Not Exactly Snowmageddon: Quick Burst of Slush Overnight (1-2" north metro; 3-4" south metro)
November 5, 2013 — 4:16pm
Not Exactly Snowmageddon. Temperatures (air and ground) are simply too warm for a huge, snowy dumping. It's not going to happen. Here's 4 km NAM data with our own algorithms for conversion from rain to snow, showing a sharp north-south gradient in snowfall amounts across the area. I expect an inch or so from Willmar to Medina and Anoka, maybe 2" from Chaska and Minnetonka to Minneapolis and Shoreview, as much as 3" of slush for St. Paul and Mendota Heights, maybe 3-4" from Lakeville to Woodbury and Cottage Grove. A few spots in Scott and Dakota county could wind up with 5" of sloppy snow, but after melting and compaction of this (heavy/wet) snow it may wind up being closer to 3" actually on your lawn. I expect wake-up temperatures around 31-32F early Wednesday, so there may be some slushy/slick roads, but I expect MnDOT to keep the freeways mostly-wet overnight. Slow, yes, but hardly a worst-case scenario. Again, road conditions will get trickier as you head south of the Minnesota River later tonight and early Wednesday, but even there it will be borderline "plowable". Any snow in your yard should be gone by Thursday, Friday at the latest as temperatures rise into the mid-40s.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
It's been a long, snowy slog, but spring will finally break out in the coming days with 50s giving way to a few 60s by next week. Most of the snow in your yard should be gone by Sunday or Monday (give or take a month). It's a dry pattern; in spite of a slight shower chance next Tuesday many towns in Minnesota should stay rain (and snow) free into most of next week. It's about time.
No question: we've earned our summer this year, more than most years. It was the coldest winter season in 4 years, with the most snow since 2010-2011. La Nina flavored our winter with a cold, wet bias, but I'd still bet a stale bagel next winter won't be as forbidding. Time will tell, but the headline is warmth, reluctant warmth is finally showing signs of paying Minnesota a visit. About time.
I'm as ready as you are to turn the page and celebrate the (very late) arrival of spring. We're almost there. Today's system may brush the metro with a coating of slush - maybe plowable for Rochester and Albert Lea but probably not in the metro area. Next week may restore some measure of faith in a fickle Minnesota spring.
Any moment now we're going to turn the corner. I suspect a "light-switch spring". Like turning on a light switch: slush to 60s in the meteorological blink of an eye. Maybe that's wishful thinking, but with a sun angle as high in the sky as it was in late August - at some point it HAS to warm up. Right? Right?
The weekend was an atmospheric freak show: the first Blizzard Warning at MSP since 13.6 inches fell on April 14, 1983. Hey, it gave us something to talk about. A common bond of shared weather-misery. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson