The downward enrollment trend in Minneapolis and St. Paul public schools is slowing, offering a temporary reprieve for tight budgets and any as-yet-unplanned school closings.

People in and outside the school districts said they weren't sure why enrollment -- although still lower this year -- was stronger than anticipated. But they noted several contributing factors, including efforts to offer more-attractive educational programs, fewer new charter schools and the tough economy -- which could be making private schools less attractive.

During most years this decade, Minneapolis and St. Paul public schools have opened their doors to about 1,000 fewer students than the year before. They've had to close schools and lay off staff, and almost nothing in the education world galvanizes negative public sentiment as much as talk of school closings.

This past summer, Minneapolis announced plans to close four schools, and St. Paul said it would close two. Both have suffered from an overarching trend of fewer births during the 1990s -- one that recently has reversed -- and of young families moving out of the cities.

But this year in St. Paul, enrollment fell by about 400 students when the district had projected that it would lose nearly 750.

"Clearly, it's a good thing in terms of revenue projections," St. Paul interim schools chief Suzanne Kelly said.

She added that she was uncertain whether the St. Paul schools were drawing students from private schools because of the economy's impact on family budgets.

"I would take that," Kelly said. "But I hope it's because people are giving us a chance."

Schools are required to report their Oct. 1 student enrollment levels to the state. The preliminary numbers usually are modified by other enrollment measurements taken on other days. Enrollment is important to public school districts, because it affects how much state funding they get.

No change to plans

While enrollment was stronger than expected for both districts, it came in different ways. Minneapolis had much higher than expected elementary school enrollment, while the strength in St. Paul's numbers came at the high school level.

Kelly said the numbers won't cause the state's second-largest district to change school closing plans, but they will be part of a larger discussion about how the district deploys resources, including its "open enrollment" plan, which allows students to attend schools all across the district.

Minneapolis, the state's third-largest district, also said that its stronger than expected enrollment wouldn't alter plans to close four schools or narrow the range of school choices to which it will provide transportation.

Enrollment in the Anoka-Hennepin district -- the state's largest -- was dead-on, with forecasts that it would lose about 400 students, and the district said that won't affect previously announced plans to close six schools. There was one big change, though: The number of students qualifying for free or reduced-price lunches in the district climbed from 27 percent last year to 31 percent this year.

More schools could close if voters fail to approve the district's upcoming $8 million referendum next month, said Georgia Kedrowski, Anoka-Hennepin's assistant director of technology and information services.

Charter schools

Minneapolis and St. Paul may be benefitting from a leveling of charter school enrollments, which siphoned off students in years past. Just five new charter schools opened statewide -- only three in Minneapolis and St. Paul -- adding to last year's total of 152 charter schools with 33,000 students.

In 2000, there were fewer than 10,000 charter school students statewide. Current enrollment figures are not available, but many charter schools may have reached their capacities in recent years, according to Eugene Piccolo, executive director of the Minnesota Association of Charter Schools.

Minneapolis officials said the number of students lost to charter schools last year was about 250, down from about 1,000 annually earlier in the decade.

The Minneapolis schools have moved into more direct competition with charter schools by opening an Office of New Schools that is promoting self-governed, charter and contract schools under the aegis of the district.

While enrollment tells how the battle for students is going, the biggest factor is the number of kids being born, and that outlook is positive, says Tom Gillaspy, Minnesota's state demographer.

"Overall, enrollment will drop for the next two to three years before gaining again," Gillaspy said.

Gregory A. Patterson • 612-673-7287