"The fear of losing everything in a natural disaster sits in the back of our minds no matter where we live. The same diverse physical geography that gives us sunny beaches and crisp mountain air also generates devastating storms and wildfires. Climate change is only making things worse. Data collection for these events has never been more consistent. Mapping the trends in recent years gives us an idea of where disasters have the tendency to strike. In 2018, it is estimated that natural disasters cost the nation almost $100 billion and took nearly 250 lives. It turns out there is nowhere in the United States that is particularly insulated from everything."
Weather Outlook For Saturday
High temps on Saturday will be fairly mild across southern half of the state with readings warming into the lower 70s. With that said, temperatures will actually be a little bit above average for a change. However, folks in the Northwestern part of the state will be stuck in the 50s, which will be a little below average for early May.
Weather Outlook AM Saturday to AM Monday
Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Monday, which shows a few showers possibly drifting through the region late weekend. At this point, we're not expecting much rain, but it could be a little soggy.
Warmer Saturday, Then Another Cool Stretch
Here's the weather outlook through the middle part of May, which suggests fairly cool temperatures for this time of the year. Other than a brief warm blip on Saturday and perhaps during the middle part of next week, temps look to be a bit cooler than average, especially in the European (ECMWF) model.
Below Average Temps Continue
Here's the 850mb temp anomaly, which shows another stretch of cooler than average temps moving in across the Upper Midwest as we head into the 2nd half of next week. In fact, it appears that temps could be quite a bit below average for the early/middle part of May.
Signs of Spring!!
Here's a neat map from Journey North, which shows the migration of one of our most beloved summer feathered friends, the hummingbird! It's amazing to think that they migrate across the Gulf of Mexico to make it all the way home. According to the map below, there have already been a few reports of hummingbirds across the southern part of the state. It's about time to get those feeders out!
"Phenology is the biological nature of events as they relate to climate. Every Tuesday morning, our resident Phenologist John Latimer gathers his phenological data and reports his findings in the weekly Phenology Report. In this week's report, John reflects on the 47 nature notes he jotted down this week and makes predictions about what we will see between now and this coming Tuesday! John created a sweet worksheet you can download and use to collect your own phoenological data. Wood frogs, spring peepers, roughed grouse drumming, eastern phoebes, ice out dates, and common loons are just a very small sampling of the kinds of data you can keep track of with his handy handout."
Tree Pollen Running High in the Twin Cities
Ice Out Dates
Ice out season continues in MN and according to the MN DNR quite a few more lakes have gone ice out over the past 5 to 7 days. Lake Minnetonka saw ice out on April 20th, which was nearly a week behind the average of April 13th. Lake Mille Lacs also went out on April 28th, which is 3 days behind the average of April 25th. Leech Lake saw ice out on May 2nd, which was 5 days behind the average of April 28th. Also, Lake Vermillion and Lake Kabetogema went out of April 30th, which is pretty close to average. Lake of the Woods' average ice out it on May 3rd, so we'll see when they go out.
Average Ice Out Dates
Here's a look at average ice out dates across Minnesota. Note that most lakes around the metro go out in April, so within the next week or 2, you should see open water. However, folks closer to the international border may not see open water until the end of April or early part of May. Spring is on the way!!
"April 22, 2019 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north. In the west, spring leaf out is 1-2 weeks early in parts of California and Nevada, and 2-3 weeks late in much of Oregon and Washington. In the east, spring leaf out is 1-2 weeks early in the upper Southeast, and 1-2 weeks late across the Great Plains, southern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Spring leaf out is four days late in Missoula, MT and Minneapolis, MN. Spring bloom has arrived on time to 2 weeks early in much of the South. Parts of Arizona, California, Nevada, and the Southern Great Plains are 1-2 weeks late. Spring bloom is on time in Philadelphia, PA, and Cincinnati, OH."
By Paul Douglas
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 70.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds, chance of a T-shower late. Winds: WSW 5-10. Low: 46.
SUNDAY: Showers return, possible thunder. Winds: N 8-13. High: 56.
MONDAY: Showery rain expected. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 44. High: 57.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a cool breeze. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 45. High: 58.
WEDNESDAY: Cold rain, pretty raw. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 41. High: 50.
THURSDAY: Showery rains linger. Spring on hold. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 43. High: 51.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Little sunburn concerns. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 42 High: 58.
This Day in Weather History
1926: Morris goes from winter to summer temperatures in one day. The morning low was 32, followed by a high of 89.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 66F (Record: 91F set in 1952)
Average Low: 45F (Record: 22F set in 1967)
Record Rainfall: 1.01" set in 1959
Record Snowfall: 2.0" set in 1890
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 24 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 39 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): ~5 hours and 39 minutes
Moon Phase for May 4rd at Midnight
0.3 Days Since New Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights:
"Before dawn these next several mornings – May 4, 5 and 6, 2019 – watch for meteors in the annual Eta Aquarid meteor shower to streak across the heavens in an inky dark sky unmarred by moonlight. We expect the morning of May 5 to showcase the peak number of meteors. But try the morning before and/or after as well, as this meteor shower has a relatively broad peak. Although the shower can be seen from all parts of Earth, the Eta Aquarids are especially fine from Earth’s Southern Hemisphere, and from the more southerly latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Appreciably north of 40 degrees north latitude (the latitude of Denver, Colorado; Beijing, China; and Madrid, Spain), the meteors are few and far between. The reason has to do with the time of twilight and sunrise on the various parts of Earth. To learn more, check this post on why more Eta Aquariid meteors are visible in the Southern Hemisphere. It’s also helps to know that – as seen from all parts of Earth – the dark hour before dawn typically presents the greatest number of Eta Aquariid meteors."
National Weather Outlook