There are more empty desks in Dakota County's future.

With an eye on the dire state budget forecast and rising employee health care costs, the county aims to dull the pain of looming cuts by leaving 45 positions vacant through attrition by the end of 2010.

Then, if gloomy budget predictions prove true, the county would cut empty positions instead of people.

"This is not envisioned as a solution, but we're keeping our options open as we go along," said Brandt Richardson, the county administrator.

It's a strategy that has worked in the past.

The county instituted a hiring freeze in 2009, which by year's end resulted in 55 vacant positions that were ultimately eliminated from the 2010 budget. That move saved the county about $4.5 million.

But during discussion at Tuesday's committee meeting, some commissioners questioned how well the county will function if the staff of roughly 1,800 people, in departments including social services, parks, libraries, courts and law enforcement, is reduced further.

"We can talk about it in terms of county-funded positions, but at some point it's programs and services," Commissioner Kathleen Gaylord said.

In addition to the 45 positions that would be held vacant as people leave throughout 2010, another 20 will be filled on a temporary basis. The county at its peak employed about 2,000 people.

The discussion comes as local governments across the state are trying to anticipate fallout from the state's budget troubles and as Dakota County launches talks with its employee unions.

Finance director Matt Smith said the county could lose about $6.6 million in 2010, mostly county program aid, under the current state budget proposal by Gov. Tim Pawlenty. By 2011, the lost state funding could total $8.8 million.

While keeping tabs on budget developments at the state level, commissioners also heard Tuesday that rising health care costs are a cause for concern at the local level.

Based on continuation of current coverage, the estimated county share of employee health benefits, paid for by the county levy, would rise from $15.1 million in 2010 to $25.7 million by 2015.

That trend, coupled with potential future declines in state aid, would put a squeeze on county levy money -- $128.4 million in 2010 -- that is used to fund typical county programs and expenses.

Commissioners won't set the 2011 budget until later this year, but employees already are working on a chart showing the cost of each and every service and program. The chart will also show the number of staff members devoted to each category and rank programs and services based on priorities identified by commissioners and state mandates.

The goal, said Jack Ditmore, director of county operations, is to help commissioners "feel comfortable making the very tough choices."

Smith said the commissioners will tackle the list and "sharpen some priorities" at a workshop in June.

Katie Humphrey • 952-882-9056