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Red will crest again after big snowstorm

How high the Red River goes is up for debate, but everyone's hoping the worst is over.

By RICHARD MERYHEW, Star Tribune

Last update: March 31, 2009 - 5:51 AM

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FARGO, N.D. - Fueled by a wicked snowstorm that blew into the region on Monday, the swollen but receding Red River is expected to crest for a second time in Fargo-Moorhead by mid-April, the National Weather Service said.

But the height of that crest in the flood-weary Red River Valley is in debate.

While it's likely to be lower than the record 40.82 feet reached Saturday, the Weather Service said that it could range from as low as 37 feet to a high of 41 feet under one scenario.

The cities have built their flood protection to 43 feet.

Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker, a long-time flood fight veteran, said he thinks a crest of 37 or 38 feet is more likely.

The Red dipped below 39 feet in Fargo late Monday afternoon and is expected to drop nearly a foot a day over the next several days as temperatures stay below freezing, slowing the melt.

"In my opinion, we're not going to go back to where we were," Walaker said. "Maybe 38. In the worst-case scenario, maybe 39. But it's going to take a hell of a lot of water from someplace to bring it back up."

Steve Buan, a hydrologist with the Weather Service, said the crest prediction was based on the snow already on the ground, projections for more precipitation, rate of melt and the depth level of the frost.

Its best estimate of a "worst-case" scenario is a crest of 40 or 41 feet, based on up to an additional 2 1/2 inches of precipitation in coming weeks.

"We know it will go back up," Buan said. "But we're not saying it will go to 40 or 41."

At the same time, Buan said, 40 or 41 was just "one possible high-end scenario" and might not be "a cap."

A nasty storm

Although city and county officials in both Fargo and Moorhead expected a second crest, the projections came just as an early spring storm packing high winds and heavy snowfall began pounding the Valley.

As much as 14 inches could fall in Fargo-Moorhead and the southern Valley by the end of the day today, complicating the flood fight and paralyzing a region that has been hit with everything from sunny skies and a sudden warmup to rain, sleet, snow and unseasonably cold weather in the past two weeks.

"Darn weather," Moorhead Mayor Mark Voxland said. "This is ridiculous that we're ending March with a forecast of 14 inches of snow. This just adds to the pain and agony."

Officials fear that heavy snow and powerful winds could clog roads and create blizzard conditions that make it more difficult for emergency workers to get to floodwall trouble spots.

"We've got to get heavy equipment in there, and how do we get that in there if we can't keep our roads clear?" Voxland said.

The mayor also worried that projected wind gusts up to 35 miles per hour will stir up the bloated river, potentially pounding sandbags with icy water and putting more stress on water-logged levees.

As a precautionary measure, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers put plastic along stretches of levees Monday to insulate the sandbags from excessive soaking.

The cities of Moorhead and Dilworth also put out a call for more sandbaggers.

Voxland said officials wanted to fill about 150,000 sandbags in case they are needed in days to come.

The good news is that with a forecast for daytime highs in the 20s and 30s, and nighttime lows in the teens and 20s the rest of this week, the snow isn't expected to melt quickly, giving the Red more time to recede before a melt raises it again.

"All that snow falling in the frozen fields will be locked up for a week at least," said Mike Hudson, a Weather Service meteorologist.

"It's a perfect melt," Walaker said. "The river will continue to drop 1 foot per day, maybe more."

But, he added, "Tell me what the weather is going to do and I'll take you to Vegas with me."

Richard Meryhew • 612-673-4425

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