The political class of Minnesota's Eighth Congressional District is abuzz this morning following the KSTP/Survey USA poll showing Republican Stewart Mills 8 points ahead of incumbent Democrat Rep. Rick Nolan just 18 days before the Nov. 4, 2014 election.

I'm not typically a fan of horse race reporting, especially because polling the 8th District accurately is a bit like watch a horse race in a dense cloud of fog. Since this district became competitive for the first time in half a century in 2010, I only recall one poll that turned out to be close to the final result -- the 2012 Star Tribune poll. Sometimes, however, polls can discern trends -- and that's where this poll might have something.

If you're a fan of Mills, you are happy for several reasons, primarily for the complete domination Mills is showing in the cross tabs of this particular KSTP poll. Further, in all the polls taken in the last three election cycles, this is the biggest Republican lead in a MN-8 poll I've ever seen. Like, ever. In my life and the life of my father. Since polling started. Chip Cravaack's 2010 win never showed him leading in the pre-election polls. He lead by a few points in some of his 2012 polls, but ultimately lost that race by 9 points.

Additionally, it's hard to say that the poll is inherently biased because the statewide polls released simultaneously by KSTP show leads by Sen. Al Franken and Gov. Mark Dayton very similar to other recent polls in those races.

That being said, a DCCC poll (yes, an internal poll, but internal polling that's got some credibility) showed Nolan with an 11-point lead just over a week two weeks earlier. The same poll had showed a statistical tie back in the summer.

Either the KSTP poll is an outlier, the DCCC poll is an outlier or they both are. I tend to agree with the principles of poll aggregation. And as such, barring further polls that confirm one or the other, we should probably look at this race as being very close and highly volatile.

That's certainly in keeping with the observable activities of the Mills and Nolan campaigns. Here are a few notes that I believe show a close race:

  • Vast campaign spending, including wall to wall TV commercials and near daily direct mail pieces.
  • The only scheduled debate among all candidates in the race showed Nolan as the feisty, aggressive incumbent and Mills playing it crisp and safe.
  • Republicans up and down the ticket have reinvigorated their pro-mining attacks on the DFL ticket, claiming that DFL incumbents have done too little to advance mining despite their stated, albeit nuanced, support of new mining projects in Northern Minnesota. This had happened months ago but had subsided for other issues. Now it's back in the daily soundbites and the subject of GOP press releases. As I've written before, votes that would actually turn over mining are highly localized. MN-8 is no longer just the "Iron Range" district, and the DFL's base in Duluth is actually motivated by anti-mining sentiments. I did say, however, that mining could be an issue if the election came down to 2,000 votes or less, and that's looking quite possible. It might even be likely.
  • Just as in 2010, the real threat to the DFL is low turnout among its base. That's actually much more dangerous than mining defections in Ely and Hoyt Lakes. One of the classic moves to turn out the base is to bring in a big gun, and that's exactly what's happening next Tuesday when Vice President Joe Biden is coming to Hibbing to stump for Nolan.

Here's what I think we can discern from polling, spending and behavior of candidates put together: the MN-8 race is very close, trending toward Mills, but both parties still believe they can win. Future polls may show an even clearer trend, but the two factors I see as being most important for Nov. 4 are turnout in Duluth (high is good for Nolan, low is good for Mills) and which native son the Brainerd Lakes region, always a swing area, chooses to support this time around. This area was a bellwether for Cravaack in 2010 and Nolan in 2012. I'd be surprised if it failed to predict the winner again in 2014.