the Earth's rotation around the Sun
Earth's axial tilt (23.5 degrees but it can vary. Review Milankovitch Cycles)
the Sun's position over the equator
Warmer Temps As of Late
Heavy Snow in the Sierra Nevada Range
Another Pacific storm is set to slide into the Western US with widespread heavy snowfall across the high elevations and especially across the Sierra Nevada Range, where locally up to 7 FOOT amounts are possible... Unreal!
1.) Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Southern High Plains, Fri-Sat, Mar 2-Mar 3.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Mon-Tue, Mar 5-Mar 6.
3.) Heavy snow across portions of the Sierra Nevadas, Fri, Mar 2.
4.)Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, Fri-Sat, Mar 2-Mar 3.
5.) Flooding possible across portions of the Southern Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.
6.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
7.) Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.
8.) High winds across portions of the Central and Southern Rockies, the Southern Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and the Southwest, Fri-Sat, Mar 2-Mar 3.
9.) High winds from the Carolinas to New England, Fri-Sat, Mar 2-Mar 3.
10.) Much below normal temperatures across portions of California, the Northern and Central Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest, Sat-Tue, Mar 3-Mar 6.
11.) Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies, Sun-Tue, Mar 4-Mar 6.
12.) Much above normal temperatures across portions of northern mainland Alaska, Fri-Mon, Mar 2-Mar 5.
13.) Slight risk of much below normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to the Central and Northern Great Plains, Wed-Thu, Mar 7-Mar 8.
14.) Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies, Wed-Thu, Mar 7-Mar 8.
15.) Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Fri, Mar 8-Mar 9.
16.) Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sun, Mar 9-Mar 11.
17.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Central Great Basin and California, Thu-Sat, Mar 8-Mar 10.
18.) Severe Drought across the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.
2018 Tornadoes So Far...
According to NOAA's SPC, there have been 58 preliminary tornaoes so far this year (February 27th), which is more than what we had at this time in the last couple of years. Interestingly, there were 366 tornadoes at this time in 2008; that year ended with 2,194 tornadoes, which is nearly 800 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average.
Major River Flooding
Thanks to @DroneKentucky for the pictures below, which shows the progression of the flood waters along the Ohio River over the course of a week! Extreme rainfall over the last 5 to 7 days has led to moderate and major river flooding, which will continue through the weekend in many spots. Interestingly, the Ohio River in Louisville (McAlpine Upper reached a crest of 35.64ft, on Monday afternoon, which is the 10th highest crest this river gauge has ever reached!
Major River Flooding
According to NOAA, there were 221 river gauges in flood stage as of Wednesday morning, 13 of which where at Major flood statge!
WOW! How about those numbers! A corridor of heavy precipitation this month helped push February precipitation numbers into Double digits for a number of locations! In fact, there was so much precipitation that Louisville, KY and Evansville, IN have seen their wettest February on record!!
"Minnesota Sees Deadliest Winter In Years"
Under 4" - STAY OFF
4" - Ice fishing or other activities on foot
5" - 7" - Snowmobile or ATV
8" - 12" - Car or small pickup
12" - 15" - Medium truck
Many factors other than thickness can cause ice to be unsafe.
White ice or "snow ice" is only about half as strong as new clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.
High temps across the country on Thursday will be quite warm for much of the eastern half of the country. In fact, some across the Ohio Valley and the Southeast will be nearly +15F above average. However, folks in the Western half of the country will still be nearly -10F to -15F below average
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation continuing in the Southcentral part of the county, where river flooding is still ongoing. Unfortunately, this addtional heavy rain could leave to more river flood, which could actually worsen! The Northeast will remains active with some 1" to 2"+ liquid tallies into the first part of March. The most significant moisture could be found along the West Coast and into the high elevations of the Sierra Nevada Range, which would be wonderful news since the snowpack there is running below normal for this time of the year.
Snowfall Potential Ahead
By Paul Douglas
THURSDAY: Some sun, cooler. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 37.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, cool and quiet. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 17
FRIDAY: Plenty of sunshine and pleasant. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 40
SATURDAY: Fading sun. Feels like late March. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 26. High: 46.
SUNDAY: Breezy and mild. Rain showers late. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 34. High: 45.
MONDAY: Sloppy mix changes to wet snow. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 39
TUESDAY: Light snow may slush up lawns. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 31.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Probably dry. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 21. High: 33.
This Day in Weather History
1966: The Blizzard of '66 hits Minnesota and lasts 4 days. Aitkin received 23 inches of snow. The snow depth at International Falls reached a record 37 inches by the end of the storm.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 34F (Record: 59F set in 1990)
Average Low: 18F (Record: -32F set in 1962)
Record Rainfall: 1.62" set in 1965
Record Snowfall: 9.0" set in 2007
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 10 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 5 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 2 Hour 24 Minutes
Moon Phase for March 1st at Midnight
0.3 Days After Full "Worm" Moon
"In March, the ground softens, and the earthworm casts reappear, inviting the return of the robins. The Northern tribes knew this as the Full Crow Moon, when the cawing of crows signals the end of winter, or the Full Crust Moon because the snow cover becomes crusted from thawing by day and freezing at night. Fullness occurs at 7:51 p.m. EST(0051 GMT on March 2)."
By the way, did you know that there was NO full moon in Februray? It turn out that it is a little rare! Read more from Space.com HERE: "This occurrence happens once every 19 years. The last time February didn't have a full moon was in 1999, and the time before that was 1980; the next time there will be no full moon in February will be 2037. (Once again, this is true for most locations on Earth, but in some places, including eastern Asia and eastern Australia, the moment of peak fullness will occur on the morning of Feb. 1.) The timing of the full moon is related to the Metonic Cycle, which is named for the Greek astronomer Meton, who discovered this phenomenon around 500 B.C. He noted that a given phase of the moon usually falls on the same date at intervals of 19 years. There doesn't seem to be a name for a month that lacks a full moon, but February is the only month in which this can happen. Recall what we noted above: The lunar ("synodic") cycle is roughly 29.5 days on average, but even during leap years, February cannot have more than 29 days. So if a full moon takes place on the final day of January, the next full moon will jump over February and occur at the beginning of March. And this will result in a second month with two full moons; the second full moon makes up for the lack of a full moon in February."
Temp Outlook For Thursday
Here's the temperature outlook as we head into the 2nd full week of March, which suggests that colder than average temps will continue across much of the High Plains and Upper Midwest, while readings will be a little closer to average as you get into the Great Lakes Region.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
As we head into the 2nd full week of March, colder than average temperatures will still be fairly widespread across much of the nation and especially in the High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic States. However, the Northern New England States and the far Southwest will be above average.
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX