Not Exactly Snowmageddon: Quick Burst of Slush Overnight (1-2" north metro; 3-4" south metro)
November 5, 2013 — 4:16pm
Not Exactly Snowmageddon. Temperatures (air and ground) are simply too warm for a huge, snowy dumping. It's not going to happen. Here's 4 km NAM data with our own algorithms for conversion from rain to snow, showing a sharp north-south gradient in snowfall amounts across the area. I expect an inch or so from Willmar to Medina and Anoka, maybe 2" from Chaska and Minnetonka to Minneapolis and Shoreview, as much as 3" of slush for St. Paul and Mendota Heights, maybe 3-4" from Lakeville to Woodbury and Cottage Grove. A few spots in Scott and Dakota county could wind up with 5" of sloppy snow, but after melting and compaction of this (heavy/wet) snow it may wind up being closer to 3" actually on your lawn. I expect wake-up temperatures around 31-32F early Wednesday, so there may be some slushy/slick roads, but I expect MnDOT to keep the freeways mostly-wet overnight. Slow, yes, but hardly a worst-case scenario. Again, road conditions will get trickier as you head south of the Minnesota River later tonight and early Wednesday, but even there it will be borderline "plowable". Any snow in your yard should be gone by Thursday, Friday at the latest as temperatures rise into the mid-40s.
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NOAA's NAM model prints out 2.49" rain between now and late Monday night. Naturally. Major holidays attract storms and this Memorial Day should be no exception. I hope you had a chance to spend some time outside yesterday. The weather was so-so in the metro but gorgeous up north. Today and tomorrow: not so much. That said (while gritting my teeth) we do need the rain.
It's always a good idea to lower your expectations on a holiday, and Memorial Day is no exception. Today won't be all bad - some dim sun through increasing mid and high-level clouds. Showers and T-storms slosh into the state Sunday with the heaviest rain Sunday night into Monday morning. Skies may brighten up a little Monday afternoon, but don't count on it. Personally I'd make the most of today.
Thursday will be tough to top but we may come close today with less wind, a brilliant-blue sky and highs in the 70s. If you can start your holiday celebration today and Saturday you'll be in good shape. The potential for showers and a few embedded T-showers increases Sunday and Monday. Yep, looks like a holiday.
After a couple of cool days temperatures begin to mellow today and Friday, the two best days in sight. Saturday still looks like the best outdoor day of the holiday weekend. A few showers and T-showers may slosh into the state Sunday and Monday - probably not a steady rain, but have a Plan B for the latter half of the weekend - just in case.
It could be worse - it could always be worse, right? It won't snow, and the risk of severe weather is very low. Saturday looks fairly nice but some rain is likely Sunday with a few spotty showers and T-showers spilling over into Memorial Day. Not a continuous wash-out, but not exactly postcard-perfect either. Details in the blog.