Winter may be on the warm side, NOAA says

Well, it is Minnesota after all, but the Climate Prediction Center says it's an El Niño year, and that could mean milder temperatures in the state this winter.

By BILL McAULIFFE, Star Tribune

Last update: October 15, 2009 - 10:12 PM

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If you've had trouble dealing with the abnormally cold October so far, you might like the coming winter better.

This winter in Minnesota could be warmer than normal, according to a long-range outlook released Thursday by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.

The outlook for the months of December, January and February was noncommittal on rain and snow, though, meaning chances are about the same for anything from a brown Christmas to snowmobile bliss.

The forecast is something of an educated guess, but it does enhance the prospect of lower heating bills this winter. High supplies and lower demand -- results of the recession, more aggressive conservation and now a key seasonal weather forecast -- mean that natural gas bills should be 15 percent lower this winter than last, said Becca Virden, spokeswoman for CenterPoint Energy. That means a decline in the average monthly bill from $137 to $110.

The long-range winter outlook, for the months of December, January and February, released Thursday, is based heavily on recent trends in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. That fluctuation, known as El Niño in its warm phase and La Niña in its cool phase, affects weather around the globe.

The strengthening El Niño is expected to be mild, which means weather trends will be "less consistent" than in other El Niños, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, an agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

El Niño usually means milder and drier winters for Minnesota. The last El Niño winter, in 2006-07, featured a December 10 degrees above normal, and a January and a February that offset each other. The Twin Cities had a snowless Christmas, and the season's 35.5 inches of snow was well below the current normal of 56 inches. One-third of that season's snow fell in a single end-of-February storm.

University of Minnesota Extension climatologist Mark Seeley noted that Minnesota has seen some severe winters during strong El Niños. The winter of 1911-12, for example, brought Minnesota its coldest month on record.

The Prediction Center began long-range seasonal forecasting in the mid-'90s, meaning the process is "in its infancy," said Deputy Director Mike Halpert. Its temperature forecasts have been accurate more than half the time, and precipitation forecasts "somewhat less than that. "

Seeley said he's inclined to trust the Prediction Center's outlook. Somewhat.

"If it's between their suggestion and a coin flip, I'll take their suggestion," he said.

Bill McAuliffe • 612-673-7646

WANT TO KNOW MORE? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has extensive background on El Niño at www. elnino.noaa.gov

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