Not Exactly Snowmageddon: Quick Burst of Slush Overnight (1-2" north metro; 3-4" south metro)
November 5, 2013 — 4:16pm
Not Exactly Snowmageddon. Temperatures (air and ground) are simply too warm for a huge, snowy dumping. It's not going to happen. Here's 4 km NAM data with our own algorithms for conversion from rain to snow, showing a sharp north-south gradient in snowfall amounts across the area. I expect an inch or so from Willmar to Medina and Anoka, maybe 2" from Chaska and Minnetonka to Minneapolis and Shoreview, as much as 3" of slush for St. Paul and Mendota Heights, maybe 3-4" from Lakeville to Woodbury and Cottage Grove. A few spots in Scott and Dakota county could wind up with 5" of sloppy snow, but after melting and compaction of this (heavy/wet) snow it may wind up being closer to 3" actually on your lawn. I expect wake-up temperatures around 31-32F early Wednesday, so there may be some slushy/slick roads, but I expect MnDOT to keep the freeways mostly-wet overnight. Slow, yes, but hardly a worst-case scenario. Again, road conditions will get trickier as you head south of the Minnesota River later tonight and early Wednesday, but even there it will be borderline "plowable". Any snow in your yard should be gone by Thursday, Friday at the latest as temperatures rise into the mid-40s.
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It's nice to be getting rain without the lightning, hail and damaging winds for a change - a bit unusual for June. A showery holding pattern lingers today and Thursday, but the sun should become more noticeable again by Friday and the weekend as temperatures mellow. Expect relatively comfortable temperatures into early next week, but there are some signs of 90-degree heat as early as the end of next week. And NOAA has just issued an El Nino Watch for the upcoming winter. Let's not chat too much about the winter, if that's OK with you. Give it a few months...please.
Well, at least the weather wasn't a distraction yesterday - easier to focus on work, school or errands, I guess. Showers were light and the cooling breeze was a relief, but historic flooding continues from Pine County, Minnesota into Douglas County Wisconsin; the result of 2 month's worth of rain over the weekend. Some 6-10" amounts from this training T-storm complex reminds me of Duluth in June, 2012, when 10" amounts were reported nearby. That turned out to be a 500-year flood, and what just took place in northwest Wisconsin may turn out to be comparable.
Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints return as we begin this new work week, however a few showers and storms may linger across southern Minnesota Monday. We'll see drier weather for the middle of the week in the Twin Cities before more storm chances arrive by next weekend. Click for more details! - D.J. Kayser
Heat concerns continue Sunday with feels like temps nearing 100F by the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will also develop, some of which could be strong to severe. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
The weekend forecast looks very unsettled as multiple rounds of thunderstorms scamper across a stalled frontal boundary that will be draped across the state. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. I still think a BBQ or tee-time with Dad will be ok, but keep an eye/ear on your smart phone for any weather alerts. Check the blog for more detail. -Todd Nelson