Not Exactly Snowmageddon: Quick Burst of Slush Overnight (1-2" north metro; 3-4" south metro)
November 5, 2013 — 4:16pm
Not Exactly Snowmageddon. Temperatures (air and ground) are simply too warm for a huge, snowy dumping. It's not going to happen. Here's 4 km NAM data with our own algorithms for conversion from rain to snow, showing a sharp north-south gradient in snowfall amounts across the area. I expect an inch or so from Willmar to Medina and Anoka, maybe 2" from Chaska and Minnetonka to Minneapolis and Shoreview, as much as 3" of slush for St. Paul and Mendota Heights, maybe 3-4" from Lakeville to Woodbury and Cottage Grove. A few spots in Scott and Dakota county could wind up with 5" of sloppy snow, but after melting and compaction of this (heavy/wet) snow it may wind up being closer to 3" actually on your lawn. I expect wake-up temperatures around 31-32F early Wednesday, so there may be some slushy/slick roads, but I expect MnDOT to keep the freeways mostly-wet overnight. Slow, yes, but hardly a worst-case scenario. Again, road conditions will get trickier as you head south of the Minnesota River later tonight and early Wednesday, but even there it will be borderline "plowable". Any snow in your yard should be gone by Thursday, Friday at the latest as temperatures rise into the mid-40s.
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If it's any consolation I couldn't get up my driveway last night due to 3 foot drifts. And I was downright giddy about that - happy to see that it can still snow at MSP. It's Minnesota. It's January. Call me crazy but it should probably snow every now and then. Travel conditions improve today and the mercury tops 40F by Friday, but not mild enough - long enough - to totally ruin the fun for snow lovers. Another arctic smack may be brewing on or just after Super Bowl Sunday.
Minneapolis and St. Paul will be on the (sharp) northern edge of a heavy snow band. Much of far southern Minnesota will pick up a cool foot, with white-out conditions. Blizzard Warnings are posted south of Mankato, where no travel is advised. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Snow is on its way to the state as we head toward Sunday Night into Monday, and parts of southern Minnesota could see over a foot of snow. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect - click through for the details! - D.J. Kayser
It's complicated. Just once I'd like to see all the models agree on timing and amounts. Once. No such luck. NOAA models are pretty adamant about a major dumping by Monday, but ECMWF (European) models are trying to shift the heaviest snow band just south of the Twin Cities. That's about par for the course. We're not a lock on a foot of snow in the immediate metro, not yet. I'm hoping the storm crystallizes over the weekend.
Meteorologists may actually have something to track on their weather maps, after months of synchronized boredom and a parade of lackluster Alberta Clippers. The pattern has shifted, southern moisture will fuel a storm tracking just south of Minnesota early next week, and the result may be a significant pile of snow very close to home.