The extended forecast into the middle part of July shows hot weather continuing with highs warming into upper 80s and lower 90s. The GEFS model (top picture) seems to be a little warmer, while the ECMWF (bottom picture) shows more steady temps in the 80s.
Easern Pacific Outlook
Other than Fabio, the Eastern Pacific looks a little quiter than it has been. There was only one active wave versus several active waves.
According to NOAA's NHC, the Atlantic Basin looks pretty quiet. At this point, there are no new tropical cycolnes expected during the next 5 days.
Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 6 people have died from lightning; 5 in Florida, 1 in Texas, 1 in Tennesee, and 1 in Arkansas. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.
According to NOAA's SPC, there have been ONLY 571 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (through June 27th), which is quite a bit less than what we had at this time over the last several years. 2018, no question, has been a very quiet year in the national tornado department. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average.
Average Tornadoes in July By State
Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of July by state. Minnesota sees the most with 11, but interestingly, Minnesota see averages 15 tornadoes during the month of June, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 5 tornadoes in August, so we are still in our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.
1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Mon-Wed, Jul 2-Jul 4.
2.) Excessive heat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Central Appalachians, the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Jul 2-Jul 3.
3.) Excessive heat across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, and localized parts of the Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Mon, Jul 2.
4.) Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Fri, Jul 4-Jul 6.
5.) Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
6.) Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Severe Drought across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley, Great Plains, and western U.S.
7.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southwest, southern California, and the Central Rockies, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-Jul 13.
8.) Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Desert Southwest, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-13.
9.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Sat-Mon, Jul 7-Jul 9.
10.) Slight risk of episodes of excessive heat for portions of the northeastern quarter of the CONUS and Northern and Central Great Plains, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-Jul 13.
11.) Moderate risk of excessive heat for portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sat, Jul 7.
12.) Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of the Southwest, the Central Great Basin, and the Central and Southern Rockies, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-Jul 13.
Temperature Anomaly on Monday
The temperature anomaly across North America on Monday showed well average temperatures across much of the Eastern US and into eastern Canada, while cooler than average temps were found across the the western half of Canada.
Here's the temperature anomaly as we head into the first week of July. Note that parts of the western part country look to start off a little cooler than average, but heat looks to make a return as we head through the week.
Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather loop below shows fairly active weather continuing across the Central US with strong to severe thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest as we head into the midweek time frame. There also appears to be areas of heavy rain across the Gulf Coast.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain continuing across parts of the Central US. Several inches of rain can't be ruled out along with localized flooding, especially across the Upper Midwest and across the Gulf Coast Region. Meanwhile, the Western US looks to remain quite dry!
Here is the national drought map from Thursday, June 26th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Heavy rains in June across the coastal bend of Texas helped with some of the drought there, but unfortunately it led to significant flooding.
Next 1-3 Weeks May Be Hottest of the Summer
By Paul Douglas
"Deep summer is when laziness finds respectability" wrote Sam Keen.
Welcome to peak summer! Historically, the hottest weather of the year arrives during the first or second week of July, which is a bit counter-intuitive.<p>Why not June 21, the Summer Solstice, when the sun is highest in the sky? There's an 'atmospheric lag'. Water warms up slower than land, and incoming radiation exceeds outbound energy until mid-July, when we finally start to cool off a notch.
Studying the maps I still think we'll wind up with at least 20-25 days at or above 90F this summer season. Average is 13.
The mercury should brush 90F today and again tomorrow as a south wind moistens up the air, fueling a few random T-storms Wednesday. The greatest risk will come late afternoon and evening; immediately after the period of maximum heating, the "high" for the day. With any luck storms may weaken in time for late evening fireworks displays. That's more of a prayer than a prediction.
A welcome dip in humidity Thursday into Saturday gives way to 90F again on Sunday but this weekend looks lake-worthy.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Storms north. Winds: S 10-15. High: 88.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunder. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 72.
WEDNESDAY: Sweaty and unsettled. Few T-storms nearby. Winds: S 10-15. High: 92.
THURSDAY:Getting sunnier. Slightly less humid. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 69. High: 86.
FRIDAY: Brilliant sunshine. A fine summer day. Winds: E 3-8. Wake-up: 64. High: 85.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Still fairly comfortable. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. More noticeable humidity. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 70. High: 91.
MONDAY: Steamy sunshine returns. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 70. High: 91.
This Day in Weather History
1947: Tornadoes hit Marshall and Polk Counties.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 83F (Record: 100F set in 1990)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 47F set in 1967)
Record Rainfall: 3.70" set in 1879
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 31 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~51 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 6 Minutes
Moon Phase for July 3rd at Midnight
2 Days Before Last Quarter
Temp Outlook For Tuesday
Tuesday will be a fairly mild and somewhat sticky day with highs in the 80s and dewpoints hovering in the mid/upper 60s and lower 70s.
According to NOAA's CPC, July 9th - 15th will be warmer than average across much of the nation.
"Here's a surprising extreme heat risk for 1 in 6 Americans"
"Psychiatric medications can interfere with the body's ability to regulate temperature, and most patients don't know, experts say. It hit 101 degrees Thursday in Wichita, and special education teacher Sherry White knows to stay inside. That's because this kind of heat -- currently making much of the country sweat -- can be especially dangerous for people like her, who take certain psychiatric drugs. White has fibromyalgia, which her doctor treats with Cymbalta, an antidepressant that helps treat the symptoms. But because of the drug, White's ankles swell, she sweats profusely, feels faint, and is short of breath when it gets too hot."