Not Exactly Snowmageddon: Quick Burst of Slush Overnight (1-2" north metro; 3-4" south metro)
November 5, 2013 — 4:16pm
Not Exactly Snowmageddon. Temperatures (air and ground) are simply too warm for a huge, snowy dumping. It's not going to happen. Here's 4 km NAM data with our own algorithms for conversion from rain to snow, showing a sharp north-south gradient in snowfall amounts across the area. I expect an inch or so from Willmar to Medina and Anoka, maybe 2" from Chaska and Minnetonka to Minneapolis and Shoreview, as much as 3" of slush for St. Paul and Mendota Heights, maybe 3-4" from Lakeville to Woodbury and Cottage Grove. A few spots in Scott and Dakota county could wind up with 5" of sloppy snow, but after melting and compaction of this (heavy/wet) snow it may wind up being closer to 3" actually on your lawn. I expect wake-up temperatures around 31-32F early Wednesday, so there may be some slushy/slick roads, but I expect MnDOT to keep the freeways mostly-wet overnight. Slow, yes, but hardly a worst-case scenario. Again, road conditions will get trickier as you head south of the Minnesota River later tonight and early Wednesday, but even there it will be borderline "plowable". Any snow in your yard should be gone by Thursday, Friday at the latest as temperatures rise into the mid-40s.
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Yesterday seemed to confirm my theory that most of Minnesota probably won't have to worry about drought this summer (in stark contrast to severe drought gripping much of the Dakotas). We've seen our fair share of hot days, but our heat spikes pale in comparison to what is on tap from the Midwest to the Mid Atlantic, where the heat index may exceed 110F this weekend. It's muggy out there, but at least we see a few dribbles of Canadian air in the coming days...
Low 80s felt pretty good yesterday, about 10F cooler than Monday as a weak frontal boundary pushed just south of Minnesota, allowing slightly cooler, drier air to dribble south. Much of today looks dry, but watch for a squall line of strong to severe T-storms reaching the metro by the dinner hour. A few more waves of storms push across Minnesota into Saturday, when a cooler front of Canadian ancestry rides to the rescue. The rest of the USA should be so lucky...
Well Monday was pleasant, if you're into hot weather oppression. Low 90s, but a high dew point made it feel more like 100F in the shade by late afternoon. Louisiana with lakes, instead of bayous. Today should be just as sticky but a few degrees cooler thanks to heavy showers and T-storms in the area. A few may turn severe later on, and watch for ponding of water, even flash flooding as T-storms keep redeveloping over the same counties. A surge of comfortable air is shaping up by Sunday and Monday.
Bright sun, cooler temps and much less humidity will make Sunday one of the nicest Sundays this summer, no question. We make a quick turnaround to sweaty weather again Monday with heavy rain potential this week. Check the blog for more. -Todd Nelson