First Full Week of July
Welcome to the first full week of July where our average high temperature in the Twin Cities is nearly as warm as it will ever get during the year. The warmest average high for the Twin Cities is 84F from July 6th to the 21st.
A Look At Our Holiday Week
"Here's a look at your holiday week forecast. There are chances for storms late today through Thursday. Also, heat & humidity increase through mid-week. Please stay weather aware & check for forecast updates at . #MNwx #WIwx"
Mudslide Near Courtland, MN
A mudslide was reported near Courtland, MN on Sunday after very heavy rainfall over the weekend. Several locations saw more than 1", while a few locations had more than 2.5"!!
Weather Outlook
As we head through our 4th of July holiday week, weather conditions look fairly unsettled for parts of the Upper Midwest. Widely scattered showers and storms will continue as a slow moving cold front works across the region. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe along with more locally heavy rainfall.
Rainfall Potential
Here's the rainfall potential through PM Wednesday, which suggests areas of heavy rain falling across northwestern MN. Some spots could see up to 1" or more by the 4th of July. It appears that the Twin Cities could see areas of locally heavy rainfall as well, but would hold off until Wednesday night/early Thursday when the front actually sweeps through.
Severe Threats Ahead
According to NOAA's SPC, there will be a severe threat across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. At this point, the SPC has highlighted a better chance of severe weather on Wednesday with a SLIGHT risk in yellow from Mankato to Duluth, which includes the Twin Cities. This certainly could have impacts on any 4th of July fireworks displays that are planned, stay tuned!


 Extended Temperature Outlook

The extended forecast into the middle part of July shows hot weather continuing with highs warming into upper 80s and lower 90s. The GEFS model (top picture) seems to be a little warmer, while the ECMWF (bottom picture) shows more steady temps in the 80s.

Smoky Skies in San Francisco, CA
Thanks to @The_Jenius for the image below out of San Francisco, CA on Sunday where the skies looked quite eerie thaks to smoke from the "County Fire" in Yolo County, CA.
County Fire in Yolo County, CA
As of early Monday, Cal Fire was reporting that the "County Fire" north of the San Francisco Bay area had consumed more than 32,500 acres as was only 2% contained. The image below from @SFmeteorologist shows the smoke plume over San Francisco from Sunday, July 1st.
Fabio in the Eastern Pacific
As of early Monday, NOAA's NHC had been tracking our 6th named storm of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane season. Say hello to Fabio! The good news is that this good looking storm could will likely stay a "Fish Storm" or out to see, but it could become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) by Wednesday.
Earliest 6th Named Storm in the Eastern Pacific?
How about this? According to @philklotzbach, Fabio is the earliest 6th named storm of the Eastern Pacific on record, which breaks the old record of July 3rd in 1984 and 1985! It sure has been a busy season so far!
Tracking Fabio
As of Monday, Fabio was a hurricane, but the forecast has fabio becoming a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) by Tuesday and Wednesday, before decreasing to tropical storm strength on Friday.

Easern Pacific Outlook

Other than Fabio, the Eastern Pacific looks a little quiter than it has been. There was only one active wave versus several active waves.

Activity in the Atlantic? 

According to NOAA's NHC, the Atlantic Basin looks pretty quiet. At this point, there are no new tropical cycolnes expected during the next 5 days.

 Tropical Climatology (July 1st - 10th)
This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop in early July. Note that in the Atlantic, the points of origin correlate well with where the named storms have been developing in the Eastern Pacific. Also note that points of origin start showing up in the Central Atlantic in early July, but really heat up in August and September.
Average Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season
According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that activity (on average) in late June and early July remains pretty tame. Things really start to heat up in August and September though!

2018 Lightning Fatalities - EIGHT

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 6 people have died from lightning; 5 in Florida, 1 in Texas, 1 in Tennesee, and 1 in Arkansas. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

2018 Tornadoes So Far...

According to NOAA's SPC, there have been ONLY 571 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (through June 27th), which is quite a bit less than what we had at this time over the last several years. 2018, no question, has been a very quiet year in the national tornado department. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average. 

Average Tornadoes in July By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of July by state. Minnesota sees the most with 11, but interestingly, Minnesota see averages 15 tornadoes during the month of June, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 5 tornadoes in August, so we are still in our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.

3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Mon-Wed, Jul 2-Jul 4.
2.) Excessive heat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Central Appalachians, the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Jul 2-Jul 3.
3.) Excessive heat across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, and localized parts of the Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Mon, Jul 2.
4.) Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Fri, Jul 4-Jul 6.
5.) Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
6.) Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Severe Drought across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley, Great Plains, and western U.S.
7.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southwest, southern California, and the Central Rockies, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-Jul 13.
8.) Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Desert Southwest, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-13.
9.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Sat-Mon, Jul 7-Jul 9.
10.) Slight risk of episodes of excessive heat for portions of the northeastern quarter of the CONUS and Northern and Central Great Plains, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-Jul 13.
11.) Moderate risk of excessive heat for portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sat, Jul 7.
12.) Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of the Southwest, the Central Great Basin, and the Central and Southern Rockies, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-Jul 13.


Temperature Anomaly on Monday

The temperature anomaly across North America on Monday showed well average temperatures across much of the Eastern US and into eastern Canada, while cooler than average temps were found across the the western half of Canada.

Temperature Trend

Here's the temperature anomaly as we head into the first week of July. Note that parts of the western part country look to start off a little cooler than average, but heat looks to make a return as we head through the week. 


Weather Outlook Ahead

The weather loop below shows fairly active weather continuing across the Central US with strong to severe thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest as we head into the midweek time frame. There also appears to be areas of heavy rain across the Gulf Coast. 


7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain continuing across parts of the Central US. Several inches of rain can't be ruled out along with localized flooding, especially across the Upper Midwest and across the Gulf Coast Region. Meanwhile, the Western US looks to remain quite dry!

US Drought Outlook

Here is the national drought map from Thursday, June 26th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Heavy rains in June across the coastal bend of Texas helped with some of the drought there, but unfortunately it led to significant flooding.


Next 1-3 Weeks May Be Hottest of the Summer
By Paul Douglas

"Deep summer is when laziness finds respectability" wrote Sam Keen.

Welcome to peak summer! Historically, the hottest weather of the year arrives during the first or second week of July, which is a bit counter-intuitive.<p>Why not June 21, the Summer Solstice, when the sun is highest in the sky? There's an 'atmospheric lag'. Water warms up slower than land, and incoming radiation exceeds outbound energy until mid-July, when we finally start to cool off a notch.

Studying the maps I still think we'll wind up with at least 20-25 days at or above 90F this summer season. Average is 13.

The mercury should brush 90F today and again tomorrow as a south wind moistens up the air, fueling a few random T-storms Wednesday. The greatest risk will come late afternoon and evening; immediately after the period of maximum heating, the "high" for the day. With any luck storms may weaken in time for late evening fireworks displays. That's more of a prayer than a prediction.

A welcome dip in humidity Thursday into Saturday gives way to 90F again on Sunday but this weekend looks lake-worthy.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Storms north. Winds: S 10-15. High: 88.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunder. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 72.

WEDNESDAY: Sweaty and unsettled. Few T-storms nearby. Winds: S 10-15. High: 92.

THURSDAY:Getting sunnier. Slightly less humid. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 69. High: 86.

FRIDAY: Brilliant sunshine. A fine summer day. Winds: E 3-8. Wake-up: 64. High: 85.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Still fairly comfortable. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. More noticeable humidity. Winds: SW  10-15. Wake-up: 70. High: 91.

MONDAY: Steamy sunshine returns. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 70. High: 91.

This Day in Weather History
July 3rd

1947: Tornadoes hit Marshall and Polk Counties.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 3rd

Average High: 83F (Record: 100F set in 1990)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 47F set in 1967)

Record Rainfall: 3.70" set in 1879
Record Snowfall: NONE

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 3rd

Sunrise: 5:32am
Sunset: 9:02pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 31 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~51 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 6 Minutes

Moon Phase for July 3rd at Midnight
2 Days Before Last Quarter


 Temp Outlook For Tuesday

Tuesday will be a fairly mild and somewhat sticky day with highs in the 80s and dewpoints hovering in the mid/upper 60s and lower 70s.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, July 9th - 15th will be warmer than average across much of the nation.


"Here's a surprising extreme heat risk for 1 in 6 Americans"

"Psychiatric medications can interfere with the body's ability to regulate temperature, and most patients don't know, experts say. It hit 101 degrees Thursday in Wichita, and special education teacher Sherry White knows to stay inside. That's because this kind of heat -- currently making much of the country sweat -- can be especially dangerous for people like her, who take certain psychiatric drugs. White has fibromyalgia, which her doctor treats with Cymbalta, an antidepressant that helps treat the symptoms. But because of the drug, White's ankles swell, she sweats profusely, feels faint, and is short of breath when it gets too hot."

See more from NBC News HERE:

"Lightning strikes just feet away from police officer in Florida"
"A police officer in central Florida had a close encounter on Tuesday night when lighting struck near him in the department's parking lot. In surveillance video released by the Apopka Police Department, the canine officer can be seen placing equipment in his police SUV when the bolt struck nearby. The startled officer then jumps into his vehicle and shuts the door. The lightning strike appeared to be so powerful that it turned on the lights on another cruiser in the parking lot. No injuries were reported, but the Apopka Fire Department responded due to a haze in the building. The police department lost power in its building, and the strike damaged multiple electrical transformers, according to FOX35."

"'My bed was on fire': Minn. teen struck by lightning while lying in bed inside family lake cabin"
"A 15-year-old boy was struck by lightning early Saturday, June 30, escaping the ordeal with just marks on his back and shoulder—and a remarkable story to tell. Corey Wilmer of Oak Grove was sleeping in what the family calls the "Man Cave," a small cabin built on their park model property at Donneybrook Farms, a lake association on North Long Lake, north of Brainerd. Wilmer, a junior at St. Francis High School in St. Francis, said the lightning struck about 1:30 a.m. Saturday. His friend Josh Tope also was in the cabin and slept through the whole thing. "I was already awake. ... I've always been afraid of storms so I was trying to convince myself to fall asleep and it just struck," Wilmer said of the lightning strike. "We believe it hit the roof, traveling down through the siding here where it cracked and it happen to pass through me. The cabin took most of the lightning and I just took a part it."

"Squeezing Water From Air: Mysterious Machine Is A Lifeline On Caribbean Island"
"The machine pulls clean water out of thin air — literally. Sitting atop metal stilts in front of this island’s condemned hospital, an imposing, hunter-green shipping container serves as a lifeline for local residents in need of drinking water. Nine months ago, Hurricane Maria slammed Puerto Rico and damaged the system that feeds drinking water from the main island to Vieques. Moses West, 59, a retired Army officer from Texas, brought in the machine made by his company to help fill the void. He spends his days beside it, fine-tuning the repurposed 20-foot shipping container, which is capable of producing 3,500 gallons of water daily and holding 528 gallons in storage. He chats with the hundreds of people who have regularly arrived to fill up their containers with fresh water. They include restaurant workers, hotel owners and the fire department employees who collect water for people who can’t make their way to the machine."

"The Atlantic Ocean is invading the Arctic — and winning"
"The Arctic Ocean's boundaries are getting fuzzier as Atlantic waters push further northward and sea ice thins and melts more with each passing year, a new study finds. Why it matters: If this trend continues, it could have wide-ranging impacts on lucrative marine fisheries, and may already be altering the weather patterns affecting your daily life in ways researchers are only now discovering.The big picture: The Arctic is warming at a faster rate than any other region on Earth, and scientists have been documenting sweeping changes to the native ecosystems in this vast region. The fastest warming area of the Arctic is a remote expanse of stormy waters located north of Europe and Asia: The Barents and Kara Seas."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Sunday's Raging Rainstorm Was Atypical For July - More Storms For The Fourth?

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Excessive Heat Watch - Few Atmospheric Fireworks?