Minneapolis Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Sunday will be much less humid than it has been over the last several days and it is going to be quite a bit cooler as well with temperatures only warming into the Upper 60s, which interestingly, is right where we should be as we approach the end of September. The good news is that it will be drier around the state, so if you were stuck inside yesterday or want to get out for some fall color peeping, today is your day! With that said, there could be some lingering rain showers across the southeastern part of the state and a few isolated showers way up north.
 
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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Here's a look at high temps across the region on Sunday, which is going to be quite a bit cooler than it has been over the last several days. Most locations will only warm into the 60s, which is right where we should be during the 2nd half of the month. 
 
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Much Less Humid Sunday!
 
Take a look at dewpoints on Sunday and note how much cooler they will be than what they have been over the last several days. Many spots will see a nearly 20F dewpoint drop, which means that there will be half as much water in the atmosphere than there was before! 
 
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Weather Outlook AM Sunday to AM Tuesday
 
The weather outlook from AM Sunday to AM Tuesday looks quite a bit nicer and drier across much of the state as our storm system moves east. There could be some lingering showers across far southeastern MN and some isolated showers way up north on Sunday, but much of the rest of the state will stay dry. The first day of Fall (Monday) looks very nice with bright sunshine and mild temps. Tuesday should also stay dry with slightly warmer temps.
 

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Precipitation Potential Through Next Week
 
According to NOAA's WPC, there could be some fairly decent rainfall tallies across parts of the state over the next 5 to 7 days. Sunday throught Tuesday will be dry, but we're watching a couple of storms that could impact the region midweek next week and again late week. Stay tuned.
 
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"Good waterfowl opener expected this weekend"
 
"Duck hunting is expected to be good when Minnesota’s regular waterfowl season opens a half-hour before sunrise on Saturday, Sept. 21. “We’re continuing to see favorable counts of breeding ducks in Minnesota and North America so we hope hunters enjoy what’s shaping up to be a great season,” said Steve Cordts, Department of Natural Resources waterfowl specialist. This past spring, biologists estimated the total breeding duck population in Minnesota at 14 percent above the long-term average and nearly identical to last year’s estimate of 693,000 ducks. The estimated number of wetlands was 19 percent higher than last year and 23 percent above the long-term average, reflecting the wet year. Wetland numbers can vary greatly based on annual precipitation. The spring estimate for Canada geese was 110,000 birds, down 32 percent from last year’s estimate; however, reproduction during the spring and summer affects how many birds hunters see in the fall. Reproduction was good this year, so there are still plenty of geese around for hunters."
 
 

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Fall Colors Starting to Pop
 
Here's a great picture from the park staff at Itasca State Park located in the northern half of the state. This Maple Tree has 'popped' along with a few other trees in the area. The latest report from the area suggests that fall foliage is at 50% to 75% color now. 
 

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MN DNR Fall Color Update
 
The latest update from the MN DNR suggests fall colors well on their way across the state. Much of the northern half of the state is in the 25% to 50% range with a few pockets of 50% to 75% color. It seems like colors are coming a little sooner this year, doesn't it? At any rate, fall colors will continue to pop as we head through the next several weeks. Enjoy!
 
 
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Typical Peak Color Across the State

According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities have to wait until late September/mid October. It's hard to believe, but fall colors will be here before you know it!

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Average First Frosts of the Season Nearing...

Looking back at the last 30 years of data at the MSP Airport, the average first frost (32F or colder) is October 12th, which is less than 1 month from now! The earliest was on September 20th back in 1991, but the latest was November 18th in 2016. Last year, our first frost was on October 11th.

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Soggy September So Far...

It certainly has been a wet start to September. In fact, many locations around the state and around the region are running several inches above average. Green Bay, WI has had more than 5" of rain so far this month, which is by far the wettest start to any September on record! If Green Bay didn't see anymore rain this month, it would be the 2nd wettest September on record. Rochester, MN is off to its 5th wettest start to any September on record.
 
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3rd Wettest Start to Any Year on Record at the MSP Airport
 
It certainly has been a wet go of things across the Upper Midwest this year. In fact, the Twin Cities has had 34.36" of precipitation this year, which is the 3rd wettest start to any year on record (through September 21st). The top spot through that date belongs to 1892, when 35.08" of precipitation fell through that date. By the way, if we didn't see anymore precipitation through the rest of the year, this would be the 23rd wettest year on record at the MSP Airport.
 
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Fall Ragweed Allergies

AACHOO!! Fall allergy sufferers have been having some issues lately, but the good news is that pollen levels have been a little lower as of late. According to Pollen.com, our pollen levels will be holding in the low-medium range over the next several days.

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"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"

"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."

See more from HeathLine.com HERE:

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"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"

"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:

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"Phenology: September 10th, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week: "Phenology is the biological nature of events as they relate to climate.  Every week John Latimer takes a close look at the blooms and changes happening while considering how the timing measures up to past years in his Phenology Report.  He's full of clues and changing hues indicating that fall is happening in this week's report.  Take a listen!"
 
 
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US Drought Monitor

According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on September 17th), 0.00% of the state of Minnesota was either in a drought or abnormally dry! The last time 0.00% of the state was drought free was earlier this year in mid May. This has been an extremely wet year, no question!

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2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...

2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average, including the Twin Cities, which is more than 10" above average so far this year and at its 3rd wettest start on record. Unbelieveably, Rochester is already at its wettest year on record and it's only mid September!

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Atlantic Outlook

Things are still quite active in the Atlantic Basin with Jerry still ongoing and 2 other waves that have a high probability of tropical formation within the next 5 days.
 

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Tracking Jerry
 
According to NOAA's NHC, Jerry looks to track north toward Bermuda over the coming days and could eventually said right over the island late Tuesday. The good news is that Jerry is currently forecast to stay at tropical storm status and should be moving faster, so impacts won't be as severe.
 
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Points of Tropical Origin: September 21st - 30th
 
The first few of weeks of September are typically some of the most active times for tropical activity, which ocean waters are 'warmer' and upper level winds are typically a little less intense. The image below shows all of the tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. Note how many different systems have developed with their corresponding tracks.
 
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Average Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
 
Believe it or not, there is an actual date when things are typically the most active in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA's NHC, the peak is September 10th. That number is based off of the "Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years" - "The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season."
 
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Still Active in the Eastern Pacific
 
According to NOAA's NHC, there are 3 named storms ongoing with Kiko, Mario and Lorena. Lorena and Mario are the most concering storm as they will likely bring areas of heavy rain to parts of northern Mexico and into the Southwestern US.
 

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 National Precipitation Since January 1st
 
Take a look at the precipitaiton across the nation since January 1st and note how many locations are above average so far this year. Some of the wettest locations have been in the Central US, where St. Louis is nearly 14" above average and off to its 3rd wettest start to any year on record. It's also nice to see folks in California are still dealing with a precipitation surplus thanks to a very wet start to 2019. However, the last several weeks have been very dry there.
 
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US Drought Monitor
 
According to the US Drought Monitor, there a few locations across the country that are a bit dry, but there doesn't appear to be anything widespread or significant. However, areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest seem to a little bit more dry than others. We've also seen an uptick in the drought across the Southern Plains where severe and even extreme drought conditions have been popping up. 
 
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8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended outlook through the end of September and into early October suggests above average precipitation across parts of the northern tier of the nation, especially from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, folks in the southeastern US and into the northeast will likely be drier than average.
 
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Risk of Heavy Precipitation Across the Upper Midwest
 
According to NOAA's CPC, there is a moderate risk of heavy precipitation across parts of the Upper Midwest from Saturday, September 28th to Tuesday, October 1st. I know it's a long way out, but stay tuned!
 
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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook through the end of the month and early October suggests a pretty tight temperature contrast setting up across the Front Range of the Rockies. This could be a little concerning as several rounds of showers and storms maybe possible, some of which could be strong to severe along with areas of heavy rain. With that said, temps in the eastern half of the country will be warmer than average. 


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Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the end of September and into the early part of October. Note that temps will be quite a bit cooler as we head through the weeks ahead, but we should have some 'warmer' days yet and certainly warmer than average weather considering our average high now is in the 60s.

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Warmest September Temps on Record at MSP

Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of September. Note that there has only been (1) 100 degree day, which happened back in 1931. Highs in the 90s are certainly more common and have happened quite a few times. In fact, last year in 2018 we had a high of 92 in September and in 2017 there was a 94 degree high temp. Since 2000, there have been (9) 90 high temps during the month of September. 

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Much Less Humid Sunday. Fall Arrives Early Monday
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Ahh... Now that's more like it! Don't get me wrong, I like some humidity, but the tropical steam bath that we had over the last few days was a little much for September. Dewpoints have dropped nearly 20 degrees, which means there is half as much water in the atmosphere than there was nearly 24 to 48 hours ago.

Saturday's somewhat stormy weather will give way to much cooler and drier conditions Sunday. However, lingering showers will still be possible across northern and far southeastern MN as the storm system swirls out of the region.

The sun's most direct rays will shine over the equator at 2:50am Monday, which means the beginning of fall for the northern hemisphere. The Autumnal Equinox also marks equal day and equal night for everyone across the Globe. Note that we've lost nearly 3.5 hours of daylight since the Summer Solstice back in June and we'll still lose another 3.5 hours by the Winter Solstice in December.

Monday and Tuesday look like blue ribbon days, but more heavy rain potential is on the horizon late next week. Go figure.
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Cooler breeze. Isolated PM shower? Winds: WNW 7-12. High: 69.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, quiet and cooler. Winds: Calm. Low: 53.

MONDAY: Fall arrives at 2:50am. Bright sun. Winds: WSW 7-12. High: 75.

TUESDAY: Dry start. Late day thunder threat. Winds:SSW 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: 75.

WEDNESDAY: Windy. Spotty rain and rumbles up north. Winds: WNW 10-20. Wake-up: 57. High: 68.

THURSDAY: AM sun, PM clouds. Storms develop overnight. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 50. High: 68.

FRIDAY: Scattered showers and storms. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 54. High: 69.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 54. High: 70.
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This Day in Weather History
September 22nd

1996: A brief cold air funnel touchdown results in roof damage in Washington County.

1936: Summer-like heat continues with 101 at Ada, Beardsley and Moorhead.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 22nd

Average High: 70F (Record: 94F set in 1937)
Average Low: 50F (Record: 32F set in 1974)

Record Rainfall: 2.07" set in 1986
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1995
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 22nd

Sunrise: 7:00am
Sunset: 7:11pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 11 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 6 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 3 hours & 26 minutes
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Moon Phase for September 22nd at Midnight
1.2 Days After Last Quarter Moon

See more from Space.com HERE:

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What's in the Night Sky?

"The illustration at top by Tau’olunga via Wikimedia Commons shows the day arc of the sun, every hour – during the equinoxes – as seen on the celestial dome – from the equator. Also showing twilight suns down to -18° altitude. Note the sun at the zenith at noon and that the tree’s shadow is cast straight down. That is – as seen from the equator on the day of an equinox – a tree stands in the center of its own shadow. The 2019 autumnal equinox for the Northern Hemisphere (spring equinox for the Southern Hemisphere) happens on Monday, September 23, at 7:50 UTC. At this special moment – the instant of the September equinox – the sun is at zenith, or straight overhead, as seen from Earth’s equator. That’s the meaning of an equinox. The September equinox sun crosses the sky’s equator, going from north to south."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

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Average Tornadoes By State in September
 
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in September is quite a bit  across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. However, folks across the Plains and Upper Midwest still see (on average) a fair amount of tornadoes. Note that Minnesota typically sees 2 tornadoes, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). 
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
 
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,504 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through September 20th suggests that there have been a total of 1,504 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1219. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,784 tornadoes were reported.
 
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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
High Temps on Sunday will still be quite warm across much of the nation and especially for those in the Northeast. Note that temps from Washington DC to Portland, ME could be nearly +10F to +15F above average. 
 
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Widespread Record Warmth in the Southeast Next Week
 
Here are the expected high temperatures across the southeast next Thursday and Friday. Note the 'circled' numbers, those are potential record highs for those dates and there are quite a few of them! According to NOAA's CPC, the extended outlook really keeps us quite warm across the eastern half fo the nation through the end of the month and into the early part of October. Stay tuned!
 
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National Weather Outlook
 
Here's the weather outlook through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Note the cool front sweeping along and east of the Mississippi River Valley with widespread showers and storms moving east with it. Heavy rain looks to move into parts of the Southwest and interestingly, this moisture will be associated with the remnants of Tropical Storms Lorena and eventually Mario.
 

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Heavy Ranifall Potential
 
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests heavy rain across the Central US along a cool front that will slowly sweep through Central US through early next week. Also note the heavy rain that looks to fall across northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest as remnants from Lorena and Mario move through. Much needed precipitation will also continue in the Pacific Northwest. 
 
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"The First Hurricane Relief Drone Was Ready to Fly—Then Dorian Hit"
 
"A drone company on Great Abaco, in the Bahamas, was prepared to deliver emergency supplies if the hurricane struck. Dorian had other plans. As Hurricane Dorian whiplashed the Bahamas on September 1 with 185-mph winds, a drone with lifesaving potential was positioned at the Marsh Harbour airport on the island of Great Abaco. Designed to carry temperature-sensitive medicine, it could deliver urgent supplies such as anesthetics, insulin, and wound care materials when roads, airports, and even waterways left people stranded. Unfortunately, the winds demolished the cargo hangar and all its contents. “It’s a case of being too highly optimized,” says Andrew Schroeder, vice president of research and analysis for Direct Relief, a global humanitarian aid organization that had been testing the drone for disaster relief. “We were exactly right [in the location], and actually that turns out to be the problem.” This autonomous flyer had carried a container with sensors that continuously monitor temperature, called a Softbox Skypod, in its test flights. If it had survived the storm, it could have been the first drone to engage in hurricane relief. The drone was manufactured and owned by Volans-i, a San Francisco-based drone company that had partnered with Bahamian startup Fli Drone."
 

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"This Is Why We Don't Shoot Earth's Garbage Into The Sun"
 
"Imagine our planet as it was for the first 4.55 billion years of its existence. Fires, volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, asteroid strikes, hurricanes and many other natural disasters were ubiquitous, as was biological activity throughout our entire measured history. Most of the environmental changes that occurred were gradual and isolated; only in a few instances — often correlated with mass extinctions — were the changes global, immediate, and catastrophic. But with the arrival of human beings, Earth's natural environment has another element to contend with: the changes wrought upon it by our species. For tens of thousands of years, the largest wars were merely regional skermishes; the largest problems with waste led only to isolated disease outbreaks. But our numbers and technological capabilities have grown, and with it, a waste management problem. You might think a great solution would be to send our worst garbage into the Sun, but we'll never make it happen. Here's why."
 
 

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"New, Dire Climate Models Say the Planet Warms Faster Than We Thought"
 
"Two new models say the Earth is even more sensitive to emissions than we thought, and humanity has to work even harder to meet Paris agreement targets. Two new climate models predict that global warming due to climate change will be faster and more severe than previously thought, meaning humanity will have to work even harder to curb its emissions and meet the warming goals set out in the Paris agreement. If we continue to use fossil fuels to drive rapid economic growth, the new models say, mean global temperature could rise as much as 7 degrees Celsius by 2100, which is 1 degree higher than previous estimates. In terms of climate change, that’s a lot. “It is difficult to imagine the impacts of that level of warming,” Olivier Boucher, head of the Climate Modeling Center at the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace in Paris, said in an email. “But there would be dramatic for many natural and human systems. As a comparison, the difference between an ice age and interglacial period is 5 [degrees Celsius].” These models came out of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, part of the World Climate Research Program, and were unveiled at a press conference on Tuesday. The models will be factored in to future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports in 2021. Currently, the Paris Agreement—which is based on older climate models—wants to cap warming at 2 degrees Celsius."
 
 

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"Tropical Depression Imelda Has Dumped More Than 40 Inches of Rain on the Texas Gulf Coast"
 
"Tropical Depression Imelda might not have the same ring as Hurricane Imelda, but the impacts of the storm are for real. The National Weather Service has issued a civil emergency warning as a flooding crisis unfolds in the region rocked by Harvey’s historic floods just two years ago. Upwards of 40 inches of rain have fallen along the Texas Gulf Coast over the past 72 hours with the highest total of 41.81 inches reported so far. That makes Imelda the fifth wettest tropical cyclone to hit the Lower 48 on record, and it could rise in the record books in the coming hours. Embedded within the heavy rainstorm totals are shocking bouts of downpours. That includes nearly 30 inches of rain falling over a 12-hour period in Mayhaw Bayou, a weather station located about 60 miles east of Houston. Multiple locations have also reported one-hour rainfall in excess of five inches, which is, meteorologically speaking, a crap-ton of rain."
 
 

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"Study of ancient climate suggests future warming could accelerate"
 
"The rate at which the planet warms in response to the ongoing buildup of heat-trapping carbon dioxide gas could increase in the future, according to new simulations of a comparable warm period more than 50 million years ago. Researchers at the University of Michigan and the University of Arizona used a state-of-the-art climate model to successfully simulate—for the first time—the extreme warming of the Early Eocene Period, which is considered an analog for Earth's future climate. They found that the rate of warming increased dramatically as carbon dioxide levels rose, a finding with far-reaching implications for Earth's future climate, the researchers report in a paper scheduled for publication Sept. 18 in the journal Science Advances. Another way of stating this result is that the climate of the Early Eocene became increasingly sensitive to additional carbon dioxide as the planet warmed."
 
 
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"Current Hurricane Activity Raises Questions About The AMO - What Is It And Why Is it Relevant?"
 
"Have you taken a look at satellite view of the tropics right now? Hurricane Humberto, a major hurricane, threatens Bermuda. The remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda are drenching Southeast Texas, and several potential systems lurk in tropical regions that we look to at this time of the year. National Hurricane Center tropical meteorologist Eric Blake captures it best in this Tweet: Anyone want a tropical storm? They are forming like roaches out there! 6 at once in both basins combined is thought to tie a modern NHC record , with two other disturbances adding the cherries on top of a crazy busy day!  The hurricane basins of the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic are very active as seen in the picture below that I took at The Weather Channel early Wednesday morning. While likely not at the forefront of your thought processes this week, this active week prompted me to wonder about the status of something called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). What is it and why am I bringing it up during hurricane season?"
 
 
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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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