Midday Update: Big North-South Variation In Tuesday PM Snowfall
November 4, 2013 — 2:01pm
On Edge. Here is the 12z 4km NAM solution, showing potential snow amounts across central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Note the sharp gradient from north to south, maybe 1-2" for the northern suburbs, as much as 3-6" in the central core of the metro, with some 5-8" amounts not out of the question far southern suburbs, closer to 10" from Redwood Falls to Le Center and Northfield with up to a foot from north of Rochester to near Eau Claire. We'll see, but I want to stress a few variables that will keep amounts down slight: ground temperatures are still mild, after a few days of 40s and 50s. So snow will initially melt on contact during the late afternoon hours. Precipitation will start out as rain, and the strongest vertical velocities with this system may slide just south of MSP. Bottom line: probably plowable Tuesday PM (especially south metro), but hardly Snowmageddon! Map: NOAA and Ham Weather.
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I am happy to report that our first 60 degree highs of 2018 are in the forecast this weekend, which would be the first since around Thanksgiving, nearly 5 months ago! I predict that many will feel feverish today with raging spring fever setting in Monday as we make a run 70 across parts of the state. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
It's been a long, snowy slog, but spring will finally break out in the coming days with 50s giving way to a few 60s by next week. Most of the snow in your yard should be gone by Sunday or Monday (give or take a month). It's a dry pattern; in spite of a slight shower chance next Tuesday many towns in Minnesota should stay rain (and snow) free into most of next week. It's about time.
No question: we've earned our summer this year, more than most years. It was the coldest winter season in 4 years, with the most snow since 2010-2011. La Nina flavored our winter with a cold, wet bias, but I'd still bet a stale bagel next winter won't be as forbidding. Time will tell, but the headline is warmth, reluctant warmth is finally showing signs of paying Minnesota a visit. About time.
I'm as ready as you are to turn the page and celebrate the (very late) arrival of spring. We're almost there. Today's system may brush the metro with a coating of slush - maybe plowable for Rochester and Albert Lea but probably not in the metro area. Next week may restore some measure of faith in a fickle Minnesota spring.
Any moment now we're going to turn the corner. I suspect a "light-switch spring". Like turning on a light switch: slush to 60s in the meteorological blink of an eye. Maybe that's wishful thinking, but with a sun angle as high in the sky as it was in late August - at some point it HAS to warm up. Right? Right?