Below Average Most Of The Month So Far

For those who don't like the cold... well, this February isn't for you. Through the first 14 days of the month in the Twin Cities, we have only had three days where the high has been above average in the Twin Cities - and a day where the high was 26F below average.

We've seen 10 straight days with a below average high in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, and Rochester, with 11 days below average for areas like Brainerd and Park Rapids. As you head into northern Minnesota, however, the streaks are much shorter as highs climbed above average on Wednesday. At the same time, take a look at both Grand Forks and Sisseton, where the high has been below average for the past 30 days!

Bringing it back to the Twin Cities, overall only three days has had an average temperature (combining the high and low for the day) that was above average as well, with one other day that was exactly on average. With this cold weather, the average temperature this month has only been 13.2F, 5.2F below average. 


Coldest Wind Chills Friday Morning

Wind Chill Advisories were in effect across parts of southern and western Minnesota Friday morning as wind chills dipped into the -30s in spots. In the Twin Cities, the wind chill dropped as low as -21F.

The coldest wind chill (at an airport) in the state of Minnesota was in Fergus Falls, where it felt like -38F at one time Friday morning.


Get Out And Play In The Snow!!

With all the snow recently across the state, you might as well get out and enjoy it, right? According to the MNDNR, parts of western Minnesota and just about the northern half of the state has a snow depth of at least 18" as of Thursday. The most snow on the ground was in the Arrowhead, with Gooseberry Falls State Park reporting 36-40" of snow and Tettegouche reporting 42" of snow. You can check out snow conditions across the state for your next adventure in the snow at the MNDNR.

As of Friday morning, the MSP airport had 12" of snow on the ground, down from the 14" on the ground Tuesday and Wednesday mornings and 13" on Valentine's Day morning. Meanwhile, the snow depth in St. Cloud was 18", and there was 24" on the ground in Duluth.


More Snow Arrives Tonight - Staying Below Average
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

Who is tired of the cold (and snow)? I've had at least two layers of coats on just about every time I've gone outside over the past several weeks as we have struggled to find warmer temperatures. So far this month only three days have had an above average high at MSP airport, and our February average temperature is sitting at 5.2F below average.

Highs will stay below average in the teens to mid-20s for at least the next week in the Twin Cities. The extended outlook continues to show the potential of colder than average temperatures through the end of the month, but some models offer a glimmer of hope with highs near 30F next weekend.

Snow moves back into southern Minnesota tonight into Sunday, staying mainly south of I-94. That could bring up to an inch or so of accumulation to the Twin Cities, adding on to our already snowy month. We're now only 4.3" away from tying the record for the snowiest February on record (26.5" in 1962). While we may not prefer to see more snow at the moment, wouldn't it be fun to break the record?


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Late night snow. High 19. Low 14. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind E 3-8 mph.
SUNDAY: Snow across southern Minnesota. High 24. Low 8. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Cloudy Presidents' Day. High 19. Low 1. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Cold sunshine. High 16. Low 5. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: More southern Minnesota snow. High 21. Low 15. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 3-8 mph.
THURSDAY: Slow warming. A mix of sun and clouds. High 24. Low 16. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Potential of a few snow showers. High 26. Low 15. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 5-10 mph.


This Day in Weather History
ebruary 16th

1981: A significant warmup occurs across Minnesota. Highs in the 50s and 60s are common. 5 daily high records are broken in a row in the Twin Cities, with many others also broken statewide.

1903: A temperature of -59 is recorded at Pokegama Dam, tying the state record low at that time. It would not be broken for another 93 years.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
February 16th

Average High: 29F (Record: 60F set in 1981)
Average Low: 13F (Record: -26F set in 1936)
Average Precipitation: 0.03" (Record: 0.40" set in 1878)
Average Snow: 0.2" (Record: 3.2" in 1938)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 16th

Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Sunset: 5:42 PM

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 29 minutes and 40 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 56 seconds

*Next Sunrise At Or Before 7 AM: February 24th (6:59 AM)
*Next Sunset At Or After 6 PM: March 1st (6:00 PM)
*When Will We See 10 Hours And 30 Minutes Of Daylight? February 17th (10 hours, 32 minutes, and 38 seconds)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

Highs will be in the teens across the state Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun. Snow will be working across parts of southern Minnesota late in the day and into Saturday Night.

Highs will (once again) be below average across the state by a good 5-15 degrees.

And the below average highs will continue over the next several days here in the Twin Cities, with the coldest day of the next seven expected to be Tuesday. Warmer weather - with highs potentially around 30° - will be possible by next weekend. However, that still technically would be below average (though by just a few degrees).

We'll be watching the chance of snow here in the Twin Cities Saturday Night into Sunday, with maybe an inch or so at most. The better chance of higher snowfall amounts will be south of the Minnesota River.

It is in those areas south of the Minnesota River into southeastern Minnesota that will see the best chance of 2-4" of snow with the snow that moves in late Saturday into Sunday.


National Weather Forecast

On Saturday, an area of low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic will move offshore, bringing rain and snow across the region in the morning. Some lingering showers will be possible with the front across the Southeast throughout the day. Meanwhile, the next low-pressure area will start to move into the central U.S., bringing snow chances from the Northern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley, with ice possible in Kansas. Rain and snow will continue out west.

The heaviest rain through Sunday will be across parts of the Southeast, where rainfall totals of 1-3" will be possible.

We will have to keep an eye on the Southeast into next week, as additional heavy rain will be likely. Some areas of the Southeast will see the potential of 7"+ of rain over the next seven days. That could bring the potential of flash flooding along with it.

The heaviest snow through Sunday will be in the higher terrain out west, where areas of the Sierra could see an additional 2-4 feet of snow. A couple rounds of snow from Friday into Sunday will bring the potential of 6"+ of snow across parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska.


California Battles With Intense Flash Floods and Mudslides Amid Record-Breaking Rainfall

More from Earther: "California was hit this week with a massive atmospheric river, with the state bracing for potential mudslides and flooding. By Thursday, multiple counties were reporting record rainfall amid chaotic road closures and unprecedented flash floods. A highway in Riverside County outside of Los Angeles was completely eroded by flooding in staggering footage shared by the California Department of Transportation on Thursday. As of early Friday morning, road closures were still in effect throughout the region, and authorities cautioned drivers against attempting to drive through flooded areas."

Bluebonnets across Texas are starting to bloom

More from "Less than two weeks after groundhog Punxsutawney Phil predicted spring would arrive early this year, Texas is already living up to that forecast. Central Texas is preparing for “unseasonably warm” temperatures this weekend, and across the state, bluebonnets have begun to bloom — the telltale sign that spring is on its way. Typically, Texas’ state flower doesn’t begin to show its colors until later in the season. It hits peak bloom in late March or early April, covering fields around the state and establishing picturesque backgrounds for photo shoots."

Melting polar ice sheets will alter weather

More from Climate News Network: "The global weather is about to get worse. The melting polar ice sheets will mean rainfall and windstorms could become more violent, and hot spells and ice storms could become more extreme. This is because the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are melting, to affect what were once stable ocean currents and airflow patterns around the globe. Planetary surface temperatures could rise by 3°C or even 4°C by the end of the century. Global sea levels will rise in ways that would “enhance global temperature variability”, but this might not be as high as earlier studies have predicted. That is because the ice cliffs of Antarctica might not be so much at risk of disastrous collapse that would set the glaciers accelerating to the sea."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Saturday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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Below Average Temps. Sunday Snow Chance

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Snowy Sunday in Southern Minnesota