Severe Threat Monday
 
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a MARGINAL risk of severe weather across parts of central and southern Minnesota on Monday. A marginal risk means that isolated severe storms will be possible and will be limited in duration and/or coverage and/or intensity. Stay tuned!
 
 
Weather Outlook
 
The weather outlook from AM Monday to midday Tuesday suggests widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across the Upper Midwest on Monday. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe, but the threat remains pretty limited across central and southern Minnesota. 
 
 
Rainfall Potential
 
The rainfall potential through PM Tuesday suggests fairly decent amounts thanks to thunderstorm activity on Monday. Note that most locations will see up to 0.25" to 0.50", while some locations could see up to 0.75" to 1.0"!
 
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Minnesota Drought Conditions
 
According to the latest US Drought Monitor that was released on Thursday, June 7th, drought conditions across the state have improved a little more since last week! Abnormally dry conditions have decreased from ~55% last week to ~35% this week and is confined to the northern half of the state. 
 

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Pollen Count - MEDIUM
 
Alright, well it looks like the worst of the spring allergy season is behind us, but according to Pollen.com, we are still running at MEDIUM allergy levels around the Twin Cities. The forecast through the week ahead keeps us in the medium category, with the exception of Monday when we drop to low levels thanks to rain. With that said, keep the Benedryl handy... ACHOO!!
 
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Extended Temperature Forecast

The extended forecast through June 25th & 26th shows fairly steady temperatures continuing over the next couple of weeks with highs generally in the upper 70s and 80s. The images below suggest the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) temperature outlook. Note that the GFS forecast keeps temps a little warmer with highs around 90F on Friday and Satudray, while the ECMWF keeps us a little cooler with highs around 80F.

 
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"This Guy Snapped Some Spectacular Pictures of a Tornado in Wyoming (With His Phone!)"

A Wyoming resident captured some amazing images of a tornado touching down in the plains Wednesday. The National Weather Service office in Cheyenne tweeted out a warning to residents asking them to take shelter. “Tornado north of Laramie is still on the ground. As picturesque as it may look, we ask that you take shelter now. No picture is worth getting hurt.” the tweet read. But that’s didn’t stop Aaron Voos from shooting breathtaking photos of the tornado on his phone, a Kyocera E6810 Duraforce Pro, as he was driving home. “I am not normally a storm chaser,” Voos told TIME. “We live 7,200 feet over sea level so tornados are very rare. We see a lot of storms and lightning but never a tornado like that, thats for sure. Hopefully it’s the first and the last.”
 
 

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Active in the Eastern Pacific
 
As of Sunday, there were 2 named storms in the Eastern Pacific; Aletta and Bud.
 
 
Aletta in the Eastern Pacific
 
Late last week, Aletta intensified into a strong category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140mph, but as of Sunday was a tropical storm with sustained winds 45mph.  
 
 
Tracking Aletta
 
The official NHC track for Aletta shows it continuing to weaken into the early week time frame. The good news is that this storm will continue to be a "fish storm" and will stay out at sea.
 
 
Tracking Bud in the Eastern Pacific
 
Bud is the 2nd named storm of the Eastern Pacific this season and as of PM Sunday had sustained winds of 65mph. Unfortunately, Bud could be a problem for folks along the Baja California Peninsula later this week.
 
 
Tracking Bud
 
The forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Bud has it becoming a Hurricane and potentially staying a hurricane through midweek. Note the forecast becomes a litte more interesting late this week as it nears the Baja California Peninsula. Stay tuned!
 
 
Atlantic Outlook
 
The Atlantic remains quiet in the wake of Substropical Storm Alberto that developed in the Gulf of Mexico 2 weeks ago. Interestingly, Alberto developed before the official start date of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is June 1st - November 30th and while it might seem a little early to see tropical systems develop at this time of the year, it isn’t unheard of. In fact, since 1950, NOAA says there have been 20 Atlantic based name storms that have formed prior to June 1st, 4 of which have occurred since 2012.
 
 
Tropical Climatology (June 11th - 20th)
 
This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop in early June. Note that in the Atlantic, the points of origin correlate well with where Alberto developed  2 weeks ago and the points of origin correlate well with where Aletta and Bud have formed in the Eastern Pacific over the last week.
 
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2018 Lightning Fatalities

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 4 people have died from lightning; 2 in Florida, 1 in Texas, and now 1 in Tennesee. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

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2018 Tornadoes So Far...

According to NOAA's SPC, there have been 449 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (June 2nd), which is less than what we had at this time over the last couple of years. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average. 

Average Tornadoes in June By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of June by state. Texas sees the most with 24, but interestingly, Minnesota averages 15 tornado this month, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 11 in July and 5 in August, so we are entering our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.

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3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Severe weather for parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota, Mon, Jun 11.
2.) Locally heavy rain for the middle to upper Mississippi Valley, Mon, Jun 11.
3.) Much below-normal temperatures for eastern mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Jun 11-12.
4.) Much above-normal temperatures for parts of the western U.S., Tue-Thu, Jun 12-14.
5.) A moderate risk of much above-normal temperatures for the interior Pacific Northwest, Sat-Fri, Jun 16-22.
6.) A slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and northern California, Sat-Fri, Jun 16-22.
7.) A moderate risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Southwest and central to southern Rockies, Sat-Mon, Jun 16-18.
8.) A slight risk of heavy precipitation for the desert Southwest, parts of the Great Basin, central to southern Rockies, and the central high Plains, Sat-Mon, Jun 16-18.
9.) A slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the central and eastern U.S., Sat-Wed, Jun 16-20.
Flooding occurring or imminent along the Savannah River and upper Missouri River basin.
10.) Severe Drought across parts of the Great Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, California, Oregon, and Missouri.

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Temperature Anomaly on Sunday

The temperature anomaly across North America from Sunday showed above average temperatures across much of the Central and Eastern US, while cooler than average temps were still in place across parts of the Northeast and now across the Western US.

Temperature Trend

The 850mb temperature anomaly shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the Central US as we head through the first half of the week. However, cooler than average temps will still be found in the Northeast, while another batch of cooler than average temps moves in along the Pacific Northwest and the High Plains before warming back up again.

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Weather Outlook Ahead

Weather conditions over the next few days will remain fairly active across the Eastern half of the country. A storm system moving through the Upper Midwest could fire up some strong to severe storms on Monday, while a stalled frontal boundary keeps things rather unsettled along and east of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, the Western half of the country looks to remain rather quiet and dry through the first half of the week.

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7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation across parts of the Central and Eastern US as scattered showers and storms continue there. Some of the heaviest could be found along a stalled frontal boundary that looks to set up from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States as stronger thunderstorms over the next few days. Meanwhile, folks in California look to remain dry.

US Drought Outlook

Here is the national drought map from Thursday, June 5th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Hopefully we'll be able to pick up some much needed precipitation in these areas as we head into summer, which starts in only 2 weeks! However, note the Southeast is drought free now thanks to a VERY wet month of May!

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Muggy Monday With A Few Strong Storms Late
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

I don't know about you, but I sure am enjoying the warm and somewhat humid weather as of late. Minnesotans are fickle. We are a little like Goldilocks and complain when the weather is too cold and suddenly too hot!

Dewpoints play a big factor is how we "feel". Anytime the direct measurement of moisture is below 60 degrees, it doesn't feel too bad. However, when that number gets into the 60s, it feels humid and anything in the 70s is tropical! The highest dewpoint ever recorded in the Twin Cities was 82 degrees on July 19, 2011. I think my sunglasses were even sweating that day, good grief!

It'll feel quite muggy on Monday as dewpoints warm into the mid/upper 60s ahead of a storm system that could bring strong storms to the region later. NOAA's SPC has parts of southern Minnesota under the highest severe risk, so stay tuned.

The front sweeps through Monday night bringing quieter, sunnier and more comfortable weather to backyards near you on Tuesday and Wednesday.

No 90s in the 7-day, but I'm sure we'll have plenty more this summer!
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Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Muggy. Strong PM storm chance. Winds: ESE 10-15. High: 78.

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers and storms end early, then clearing. Winds: Turning NNW 5-10. Low: 58

TUESDAY: More sun and much less humid. Winds: NNW 5-10. High: 79.

WEDNESDAY: Still nice! A few rumbles at night. Winds: W 5. Wake-up: 58. High: 82.

THURSDAY: Getting sticky again. Overnight storm . Winds: W 5. Wake-up: 60. High: 83.

FRIDAY: Humid. Late day storms. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 63. High: 81.

SATURDAY: Unsettled. Chance of T-showers. Winds: SSE 10-15. Wake-up: 65. High: 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few afternoon spits. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 82.
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This Day in Weather History
June 11th

2011: Severe thunderstorms bring extremely strong wind to central Minnesota. An unofficial wind gust of 119 mph is reported at a seed farm 1 mile northwest of Atwater. A storm chaser's car was battered when he got too close to the storm. Most of the windows in the car were broken.

1996: 5.91 inches of rain fall at Mankato. Mudslides close roads, including Hwy. 169, and push a trailer home 20 feet down a hill.

1922: A hailstorm at Maple Plain causes extensive damage to crops.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 11th

Average High: 78F (Record: 96F set in 1956)
Average Low: 57F (Record: 40F set in 1903)

Record Rainfall: 2.58" set in 1975
Record Snowfall: NONE
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 11th

Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 8:59pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 33 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~44 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 6 Hour 46 Minutes
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Moon Phase for June 11th at Midnight
1.5 Days Before New Moon

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 Temp Outlook For Monday

Here's a look at highs and dewpoints across the state on Monday, which suggests temperatures topping out around 80F across the southern half of the state, while folks in northern Minnesota will be closer to 70F. Dewpoints will also be a bit sticky, reaching the mid/upper 60s across the southern half of the state.

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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, June 18th - 24st will be cooler than average from New Mexico to Colorado, while warmer than average temps will be found across much of the rest of the nation.

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"Satellite Imagery Is Revolutionizing the World. But Can We Trust What We See?"

"IN 1972, the crew of Apollo 17 captured what has become one of the most iconic images of the Earth: the Blue Marble. Biochemist Gregory Petsko described the image as “perfectly representing the human condition of living on an island in the universe.” Many researchers now credit the image as marking the beginning of environmental activism in the U.S. Satellite images are part of the big data revolution. These images are captured through remote sensing technologies – like drones, aerial photographs and satellite sensors – without physical contact or firsthand experience. Algorithms refine these data to describe places and phenomena on the Earth’s surface and in the atmosphere. As a geographer, I work with geospatial data, including satellite images. This imagery offers a powerful way to understand our world. But I think it’s important for people to understand the limitations of this technology, lest they misunderstand what they see. Satellite imagery has made a difference in a wide variety of fields and industries. For example, in 1973, satellite images were first processed to demonstrate seasonal vegetation change. This information now helps to monitor vegetative health and track droughts around the world."

See more from Undark.com HERE:

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"NOAA: Like 2017, 2018 will be a record year for floods"

"Thanks to global warming-induced sea-level rise, coastal waters are increasingly spilling into communities. In a report released Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration quantified the extent of that inundation with some sobering statistics. The bottom line: As a whole, the U.S. is experiencing more coastal flooding than ever. NOAA scientists analyzed data regarding high-tide flooding —defined as flooding that causes public inconveniences, like road closures — from nearly 100 coastal water-level gauges across the country in the past meteorological year (May 2017 through April 2018). Since 2000, the report says, parts of the U.S., primarily along the eastern seaboard, have experienced more than a 250-percent increase in yearly flooding. “Due to sea level rise, the national average trend in high-tide flood frequency is now more than 50 percent higher than it was 20 years ago, and 100 percent higher than it was 30 years ago,” oceanographer and report author William Sweet said in a conference call with reporters. And in the coming meteorological year, he said, “Records are expected to continue to be broken.”

See more from Grist HERE:

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"This Mindblowing Video of The Moon Coming Down to Earth Is Totally Real"

One minute, you're chilling on a mountain. The next you're being dwarfed by the biggest Moon you've ever seen - one that seems to be coming right down to rest on Earth's surface. That's what appears to be happening in this video on NASA's Astronomy Picture of The Day (APOD) site for 4 June 2018. Of course, we all would have totally noticed if our planet's rocky satellite came down like that, ending life as we know it. So, what's going on here? For starters, check out the full video below, because it's spectacular: What you're looking at is the view of Mount Teide, a volcano in the Canary Islands - taken through a telescopic lens from really, really far away. The Moon we're seeing here is known as a 'milk moon' – the first full moon in the month of May. The footage was captured on May 30 by Daniel López. The people in the video are around 16 kilometres away (10 miles) from the telescope, and funnily enough, they are actually not watching the disappearance of the Moon. These folks are watching the sunrise, which is happening right behind the photographer. To them, the faint morning Moon wouldn't appear any larger than normal.

See more from Science Alert HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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