S.-Sized Forest to the Planet to Fight Climate Change"
 
"Trees are good for all sorts of things, like providing shade for picnics and habitat for animals. But they’re also a huge part of the efforts to combat climate change by sucking carbon dioxide out of the air. New findings were published on Thursday in Science show just how important a role they could play in climate mitigation efforts by calculating “Earth’s tree carrying capacity.” Right now there are estimated to be nearly 17 million square miles of forest cover on Earth, and there’s enough room to add another 3.5 million square miles of trees—a U.S.-sized chunk of land—to sequester even more carbon. There’s just one slight wrinkle: Climate change could make life in certain parts of the globe inhospitable for some of those new trees, particularly in the tropics. Despite trees being nearly everywhere, figuring out just how much tree coverage the planet has is a pretty challenging task. The Food and Agriculture Organization defines forest as any area with more than 10 percent tree cover. And the best way to really see just how much tree cover’s out there is using satellite data, which is exactly what the study turned to."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:


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"This Hurricane Proof House Made From 612,000 Recycled Plastic Bottles Can Withstand 326 MPH Winds"
 
"If you’re looking to build a new home on coastal waters where hurricanes are known to roam, you might want to skip the two-by-fours and cement and instead start drinking bottled soda. A Canadian company has recently completed construction of a home with exterior walls made from recycled plastic, and it’s claimed to be able to withstand winds gusting at over 300 miles per hour. Built by JD Composites, the three bedroom home is situated near the Meteghan River in Nova Scotia. Aside from a distinct lack of trees, gardens, and neighbors, the house looks like any other dwelling with a clean modern design and a minimalist facade. Inside it’s fully furnished and finished with drywall covered lumber walls, but the exterior is what makes the house appealing as a new, and seemingly much improved, approach to construction."
 
 

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"Are parts of India becoming too hot for humans?"
 
"Intense heat waves have killed more than 100 people in India this summer and are predicted to worsen in coming years, creating a possible humanitarian crisis as large parts of the country potentially become too hot to be inhabitable. Heat waves in India usually take place between March and July and abate once the monsoon rains arrive. But in recent years these hot spells have become more intense, more frequent and longer. India is among the countries expected to be worst affected by the impacts of climate crisis, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) say that even if the world succeeds in cutting carbon emissions, limiting the predicted rise in average global temperatures, parts of India will become so hot they will test the limits of human survivability. "The future of heat waves is looking worse even with significant mitigation of climate change, and much worse without mitigation," said Elfatih Eltahir, a professor of hydrology and climate at MIT."

See more from CNN Here: 


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"The World's Second-Largest Rainforest Is Losing the Carbon It’s Held for a Thousand Years"

"The Congo Basin is the second-largest rainforest on Earth, and like most tropical forests, it’s getting chewed up by humans. That’s a problem for the climate, and not just because trees are a natural sponge helping to mop up humanity’s ever-rising carbon emissions. New research suggests that as trees are replaced with fields for agriculture, carbon that’s been locked up in the Congo’s soils for hundreds to thousands of years is starting to seep out. Soils hold a tremendous amount of carbon—more than the atmosphere and living vegetation combined. About a third of that carbon resides in soils in the tropics, areas that are undergoing profound changes due to population growth, industry, and agriculture. As the trees are lost, scientists are wondering what’ll become of all the partly decomposed organic stuff locked away beneath them."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:


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Warm And Sticky Weather Continues - Heat Advisory For The Twin Cities Metro Through Monday