Snow on the Weber
We haven't had any major snow events in the Twin Cities just yet, but the Weber is starting to turning white a few more times as of late. Winter is one of my favorite times of the year to grill, especially when there's a big pile of snow on the ground. Happy grilling!
Weather Outlook Friday - November 9th
High temps on Friday will be VERY chilly for the early part of November. In fact, these temps are more typical of early/mid December! High temps will range from the upper 20s to near 30F in southeastern MN, while highs in the northwestern part of the state will only top out in the upper teens to near 20F. These readings will be -15F to -20F below average.
Temperature Outlook
Temperatures in the metro have been running nearly -2F below average so far this month and the next several days will continue to run significantly below average. In fact, temps through the middle part of next week look to continue to be more December-like. However, some of the extended forecast models are suggesting that temps will once again warm to at or even above average levels by the middle part of the month.
Weather Outlook Ahead

Weather conditions across the Upper Midwest will stay somewhat active through the end of the week and into the weekend ahead. The good news is that there aren't any huge storms on the horizon, but we will have light bouts of snow that could lead to minor snow accumulations across parts of the state. However, Marquette, MI is under a Winter Storm Warning from Friday to Saturday with snow accumulations that could be near 12"!!
Snowfall Potential
According to NOAA's NDFD, minor snow accumulations may be possible across the state through the end of the week/early weekend. Note the heaviest snow looks to fall across northern Wisconsin and across the U.P. of Michgan, where lake effect snow will start to develop over the next couple of days. Some spots there could see up to 12" or more!
November: Historically Dark, Cold and Slippery
By Paul Douglas

"No sun - no moon! No morn - no noon. No dawn - no dusk - no proper time of day. No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease.No comfortable feel in any member. No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees, no fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds! - November!" No one can accuse British poet Thomas Hood (1789-1845) of being a perennial optimist.

November and December are the darkest months; deepening cold accompanied by unusually gray and cloudy days. A double-shot of gloom for most. Ironically, January tends to be colder, but sunnier, as dry Canadian air finally sweeps away the crud.

Last night's clipper left behind a residue of snow and ice - leave extra time for the AM commute. This early cold wave lingers into early next week, with temperatures 15-20F colder than average. No sign of El Nino kicking in yet.

Although it will be cold enough for snow (no kidding) moisture is lacking - no plowable snows are brewing anytime soon.

A Pacific breeze kicks in late next week, with 40s. ECMWF hints at 40s to near 50F Thanksgiving week. By then we'll be due for a nice break.

Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Icy start. More flurries. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 26.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Light snow early. Clearing skies and turning windy. Winds: NW 15-25. Low: 14.

SATURDAY: Sunny start. Light PM snow and flurries. Winds: S 7-12. High: 29.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief thaw. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 24. High: 34.

MONDAY: More clouds than sun, still brisk Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 20. High: 27.

TUESDAY: Chilly, but more sun. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 13. High: 26.

WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sun. Breathing easier. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 14. High: 40.

THURSDAY: Blue sky. Grilling weather returns. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 27 High: 46.

This Day in Weather History
November 9th

2003: Parts of west central and north central Minnesota receive anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of new snow. Canby had the most at 6 inches and Benson measured 5 inches.

1977: A foot of snow falls in Western Minnesota. I-94 is tied up.

1850: The sky darkens at Ft. Snelling due to smoke from prairie fires.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 9th

Average High: 45F (Record: 70F set in 1999)
Average Low: 30F (Record: 12F set in 1945)

Record Rainfall: 1.28" set in 1970
Record Snowfall: 4.5" set in 1983

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 9th

Sunrise: 7:02am
Sunset: 4:51pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 51 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~2 minutes & 34 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 5 hours and 43 Minutes

Moon Phase for November 9th at Midnight
2.6 Days Since New Moon


What's in the Night Sky?

According to this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights: 

"This weekend is a good time to look for North Taurid meteors. This long-lasting shower – which, with its sister shower, the South Taurids – runs throughout late October and November. The nominal peak of the North Taurids is on the night of November 11-12, 2018. Generally, this shower is at its strongest for several hours, centered around midnight local time. This weekend, a waxing crescent moon sets at relatively early evening, providing moon-free skies for the expected peak date of the North Taurid meteor shower."

See more about the meteor shower HERE:

3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Heavy rain from the central Gulf coast northeastward across the Southeast, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Mon-Tue, Nov 12-13.
2.) Heavy snow across portions of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, Tue, Nov 13.
3.) Periods of heavy precipitation for south-central and southeastern (including the Panhandle) portions of Alaska, Sun-Thu, Nov 11-15.
4.) Much below normal temperatures shift eastward with time from the Great Plains to the Appalachians, Sun-Thu, Nov 11-15.
5.) High Winds in Maine, Sun, Nov 11.
6.) High Winds for south-central and southeastern (including the Panhandle) portions of Alaska, Sun-Tue, Nov 11-13.
7.) High significant wave heights for south-central and southeastern (including the Panhandle) portions of the Alaska coast, Mon, Nov 12.
8.) Flooding possible, and occurring/imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains.
9.) Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for most of the eastern third of the CONUS, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and portions of Texas, Fri-Mon, Nov 16-19.
10.) Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for the Northeast, Fri-Mon, Nov 16-19.
11.) Severe Drought across the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Northeast, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, California, the Northern Rockies, the Alaska Panhandle, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest.


 Temperature Outlook Friday - November 9th

High temps on Friday will be VERY chilly across much of the central US with high temps running well below average. In fact, folks from Minnesota to Texas will be nearly -15F to -20F below average. The only warm spots will be in Florida and California where readings will be above avearge.
Temperature Trend

Here's the temperature outlook as we head through the next few days. Note the very chilly blues and purples showing up across much of the nation. These temps will be quite a bit below average and will be more December-like rather than early November. 

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, November 15th - 21st will be cooler than average across the Eastern and Southern US, while folks in the western half of the country will be warmer than average during the middle part of the month.


Weather Outlook Ahead

Another storm system will cross the eastern two-thirds of the country through the end of the week and into the weekend ahead with areas of thunderstorms, heavy rain and snow. Weather maps are starting to look a little more late fall and winter-like. Areas of snow should become a little more common across the northern half of the country, some locations will likely have accumulations, which could last much of the winter in some of the normal spots.

7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests heavy rains continuing across the Eastern US. Some locations could see upwards of 2" to 4"+ through the end of next week. Folks in the Western half of the country will stay mainly dry expect for folks in the Pacific Northwest.

Snow Potential
Snowfall potential over the next 5 days will be fairly impressive across the high elevations across the Rockies, the Great Lakes and across the high elevations of the Northern New England States. The rest of the Central US will have spits and spats of light snow over the next few days.
US Drought Outlook

Extreme and exceptional drought conditions continue across the western half of the country and especially the Desert Southwest. Much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation remains drought-free with the exception of a few areas.

"NASA’s mission to ‘Touch the Sun’ just reached its first major milestone with close flyby"
It’s been a busy month for the Parker Solar Probe which, if you haven’t been keeping track, is currently moving fasterthan any man-made object ever and also closer to the sun than anything humans have ever built. The spacecraft launched a couple of months back, but it’s finally ready to do some science, and it just made it first close pass by our Sun, which is obviously cause for celebration. The probe, which will make dozens of passes of the star, achieved its closest distance of this particular loop (called “perihelion”) on Monday night. Now, its handlers back on Earth are eagerly awaiting word from the craft so that it can share whatever information it has gathered.

"The Ozone Hole Could Heal in Our Lifetimes, UN Reports"
"When the world gets its act together, it can actually solve big problems. Case in point: The ozone hole, which if everything goes according to plan could be healed up by the 2060s, according to a new report from the United Nations. According to the report, a decades-old international treaty to ban ozone-depleting chemicals has led to their decline and “much more severe ozone depletion in the polar regions has been avoided.” There’s still work to be done, but this definitely falls into the Good News category. “We’re at the turnaround point,” Paul Newman, a scientist who helps run NASA’s Ozone Watch and chaired the UN report, told Earther. The report is put out every four years, and this is its fifth iteration. It tracks a 1980s-era environmental problem we’re still feeling the effects of today. The ozone hole is driven by a number of chemicals that were commonly found in aerosol cans, air conditioners, and refrigerators, called chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons. Those chemicals unleash chlorine in the stratosphere, which in turn can break apart ozone molecules. When that happens, more ultraviolet light from the sun makes it to the surface, increasing the risk of bad things like skin cancer. The problem was particularly noticeable over Antarctica, where an ozone hole began to form each spring."

"NASA Video of "Weird Goings-On" in Comet's Tail May Rewrite Comet Science"
"Comet McNaught has been a bright, beautiful mystery since 2007, when a group of stupefied researchers at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C., captured it in a satellite image. The earthlings that first spotted the comet were struck by its brightness and its strange configuration. Not only was it so luminous that it was visible during the daytime from some parts of the Earth, but it also sported several long, peacock-feather-like tails. These tails are thought to hold important clues to how planets and moons were formed billions of years ago, but for years, they didn’t have all the tools to probe this question further. But that changed this week, when a Ph.D. student in London unraveled the mystery of Comet McNaught. Astrophysicist Karl Battams at the Naval Research Laboratory called it “one of the most beautiful comets we’ve seen for decades.” For all its beauty, however, Comet McNaught had strange patterns in its dust tail, detailed in the video above."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Remembering The Edmund Fitzgerald. Feels Like December