Severe Threat Late Saturday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a risk of severe storms across the southwestern part of the state. In fact, folks along and south of the I-94 corridor have the best chance of damaging winds and large hail late in the day. However, the greatest risk still appears to be southwest of the Minnesota River Valley.
Severe Risk Monday ??
"There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night across southern Minnesota. The main threat would be damaging wind. This forecast will likely change over the next few days."
Fall Ragweed Allergies
It's that time of the year again where Fall Rageweed Allergy sufferers are starting to get sneezy and itchy. Oh yes, one of my favorite times of the year - NOT! I don't know about you, but I start getting bad around State Fair Time and that is right around the corner. If you're like me, start taking those allergy meds, hopefully you can start building up those immunities! The image below shows the steading increase in pollen levels over the last 30 days in Minneapolis. Keep in mind that pollen level will continue to rise and will be consistently in the "high" category over the next several weeks. Pollen levels won't really drop until we see our first frosts of the season, which on average arrive early/mid October in the Twin Cities.
"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"
"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."
"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"
"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."
"Phenology: August 13th, 2019"
US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on August 13th), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.
2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...
2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its wettest start to the year on record with 36.36" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 21st wettest year ever in recorded history. The Twin Cities is at its 5th wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +7.68".
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook into the last full week of August suggests warmer than average temps returning to much of the naiton, including the Upper Midwest and especially across the Western US.
I can't believe that we are less than 1 week away from the MN State Fair already... good grief! The good news is that summere-like weather is here to stay for a bit longer as we slide through the 2nd half of August. In fact, for you heat lovers, it appears that we could be flirting with 90F again as we approach next week, which would likely come with an uptick in the humidity as well. According to the GFS, we may still have high temps nearing 90F within the last few days of the month! Stay tuned.
Nice Weather Pattern Last Half of August
By Paul Douglas
Much of central and southern Minnesota is running 5 to 15 inches wetter than average since June 1, the start of Meteorological Summer.
Weather tends to dry out in August, but a wet signal persists for much of the state. No drought this year, but farmers - who got a late start due to standing water in their fields - are hoping there won't be an early frost.
Amazingly, a pretty nice weekend is on tap. Today will be the warmer day, with low 80s and a south breeze. A band of showers and thunderstorms traverses the state tonight; a northwest breeze behind the front cooling us off a few degrees Sunday, but the sun should be visible much of the day.
Expect 80s early next week, followed by a midweek cool frontal passage that will take the edge off heat and humidity just in time for the first few days of the Minnesota State Fair. 70s, low humidity and a (deep-fried) blue sky sounds pretty good to me.
No 90s are brewing anytime soon, as Minnesota transitions into a slightly drier pattern. No complaints here.
SATURDAY: Some warm sun. T-storms at night. Winds: S 7-12. High: 82.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Storms likely. Winds: S 5. Low: 65.
SUNDAY: Increasingly sunny and pleasant. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 64 High: 78.
MONDAY: Sticky sunshine. Good and warm. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 84.
TUESDAY: Stray T-shower, then clearing skies. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 65. High: 80.
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Less humid. Winds: E8-13. Wake-up: 62. High: 79.
THURSDAY:Partly sunny for Day 1 of State Fair. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 60. High: 80.
FRIDAY: Lingering showers & storms. Winds: W 5-10. High: 78.
This Day in Weather History
1946: A tornado kills 11 people in the Mankato area around 6:52PM. A 27-ton road grader is hurled about 100 feet. Another tornado an hour later destroys downtown Wells.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 81F (Record: 100F set in 1947)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 42F set in 1962)
Record Rainfall: 1.62" set in 1905
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 59 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 48 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 hour & 38 minutes
Moon Phase for August 17th at Midnight
2.8 Days After Full "Sturgeon" Moon
"7:29 a.m. CDT - This moon marks when this large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water like Lake Champlain are most readily caught. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon — because when the moon rises it looks reddish through sultry haze — or the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon."
What's in the Night Sky?
"We’ve recently seen Orion’s return to the east before dawn, which means our northern summer is beginning to draw to a close. But the Summer Triangle asterism still rules the skies. It pops out first thing at nightfall and climbs highest up for the night at late evening. From mid-northern latitudes, Vega – the Summer Triangle’s brightest star – shines high overhead around 10 p.m. local daylight saving time (9 p.m. local standard time). Altair resides to the southeast (lower left) of Vega, and Deneb lies to Vega’s east (left). The Summer Triangle is not a constellation. It’s three bright stars in three different constellations, as the wonderful photo below – by Susan Jensen in Odessa, Washington – shows."
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
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