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Adjusting homicides for population surprises
Posted by: Steve Brandt under Public safety, Urban living Updated: May 29, 2012 - 9:58 AM
Everybody knows about Murderapolis, right?
But a statistical case can be made that the big city—or even its North Side—are far from the riskiest places in the metro area.
Minneapolis has notched the most shooting deaths this year at six, including one being prosecuted as manslaughter. But that’s one for every 63,763 people. Even if you narrow the scope to the North Side, the three shooting deaths there amount to one for every 20,000 people.
To find the statistically most dangerous place for getting killed in the metro area, you need to look 25 miles west of Minneapolis. In the far southwest corner of Hennepin County, tiny Bonifacius and its one tragic child death in February has a 2012 homicide rate of one for 2,283 people.
The mile-square city bisected by Hwy. 7 is small enough that it contracts for policing with larger Minnetrista, which surrounds it. The closest it has come to murder in recent years was a triple-fatality house fire in 1986 that police ruled as arson. A man was charged 11 years later, but charges were later dropped.
“Basically, we’re just very, very low crime, probably just a little shoplifting at the holidays,” said city clerk-treasurer Brenda Fisk. Mayor Rick Weible would add occasional rowdiness that spills over from party buses operated by bars. The city used to have three bars, but a fire closed one.
Brooklyn Park has given Minneapolis a run this year for the title of metro homicide capital, with five so far, tying it with St. Paul. But on a population adjusted basis, it’s far ahead of Minneapolis at one per every 15,156 people. St. Paul's rate is one for every 57,000 people.
According to the Center for Homicide Research at the University of Minnesota, other metro communities with homicides so far this year include St. Paul, Mounds View, Brooklyn Center, Richfield and St. Anthony.
For St. Boni, Chief Paul Falls of the neighboring Minnetrista deploys a force of 11 full time officers between the cities. Weible said officers do a good job of steering kids away from troublesome activities toward sports and other extra-curriculars rather than throwing the book at them.
The lone death in St. Bonifacius was “heartbreaking” to Weible, who said the police report on the dead toddler noted multiple fracture in different stages of healing. That’s prompted some discussion. “We’re questioning what kind of services does Hennepin County have out here for a domestic situation,“ he said. A neglect charge has been brought against the mother, and a medical examiner has ruled the death a homicide.
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