Warm & Sticky Tuesday Ahead
Here's a look at the peak dew point and heat index values across the state. Note that dewpoints will be as high as the low/mid 70s across the southern half of the state, which will be quite tropical. Also note that peak heat index values will warm into the lower 90s, so it'll be pretty warm & sticky.
Precipitation Potential Next Several Days
Here's the precipitation potential through next Monday, August 26th, which suggests areas of heavy rain possible across parts of the state. Some of this rain will be possible on Tuesday, but it appears that weather conditions could turn a little more unsettled as we approach the weekend ahead.
Fall Ragweed Allergies
It's that time of the year again where Fall Rageweed Allergy sufferers are starting to get sneezy and itchy. Oh yes, one of my favorite times of the year - NOT! I don't know about you, but I start getting bad around State Fair Time and that is right around the corner. If you're like me, start taking those allergy meds, hopefully you can start building up those immunities! The image below shows the steading increase in pollen levels over the last 30 days in Minneapolis. Keep in mind that pollen level will continue to rise and will be consistently in the "high" category over the next several weeks. Pollen levels won't really drop until we see our first frosts of the season, which on average arrive early/mid October in the Twin Cities.
"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"
"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."
"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"
"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."
"Phenology: August 13th, 2019"
US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on August 13th), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.
2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...
2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its wettest start to the year on record with 36.59" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 21st wettest year ever in recorded history. The Twin Cities is at its 2nd wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +9.14".
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, temperatures across the Western US will be warmer than average by the end of the month and early September, while folks in the Central US will be cooler than average.
Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the end of the month and into the early part of September. Note that highs in the 70s will be with us around midweek, but could warm to above average levels again by next weekend. We're also still getting indications of an even bigger cool down as we approach Labor Day Weekend.
One of the Cooler State Fairs In Recent Years?
By Paul Douglas
Most years the Minnesota State Fair is a tasty Sweat-a-Thon; throngs of overheated sugar-zombies searching for their next fix. I can relate because I'm one of them. I've been fasting all year, preparing myself for the 12 Best Days Not to Diet. After all, I have to get up to my winter weight.
The calendar says late August, but the maps look like something out of late September. By Thursday of next week it may feel like early Octobe,r with a stiff wind, choppy lakes and highs in the 60s - lows dipping into the 40s. Think of it as guilt-free A/C.
In the meantime today will feel like summer with low 80s and a few widely scattered thundershowers. A northwest breeze behind today's disturbance ushers cooler air south of the border, with a very comfortable start to the Minnesota State Fair Thursday and Friday. Dry weather may hang on much of Saturday, but have a Plan B Sunday, when T-storms may be more widespread.
In 8-9 days we'll all be scratching our heads, wondering how Mother Nature missed the hot/sweaty/fair memo.
TUESDAY: Warm sun. Stray T-storms. Winds: W 7-12. High: 83.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: N 5. Low: 60.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny and spectacular. Winds: N 3-8. High: 75.
THURSDAY: Cool & comfortable for MN State Fair. Winds: N 3-8. Wake-up: 57. High: 73.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, breezy and milder. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 55. High: 77.
SATURDAY: Some sun. Slight thunder risk. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 60 High: 79.
SUNDAY: Humid. T-storms maybe more widespread. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 62. High: 82.
MONDAY: Lingering showers and T-storms. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 64. High: 78.
This Day in Weather History
2002: Heavy snow impacts central Minnesota. It fell in a 10-20 mile wide band from southeast North Dakota to around Grantsburg, Wisconsin. Little Falls picked up 9 inches.
1916: Accumulating snow falls in south central Minnesota with 4.5 inches recorded in New Ulm, 4 inches in Farmington and Hutchinson, 3.5 inches in Montevideo, and 3 inches in Faribault.
1835: 6 inches of snow falls at Ft. Snelling.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 80F (Record: 97F set in 1972)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 40F set in 1950)
Record Rainfall: 2.23" set in 1981
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 51 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 51 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 hour & 46 minutes
Moon Phase for August 18th at Midnight
3.3 Days Before Last Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"Our chart – above – shows the moon in the early morning sky on August 21, 22 and 23. The green line represents the ecliptic, or approximate path of the sun, moon and planets across our sky. On the mornings of August 21 and 22, you’ll find the waxing gibbous moon sweeping close to the planet Uranus. They’ll be up late at night, too, but low in the sky. You’ll have a better view of them in the wee hours, or before dawn breaks. Of course, the moon and urnaus are nowhere near each other in space. The moon, our closest celestial neighbor, lies a little less than 250,000 miles (400,000 km) from Earth. Uranus, the seventh planet outward from the sun, lodges well over 7,000 times the moon’s distance from us. Also, don’t expect to view Uranus with the unaided eye. People with exceptional eyesight might be able to see Uranus as a faint speck of light on a dark, moonless night. Most likely, you would need binoculars (at least) and a steady hand (or a tripod) to see Uranus with the nearby bright moon obscuring this world these next several mornings. For that matter, you’ll probably need binoculars to spot Uranus on most any night. For the ultimate challenge challenge – catching Uranus with the eye alone – try your luck when the moon leaves this part of the sky, say, around new moon at the end of August. Read more: 2019’s closest new moon on August 30"
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
"Life in Miami on the Knife’s Edge of Climate Change"
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