Midday Update: Big North-South Variation In Tuesday PM Snowfall
November 4, 2013 — 2:01pm
On Edge. Here is the 12z 4km NAM solution, showing potential snow amounts across central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Note the sharp gradient from north to south, maybe 1-2" for the northern suburbs, as much as 3-6" in the central core of the metro, with some 5-8" amounts not out of the question far southern suburbs, closer to 10" from Redwood Falls to Le Center and Northfield with up to a foot from north of Rochester to near Eau Claire. We'll see, but I want to stress a few variables that will keep amounts down slight: ground temperatures are still mild, after a few days of 40s and 50s. So snow will initially melt on contact during the late afternoon hours. Precipitation will start out as rain, and the strongest vertical velocities with this system may slide just south of MSP. Bottom line: probably plowable Tuesday PM (especially south metro), but hardly Snowmageddon! Map: NOAA and Ham Weather.
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Tuesday was colder than average, but the latest in a series of clippers pulls slightly milder air into town today, a mix of very light snow or freezing drizzle possible - and a few roads may ice up. Relatively mild weather spills over into the first half of next week. And then a punch of Canadian air arrives - just in time for Christmas. Still no big storms of any flavor in sight.
Considering the Winter Solstice is now a little more than a week away, I can't say I'm surprised that we may see a true arctic slap around Christmas. Details are hazy, but both NOAA and ECMWF models hint at a precipitous drop in temperature by the end of next week. Until then a few clippers, nuisance amounts of snow, and temperatures trending above average.
A clipper will move through the state Monday, bringing 1-2" of snow with it along with colder air for Tuesday. The cold air won't last long, and we'll see a few more 30s later this week. Meanwhile, today marks seven years since the snowstorm that busted the Metrodome roof. Click for more! - D.J. Kayser
While the south and east digs out we enjoy occasional dribs and drabs of snow. An Alberta Clipper may drop a quick inch Sunday night and early Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will feel like January, but temperatures mellow by late week; ECMWF guidance hinting at 30s and 40s a week from today. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Raging fires in southern California, crippling snows from the southern USA into the east coast. No, I'm not going to complain about a few flurries, a handful of crippled clippers between now and Christmas. It may even warm up a little next week as more of a Pacific breeze kicks in.