Weather Outlook For Sunday, November 25th
 
High temps across the state on Sunday will again be quite chilly! Readings will only warm into the teens across the northern part of the state, while temps will top out into the 20s across the southern part of the state. Note that these readings will be nearly -10F to -15F below average.
 
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Temperature Outlook
 
Temperatures in the metro have been running nearly -6.5F below average so far this month. It certainly was nice to get back to the 40s on Friday, but not temperatures dipping into the lower 20s by midweek. Temps will be running well below average then, but we could sneak back up into the 30s as we approach the first weekend of December.
 


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"How To Tell If Your Symptoms Are The Flu Or Just A Cold"
 
"The flu and the common cold are nasty respiratory illnesses with some similar symptoms. Here’s how to tell the difference. In the winter literally everyone seems to be getting sick. Your coworker won’t stop coughing and your kid keeps coming home from school a snotty mess, and a box of tissues barely lasts you one day. Contrary to popular belief, cold weather does not make you sick — but respiratory viruses (namely, influenza) do tend to peak during the fall and winter. In the US, flu season typically lasts from October to March. However, a nasty case of sniffles and aches during the winter doesn’t always mean you have the flu. Often, it’s just a cold, which you can get any time of the year. The common cold and flu are both contagious respiratory illnesses that can make you feel miserable, but they are caused by different viruses. Some flu symptoms may mimic a cold, but the flu tends to be much more serious and deadly — so it’s important to know the difference between these two illnesses. Obviously, only a doctor can diagnose you, but knowing how to recognize symptoms is always helpful. So how can you tell if your symptoms mean you have a cold or the flu, and what is the best treatment? We spoke to Dr. Tania Elliott, an allergist and immunologist at NYU Langone Health in New York City, to find out."
 
 
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Cold and Flu Forecast - Minneapolis
 
According to Pollen.com, the Cold and Flu forecast through early next week suggests that we will be running and medium to medium-high levels. 
 
 
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"14 Ways to Avoid Colds and Flu"
 
"Are you avoiding your co-worker with that hacking cough, cold, or flu in the cubicle next to you? Do you draw your hand back from every doorknob? Have cold-and-flu phobia? Get a grip before the grippe gets you. Weve consulted dozens of medical experts to bring you 14 ways to avoid colds and flu this season. Every time you shake someones hand, wash yours: But dont stop there. Wash them as much as possible, says Mark Mengel, MD, chair of community and family medicine at Saint Louis University School of Medicine. Running lots of water over your hands will dilute any germs and send them down the drain. Keep your hands off: Touching your nose and your eyes may hurt you, Mengel says. Those are the most common places for germs to get in."
 
 
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"Ice rescue prompts angler safety warning"
 
"Despite high winds, thin ice and wide swaths of open water, a handful of anglers decided to try their luck on Upper Red Lake Saturday afternoon. When two of those anglers didn't come home, search teams scoured the lake. According to the Red Lake Police Department, the anglers were found after midnight, stranded on a chunk of ice which had broken off and drifted out into open water. They were rescued safely and treated for hypothermia. These kind of rescues are pretty common on Upper Red Lake. It's a large, shallow body of water. That means it often freezes early, but the ice can be unstable. Waves build up quickly, cracking apart ice sheets, sometimes with anglers onboard. In 2015, 50 anglers had to be rescued. But this year's rescue is earlier than usual. DNR recreation safety coordinator Lisa Dugan, sees it as a cautionary tale. "Some lakes may have frozen early," she said. "But with temperatures in the 40s coming up this week, it might not be safe." She recommends anglers stay off the ice until it's at least 4 inches thick, and head for land if it seems unstable at all."
 
 
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Recent Cold Weather Making Ice on Area Lakes and Ponds
 
Ok folks - I know there A LOT of eager anglers excited that the recent cold blast has been making ice on area lakes and ponds, BUT please make sure you aren't putting yourself in danger on newly formed ice! The MN DNR has some basic guidelines on how thick the ice should be before you even think about stepping out onto the ice! Also remember that ice is NEVER 100% SAFE!
 
 
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Winter Storm Sails South of Minnesota

Travel plans this weekend? If your post-Thanksgiving travels take you south near Kansas City, MO - Des Moines, IA - The Quad Cities, Madison, WI - Milwaukee, WI - Chicago, IL; you will have big weather impacts as a winter storm blows through. The heaviest snow will fall across the region on Sunday and wrap up early Monday. Heavy snow amounts of 4" to 8" will certainly make roads slushy and icy at times, so plan ahead!
 
 
Winter Storm Headlines
 
As of Saturday, a number of winter weather headlines had been posted across the middle part of the country, including Winter Storm Warnings from Kansas City, MO to near the Quad Cities. Snowfall tallies could range from 4" to 8" with winds gusting near 35mph! Note that Chicago is under a Winter Storm Watch as well, where heavy snow looks to fall across the region on Sunday.
 
 
 "Post-Thanksgiving Travel Will Be Impacted By Heavy Snow South"
 
"A swath of significant snowfall is likely across the Midwest, with the heaviest snow expected on Sunday. The area of greatest confidence in significant snow accumulations is from northern Missouri and southern Iowa into northern Illinois. Continue to check back for updates."
 
 
Snowfall Potential
 
According to the European Model (ECMWF), areas of heavy snow look to fall across parts of the Midwest and Central US Saturday to Monday This model is suggesting nearly a foot of snow from near Kansas City, MO to Southeastern Iowa and across central and northern Illinois and Indiana!
 

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Old Man Winter Is Still "All Hat, No Cattle"
By Paul Douglas
 
"Robots can't take your job if you're already retired" the big Prudential billboard shouted. "Hey Siri, are meteorologists about to become obsolete?" I hope not, but some days I wonder. One of the weather companies I'm involved with has an app ("Aeris Pulse"). I'm biased, but I think it's pretty good. That said, apps are digital french fries - a quick, tasty nugget of infotainment - but no long term substitute for a hearty, home-cooked meal.
 
Snack on Doppler, nibble on the 7-Day? Great! But none of my apps provide perspective, context or deep analysis. "Why is this happening, and how will I be impacted?" That's why many still pick up a newspaper or turn on a local TV or radio station. There's a place for new media and legacy media.
 
While wet snow shuts down Chicago today, a cold north wind blows across Minnesota. The first half of this week will feel more like January, with a coating of flakes late Thursday. By the time real moisture returns next weekend the atmosphere should be mild enough for a rainy mix. What a waste of cold air. So far winter is "all hat and no cattle".
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and gusy. Winds: N 15-25. High: 26.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and colder. Winds: NNW 10-15. Low: 15.

MONDAY: Lost of clouds. Dash of wind chill. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 24. 

TUESDAY: Numbing breeze. Flurries possible. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 12. High: 24.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Light winds. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 10. High: 27.

THURSDAY: Clouds increase. Flurries late. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 14. High: 30.

FRIDAY: Patchy clouds. Closer to average. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 25. High: 34.

SATURDAY: Warm enough aloft for rain or mix. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 31. High: 39.
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This Day in Weather History
November 25th

1977: Record lows are set across central Minnesota with lows in the teens below zero. Montevideo had the coldest temperature of 18 degrees below zero along with Long Prairie at 16 degrees below zero.

1820: Ft. Snelling is in the middle of a three-day blizzard that would dump nine inches of snow.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 25th

Average High: 36F (Record: 62F set in 1914)
Average Low: 21F (Record: -18F set in 1880)

Record Rainfall: 0.97" set in 1896
Record Snowfall: 5.3" set in 1952
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 25th

Sunrise: 7:23am
Sunset: 4:36pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 12 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~1 minute & 53 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 6 hours and 11 Minutes
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Moon Phase for November 25th at Midnight
3.7 Days Before First Quarter Moon

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What's in the Night Sky?

According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights: 

"On November 25 and 26, 2018 – before going to bed, look for the moon in your eastern sky. It’ll be a bright waning gibbous moon, and you might notice two bright stars in its vicinity. These stars are noticeable for being both bright and close together on the sky’s dome, and that is why – in legends of the sky – they often represent Twins. The stars are Castor and Pollux in the constellation Gemini. From mid-northern latitudes, they appear over your eastern horizon with the moon by around 8 to 9 p.m. From the Southern Hemisphere, they all ascend in the east a bit later in the evening. If you’re not one for staying up late, you can always get up before dawn to view the moon and Gemini stars in the morning sky. Then they’ll be in the west! The bright moon will make it difficult to see the entire, faint starlit figure of the Twins for the next few nights. But Castor and Pollux are bright! You should be able to pick them out, even when the moon is close."

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Northern Minnesota Phenology Report - November 20th, 2018
 
I've always been interested the outdoors and how the change of seasons impacts the birds, plants and animals. I did a little research and found this great weekly segment by John Latimer (Phenologist), who reports on KAXE Radio out of Grand Rapids, MN. Great stuff John - keep up the good work!!
 
 

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National High Temps - Sunday, November 25th
 
It was nice to be back in the 40s across the Upper Midwest on Friday, but temps are plummeting once again. Note that much of the middle part of the country will be below average.
 
 
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National Weather Outlook - Saturday, November 24th

Soggy weather will wrap up in the eastern half of the country on Sunday and the good news is that much of the precipitation will stay in the liquid for, however, folks in the higher elevations of the Appalachians and the Northern New England States will see a little icing. The bigger story will be the developing storm system in the Western US. Areas of heavy moisture will slide through the Inter-Mountain West on Saturday and move into the Plains through the rest of the weekend. Post-Thanksgiving travel plans will certainly be impacted as this storm moves east over the next few days.

Rain And Snowfall Potential

Here's the rain and snowfall potential through 7pm Sunday. Note areas of heavy moisture in the Western US eventually transitioning to heavy snowfall potential across the Central part of the country!

 

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"Both people and cities making hurricanes worse, including Katrina, say new studies"
 
"Human activity is making hurricanes worse, according to a pair of studies published on Wednesday in the journal Nature. Climate change increased rainfall from 5 percent to 10 percent in hurricanes Katrina (2005), Irma (2017) and Maria (2017), wrote two researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The other study, by scientists from Princeton University and the University of Iowa, finds that Houston’s urban footprint increased the odds of extreme flooding seen during Hurricane Harvey (2017) by about 21 times. Hurricanes are expected to grow only more intense and drop more precipitation in a warmer, wetter climate, even if they may also occur less frequently in the future. The conventional focus on the damage hurricanes cause cities has obscured, until this new paper about Harvey's effects on Houston, that urban asphalt and buildings cause atmospheric drag and friction that can change storms for the worse. Hurricanes are difficult to study. The swirling weather systems occur just a few dozen times annually, and the satellites capable of tracking them have been aloft less than 40 years. Air temperature, in contrast, is far simpler to examine. Nearly continuous measurements from all over the world date back more than a century."
 
 

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"Is it snowing earlier than usual? This weather map will tell you how annoyed you should be"
 
"It’s too early for this crap. Or at least that’s how it felt today to much of the northeastern United States, where residents were rudely greeted by a mid-November snowstorm that caught many by surprise. Not-so-cute hashtags like #SnowDay and #FirstSnow were trending on Twitter earlier amid reports that a wintry mix of ice and snow was causing travel nightmares and power outages along the I-95 corridor. Given that it’s been a warmer-than-usual fall in many areas, it’s easy to understand why folks might feel not quite ready for this sudden turn of events. Also, the sad reality is that climate change has probably made us collectively less tolerant of snowstorms."   Well, if you were wondering if it really did snow too early—or if it just feels that way—wonder no more. NOAA‘s National Centers for Environmental Information has produced an interactive map that reveals exactly when the first snowfall typically happens in your area. Sourcing data from the historical climate record, the map shows the date by which there is a 50% chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground. Just zoom into your area and click on the dot closest to your zip code. The map is powered by Esri. For fun (or torture), I zoomed into New York City and discovered that the earliest snowfall in Manhattan typically happens on November 18, which is three days from now. So yeah, it’s officially too early for this crap."
 
 

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"Video Shows the Health Impact of Cracking a Cold One in the Cold"
 
"New research suggests that colder climates can foster an unhealthy relationship with alcohol. Turning to booze during times of wintry malaise is nothing new. It’s cold and there’s not much to do besides stay inside — to notdrink takes more creativity. But while wintertime drinking may seem as natural as a Russian slugging a vodka or a Wisconsinite sipping a beer, this relationship has never been quantified scientifically. So the question becomes: Do all cold people really drink more, or do we just think that to make ourselves feel better? “It’s something that everyone has assumed for decades, but no one has scientifically demonstrated it,” Ramon Bataller, M.D., Ph.D., said Thursday. “We couldn’t find a single paper linking climate to alcoholic intake or alcoholic cirrhosis.” That’s how Bataller, the Chief of Hepatology at the University of Pittsburgh, became part of the first study to, he says, “systematically demonstrate that worldwide and in America, in colder areas and areas with less sun, you have more drinking and more alcoholic cirrhosis.” The video above, released alongside the study published in Hepatology, boils it all down to a simple, chilly point: Colder, darker days translate to more people drinking and more people getting sick from drinking."
 
 

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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