Say It Ain't Snow !!
 
It was a little more than 2 weeks ago that an historic snow storm blew through parts of the Northern Rockies with as much as 2ft. to 4ft. of snow in Montanta! If you can believe it, we've got another strong storm on the way for the end of the week and weekend ahead, where some 6" to 18" amounts can't be ruled out! Note that Winter Storm Watches (Darker Blue Color) have been posted as close to us as the Dakota and the Red River Valley. The good news is that the Twin Cities (and much of Minnesota), should escape the worst of the plowable snow potential, but many of us will still likely see some of our first flakes of the season over the weekend.
 
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Probability of at Least 2" of Snow
 
The map below suggests the probability of at least 2" of snow through 7AM Friday. Note that most of the snow potential will be west of the Twin Cities and west of much of Minnesota for that matter. Again, it appears that parts of Minnesota will see some of its first snow flakes of the season, but the worst should stay west of us and impact us only as light snow flurries or a wintry mix this weekend. Stay tuned!
 

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Twin Cities 7 Day
 
Here's a look at the 7 day forecast for the Twin Cities. Note the big temperature swing from Wednesday to the weekend, which will be a near 30F drop in just a matter of days! Highs on Wednesday will be more typical of mid September, while highs this weekend will be more typical of mid November - YIKES! It could also be cold enough for snow and a wintry mix, which could be coming down horizontally with the strong winds expected this weekend. 
 
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Wednesday Weather Outlook
 
High temps ahead of the approaching storm system will be quite mild for the early/middle part of October. In fact, readings will be in the 60s and 70s across much of the state, which will be nearly +10F above average! Meanwhile, folks in the western Dakotas will be impacted by the cold front and will only warm into the 40s, which will be nearly -15F to -20F below average! 
 
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Windy Wednesday Ahead 
 
South to southeasterly wind gusts on Wednesday could approach 30mph across the state as our potent storm system approaches from the west. It appears that this large storm could keep strong winds in place right through the weekend. However, winds will feel MUCH colder on Saturday and Sunday as high temps only warm into the 30s and 40s, so there could definitely be a whiff of wind chill in the air at that point. 
 
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Saturday Weather Outlook

YIKES! What happened to October? High temps on Saturday may have a hard time even warming to 40F, which will be -20F below average and feel more like November. Saturday will test your patience and resilience to Minnesota weather. Strong winds and lingering wintry precipitation will make for a good indoor day. Stay tuned.

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Weather Outlook Late Week

Here's a look at our late week storm system that will be very potent and cause some issues across the region. Note that the heaviest snow appears to stay west of the Twin Cities through midday Saturday. It appears that much of the Dakotas will get the brunt of the plowable snow, while folks in Central MN will likely be dealing with just nuisance rain/snow showers this weekend. It's still a little too early to say, but there could be some slushy accumulations across the Red River Valley as well!

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Less Than 4 Weeks Until Daylight Saving Time

Believe it or not, we are less than 4 weeks away until daylight saving time. This year it will occur on Sunday, November 3rd. The good news is that we will have more daylight in the morning, but less light when you get home from work and school. The sunset in the Twin Cities on Saturday, November 2nd is at 6PM, but on Sunday, November 3rd, it will be around 5PM. By the way, the earliest sunset in the metro is 4:31PM during the first couple of December.
 
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Fall Colors Popping!
 
One of my favorite things about fall is the the beautiful display of color that nature provides. Take a look that this view from the Banning State Park that Justin Hockensmith caught on October 1st. According to the MN DNR, areas along the North Shore and in northern MN are seeing peak color right now, but unfortunately strong winds will likely have these beautiful leaves raining to the forest floor this week.  
 
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MN Fall Color Update
 
According to the MN DNR, the latest fall color report suggests peak color ongoing now across parts of northern MN, while much of the rest of the state is approaching 50% or more of peak color. 
 
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Typical Peak Color Across the State

According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities have to wait until late September/mid October. It's hard to believe, but fall colors will be here before you know it!

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How Does Weather Effect the Leaves?

Did you know that weather has a big impact on the fall color? Weather conditions that are either too wet or too dry can lead to premature displays or even dull, muted color displays. The best weather would be a warm, wet summer that gives way to sunny, cool fall days. Read more below:

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Minnesota Crop Progress & Condition - October 7th

"Corn dented or beyond was 94 percent, 17 days behind last year and 15 days behind the 5-year average. Thirtynine percent of corn was mature, 20 days behind last year and 15 days behind normal. Corn harvested for silage reached 58 percent this week, 15 days behind average. Corn condition was rated 54 percent good to excellent, improving marginally from the previous week. Ninetysix percent of soybeans were turning color or beyond, 2 weeks behind last year and 10 days behind the average. Eighty percent of soybeans have begun dropping leaves, 13 days behind last year and 9 days behind normal. Eight percent of the soybean crop has been harvested, 19 days behind last year and 15 days behind average. Soybean condition was rated 56 percent good to excellent."
 
 
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Average First Frosts of the Season Nearing...

Looking back at the last 30 years of data at the MSP Airport, the average first frost (32F or colder) is October 12th, which is only a few days from now. The earliest was on September 20th back in 1991, but the latest was November 18th in 2016. Last year, our first frost was on October 11th.

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First Frost of the Season at MSP This Saturday?

It is going to be quite cold later this week. In fact, it could be cold enough for our first frost of the season on Saturday. Take a look at low temperatures expected on Saturday morning. Note that most locations will dip into the 20s and lower 30s. Interestingly, this Saturday is October 12th, which is the average first frost in the Twin Cities metro!

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Wettest Start to Any Year on Record at the MSP Airport

Well, if you haven't noticed it's been pretty wet this year and according to the latest numbers, MSP is actually at its wettest start to any year on record (January 1st - October 6th) with a total of 37.12" of liquid. If we didn't pick up anymore precipitation for the rest of the year, this would be the 7th wettest year on record! By the way, the wettest year was in 2016 when we picked up 40.32", so we are only 3.20" away from that and we still have nearly 3 months left of 2019 left!
 

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