Metro Residents: Time To Seek Shelter (large hail, potentially damaging winds next 60-90 minutes)
August 6, 2013 — 7:29pm
Primary Risk: Large Hail - Damaging Winds. NWS Doppler at 7:28 PM. You can see the trailing gust front from this supercell pushing into the metro area. NWS Doppler is estimating 1-2" diameter hail with this cell. Stay alert - no reports of confirmed tornadoes, but this can't be ruled out as this especially severe storm pushes across the metro. Latest from MPX NWS:
702 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HENNEPIN AND
NORTHERN CARVER COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...
AT 659 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF
WACONIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
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Snow is on its way to the state as we head toward Sunday Night into Monday, and parts of southern Minnesota could see over a foot of snow. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect - click through for the details! - D.J. Kayser
It's complicated. Just once I'd like to see all the models agree on timing and amounts. Once. No such luck. NOAA models are pretty adamant about a major dumping by Monday, but ECMWF (European) models are trying to shift the heaviest snow band just south of the Twin Cities. That's about par for the course. We're not a lock on a foot of snow in the immediate metro, not yet. I'm hoping the storm crystallizes over the weekend.
Meteorologists may actually have something to track on their weather maps, after months of synchronized boredom and a parade of lackluster Alberta Clippers. The pattern has shifted, southern moisture will fuel a storm tracking just south of Minnesota early next week, and the result may be a significant pile of snow very close to home.
I know, I know. You've heard the hype before. It starts out with "looks like significant snow!" Within 3-4 days it's "looks like flurries!" I don't blame you for being skeptical. So am I. But the pattern has shifted, we are getting moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico with a storm track south/east of Minnesota, possibly favorable for heavy snow for parts of Minnesota. It could be a pile, very plowable for portions of central Minnesota, maybe the metro - although I still think something will come along to gum up the snowfall potential for MSP. We'll see, but at least there's a chance Sunday night into Monday.
We are transitioning to a somewhat milder, significantly stormier pattern in the days and weeks to come. Instead of being lashed by a parade of clippers whipping up powder and cringe-worthy wind chills, a more southerly flow could mean heavier (wetter) snow, possibly mixed with rain and ice at times. But at least we stand a somewhat better chance of accumulating snow - without subzero temperatures to complain about.