Sunday at the Fair

Crowds were reportedly 'not too bad' at the Fair on Sunday. That coupled with clouds, a decent breeze and a few sprinkles in the afternoon made for comfortable day to roam around. 

Visible Satellite PM Sunday

Here's an impressive visible satellite image from just before sunset Sunday evening. Note the thunderstorms ballooning over the Dakotas and Nebraska. These thunderstorms were expected to bring heavy rain to parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin through early Monday morning.


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"Climate Summary for August 2016"

No question, July and August were very wet months across the Midwest. Some spots across the state saw nearly a foot of water just during the month of August! Thanks to Mark Seeley from the MN Climate Office for this August Climate Summary below.

"Average temperatures for August from observers around the state were generally warmer than normal by 1 to 2 degrees F. The hottest periods during the month were over the first ten days, when daily Heat Index values soared above 100°F in several locations. Marshall (Lyon County) reported the highest temperature for the state on the 10th with a reading of 96°F. The lowest temperature for the month was just 37°F at International Falls on the 21st. For the first 8 months of 2016 temperatures have consistently been warmer than normal in Minnesota, placing this period as the 6th warmest in state history. The monthly total rainfall was above normal for most places in the state, except for a few isolated pockets of dryness. Many climate observers reported total monthly rainfall that was 2-3 times normal, and on a statewide basis it was the 3rd wettest August in history and wettest since 1980. For many communities it was a near-record or record wet August. Some examples include:"

11.85 inches at Red Wing
11.82 inches at Theilman (2nd wettest)
11.70 inches at Waseca (2nd wettest)
11.37 inches at Redwood Falls
9.70 inches at Chanhassen
8.96 inches at Twin Valley
8.74 inches at downtown St Paul
9.90 inches at University of Minnesota St Paul Campus
7.86 inches at Kabetogama
9.66 inches at Faribault (4th wettest)
10.21 inches at Milan (2nd wettest)
10.23 inches at Wabasha (2nd wettest)
8.36 inches at St Cloud (2nd wettest)
7.82 inches at MSP (6th wettest)

"Severe weather plagued the state during the month on several occasions: Over August 10-11 severe thunderstorms moved across the west-central part of the state, bringing 4-7 inch rains to the Willmar-Olivia area, and later in the day to Wabasha County. Then over August 23-24 heavy rains fell across portions of southeastern Minnesota delivering 2-3 inch amounts, and nearly 8.5 inches south of the border in Decorah, Iowa. Then over August 27-28 heavy rains, strong winds, and some tornadoes were reported in Polk and Norman Counties of northwestern Minnesota. Some farm buildings were damaged in Norman County. With the added rainfall from August, following a wet July, this summer season (June-August) now ranks as the 4th wettest in state history, as the average 3-month rainfall for the state was just shy of 16 inches. For the Twin Cities this has been the 8th wettest summer in history with a total rainfall of 17.40 inches."

See more from Mark Seeley's Weather Talk HERE:

Rainfall Past 30 Days

Here's the radar estimated rainfall over the past 30 days, which suggests some fairly significant tallies across the southern half of the state and into western Wisconsin. Some spots saw nearly 12" of rain!

Rainfall Past 60 Days

The radar estimated rainfall over the past 60 days suggests several locations across the central and southern part of the state with some 12" to near 18" amounts.

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HERMINE at Landfall Late Thursday Night

Here's a look at Hurricane Hermine just before landfall along the Florida coastline PM Thursday. Outer bands began whipping the state early Thursday, some of which produced severe weather with tornadoes and locally heavy rain. Interestingly, HERMINE was the first hurricane to affect the state since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, 11 years ago.

 
 HERMINE AM Monday
This was the view of Hermine AM Monday just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Bands of heavy rain shifted into the open waters of the Atlantic, but gusty winds were still affecting parts of the Northeast Coat. As of AM Monday, Hermine was a Post-Tropical Cyclone with sustained winds up to 70mph and is expected to remain at tropical storm strength was we continue through early this week. Note that there was still a very apparent center of circulation, but thunderstorms surrounding the center weren't quite as impressive as they were on Thursday evening just before landfall with the Florida Panhandle.
 
Topical Warnings Continue

Tropical Watches and Warnings have now been extended to parts of the Northeast in advance of Hermine as it stalls along the coast.

 

 

  Intensity Model
 
The forecast intensity for Hermine suggests that the overall intensity will remain at tropical storm strength over the next several days. While Hermine isn't forecast to become a Hurricane again, gusty winds and high surf along the coast will make for an interesting early week along the East Coast.
 
 
Tracking HERMINE
 
The forecast track from NOAA's NHC suggests that Hermine will SLOWLY track north/northwest over the next couple of days before turning back to the northeast. Folks along the coast will be susceptible to strong winds, heavier rain and coastal flooding.
 
Tropical Storm Force Winds
 
Here's a look at the Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probability through the end of next week. Note that some folks along the coast see up to a 40%-50% chance.
 
 
Spaghetti Plots
Now that Hermine has moved back over the open waters of the Atlantic, the Spaghetti plots seem to be a little more sure with it sitting nearly stationary for a couple/few days just off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast before moving northeast late this week/next weekend. The good news is that inclement weather conditions will slowly east over the coming days for folks along the coast.
 
Tracking HERMINE
 
Here's a forecast view of Hermine midday Monday, which shows a nearly stationary storm just off the Eastern Seaboard. Prolonged gusty winds, high coastal surf and heavier rain chances will continue for folks along the coast through the upcoming week.
Keeping and Eye on the Atlantic

While it may not look like much yet, NOAA's NHC is keeping an eye on this particular wave of energy as it has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days... Stay tuned!

Atlantic 5 Day Outlook

The National Hurricane Center will continue to watch the wave of energy in the Central Atlantic over the next few days. At this point, the forecast calls for less than a 40% chance of tropical formation within the next 5 days.

Tracking the Tropics

Spaghetti plots for this particular wave look a little interesting. The trajectory is something to keep an eye on as it heads northwest over the next several days.

 

 


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Muggy Labor Day With Locally Heavy Rain This Week

Time seems to go faster and faster the older I get. Having 2 kids, sports, jobs, chores around the house... it never ends. Where the heck did summer go? I guess my late father was right when he said, "Enjoy it now son, blink and it's over."

Labor Day Monday marks the unofficial end of summer and the last day of the Great Minnesota Get Together. Regretfully, everything on-a-stick went straight to my hips this year, but we can't complain too much about the weather. Not too hot, or too cold with a near average amount of rainfall days; just about perfect honestly.

AM puddles today give way to a muggy and somewhat unsettled afternoon. Despite a few pop-up thundershowers, most of the day looks dry until later this evening as a line potentially stronger storms rumbles our way.

Hermine, stalled off the East Coast, has created a meteorological log jam across the nation. The threat for thundery downpours continues for us much of the week with some locations seeing up to 1 to 3 inches of rain through Friday. Happy 'Soak-tember'.

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Extended Weather Outlook

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. Winds: SSE 10-15. Low: 66.

LABOR DAY: Warmer and muggier. AM puddles with storms developing late, some could be strong. Winds: S 10-15. High: 85

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers and storm likely with locally heavy rainfall. Winds: S 10. Low: 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered storms with locally heavy rainfall. Winds: NNE 5-10. High: 78

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous thundershowers. Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 78

THURSDAY: AM puddles, slow PM clearing. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 76.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, a few rumbles late. Winds: SSE 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 76.

SATURDAY: Lingering AM shower, breezy and cooler. Winds: W 5-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 72.

SUNDAY: Bright sun. Refreshing. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 55. High: 75.
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This Day in Weather History
September 5th

1990: Nine inches of rain falls in Duluth by the end of the following day, washing out $1,000,000 worth of roads.

1982: 77 mph winds are reported in Anoka County.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 5th

Average High: 76F (Record: 98F set in 1922)
Average Low: 57F (Record: 36F set in 1962)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 5th

Sunrise: 6:41am
Sunset: 7:42pm

*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~3mins & 2sec
*Daylight Lost Since Summer Solstice: ~2hours and 33mins
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Moon Phase for September 5th at Midnight
3.2 Days Before First Quarter

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Weather Outlook Monday

Labor Day Monday will be the warmest of muggiest of the long holiday weekend with some locations across the southern half of the state warming into the mid 80s with dewpoints approaching 70F. This mid-summer heat and humidity won't last very long though as readings are expected to get back to near normal levels by the middle part of the week.

Weather Outlook Monday

Winds will remain a bit breezy across the extreme southern part of the state on Monday with some gusts approaching 20mph. Winds across the northern half of the state will remain quite a bit calmer.

Weather Outlook Monday

After a round of heavier thunderstorms overnight Sunday/early Monday morning, weather conditions look to improve a bit for Monday. Lingering clouds and spotty storms will be possible across the central and northern part of the state during the day, but the next round of heavier rain and thunder will move in late Monday.

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar from AM Monday to PM Wednesday suggests that weather conditions will sour as we head into the week ahead. Waves of showers and storms look to push through the region, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

Rainfall Potential

Here's the rainfall potential through PM Wednesday, which suggests a fairly decent surge of moisture, which could lead to areas of flooding. Note that some areas could see up to 1" to 2"+, even around the Twin Cities metro!


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Severe Threat Monday

As the unsettle weather nears, strong to severe storms may develop late Monday...

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A LARGE MCS AND RELATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING OVER WI/UPPER MI...AS A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NW IA AND NE NEB THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THIS AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS NOW ACROSS ERN SD AND MN WILL MODIFY AND THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND MOVE TO THE N AS A WAA REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS MN. MLCAPE WILL RISE INTO THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO NEAR 70 F...BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE WAA WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE LINGERING RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS...WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THE APPARENT LACK OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS THE MOST OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE WAA ALONE WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN SD INTO SRN MN BEFORE MORE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO FORM IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...GIVEN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WITH TIME. STILL...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DARK...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES. THE SOMEWHAT MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR DIURNAL STORM INITIATION WILL BE NEAR AND SW OF THE TRIPLE POINT IN NEB WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING MAY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL SUPERCELLS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER...OR MERGE LATER WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SE SD. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS.

Severe Threat Tuesday

The severe threat appears to shift a little farther south on Tuesday. Here's the latest from NOAA's SPC:

...MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEY... CONVECTION IN THE DAY 1/MONDAY PERIOD WILL INFLUENCE SEVERE THREAT FOR DAY 2/TUESDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE ONGOING MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS AND DETERMINING THE EXACT POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE FOCUSED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH/EFFECTIVE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA NORTHEAST INTO WI. STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE /40+ KT/ FOR INITIAL SUPERCELLS...AND ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES...IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DETERMINE WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT MAY OCCUR...AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORM MODE. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH. WITH TIME...BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AFTER 00Z WILL SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS.

Severe Threat Wednesday

...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WI... THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND A BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...STRETCHING FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN KS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH 35+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN HOW POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE. GUIDANCE DEPICTS VARYING DEGREES OF ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING FROM EASTERN NEB INTO WI. IF THIS OCCURS...AND/OR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LIMITS HEATING...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAK DESTABILIZATION. AS SUCH...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO OUTLINE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FUTURE UPGRADE POTENTIAL.

7 Day Rainfall Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7 day rainfall forecast suggests fairly widespread 2" to 4" with isolated higher amounts, even close to the metro, through the end of next weekend.

Extended Weather Outlook

The extended temperature outlook through the first full week of September suggests warm and muggy conditions on Monday with muggier dewpoints as well. However, it appears that it won't last too long as readings settle back to near normal levels by the middle and end of the week. The middle part of the month could feature highs in the 60s!

 

6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a fairly decent chance of warmer than normal conditions settling in around the Great Lakes Region during the first full week of September. A bigger blob of cooler air will settle in across the Northwestern part of the country, which may drift our way as we approach the 2nd week of the month.

6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook

The national outlook suggests that much of the eastern part of the country will remain above average, however, there will be a fairly significant pocket of below average temps across the central and northern Rockies. 

High Elevation Snow?

Take a look at this! The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of western Montana above 6000ft. for snowfall accumulations that could approach 1" to 3" from through midday Monday.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...BOULDER HILL...ELK PARK PASS...HOMESTAKE PASS... BIG HOLE PASS...CHIEF JOSEPH PASS...LOGAN PASS...KINGS HILL PASS... FLESHER PASS...MACDONALD PASS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH ON MOUNTAIN PASSES...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR RIDGE TOPS.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...CAMPERS...HIKERS AND OTHER BACK COUNTRY ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY...WET SNOW AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. * HAZARD ELEVATION...FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.



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National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook shows the remnants of Hermine off the East Coast, which in turn will have impacts across the rest of the nation. Tropical systems tend to have ripple effects on other weather systems, so things don't move along as quickly as they otherwise would. High pressure will linger a little longer across the Eastern Great Lakes across the Mid-Atlantic States, while unsettled, wetter weather will linger across the Upper Midwest.

Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day forecast suggests heavier rain associated with Hermine will stay mainly offshore. Meanwhile, several rounds of showers and storms will keep the threat of locally heavy rainfall in place over the Midwest through much of the week.


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Lester in the Pacific

Here's a view of Lester in the Central Pacific as it was quickly moving away from the Hawaiian Islands. Interestingly, Remants of Lester could find there way into the Upper Midwest by late next weekened!

 

Tracking Lester

After making a close encounter with the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, the remnants of Lester will continue to drift north away from the Islands through the early week time frame. Interestingly, the remnants of Lester could make there way into the Upper Midwest by next weekend!

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"Study Suggests Earlier Onset of Human-Driven Warming"
 
"To fully understand the warming of the planet that is being driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases, scientists need to examine the history of climate changes on Earth. Hampering this effort is the fact that direct measurements of temperature and other climate data only go back to about the late 19th century. But by using records kept by the Earth itself, that history can be extended back hundreds or even thousands of years. In a study published in the journal Nature, a group of researchers has knitted together such natural records  — found, for example, in coral reefs, ice sheets and caves. They used those records to trace the thread of human-driven warming back to what they say is its beginning, nearly 200 years ago, when the coal-burning that took off with the Industrial Revolution was still revving up."
 
 

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"U.S., China Formally Join Paris Climate Pact"
 
"U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping fortified commitments to reduce carbon emissions Saturday by formally joining the Paris agreement and pledging a “continued bilateral climate cooperation.”  The leaders of the world’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases met Saturday at the G20 Summit in Hangzhou, China. By officially ratifying the climate agreement reached in April, the two countries move the Paris deal a major step toward taking effect this year, the White House said. More than 170 nations signed the Paris agreement, committing to fight climate change by cutting carbon emissions. The deal requires at least 55 countries representing 55 percent of global emissions to take the additional step of ratification before it takes effect. Before Saturday’s action by the U.S. and China, 24 nations had formally joined, accounting for just 1.08 percent of total global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the United Nations. The addition of the U.S. and China boosts that to roughly 40 percent ― about three-fourths of the required total, according to the White House."
 
 

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Thanks for checking in and have a great end of weekend and week ahead!
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Dwindling Daylight and a Wet Week Ahead - Hermine Forecast to Become a Hurricane Again

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Welcome to June 98th. Flash Flood Watch For Another 1-3" by Thursday