Intrigue and uncertainty in run-up to '09

When Dateline Minneapolis ran into Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak the day after Barack Obama was elected president, the mayor was as bright-eyed as you'd expect from an Obama supporter.

When asked whether this meant he might be heading to Washington, Rybak said all the politic things.

He's not campaigning for a job. He doesn't expect to be offered something if he's not campaigning for it. He's happy being mayor.

"I said all along I want to be a mayor in Barack Obama's America," said Rybak, who co-chaired the Democrat's campaign in Minnesota and was among his earliest mayoral supporters. "This is a huge difference for my ability to deliver for Minneapolis, and I plan to use it that way."

Only Rybak knows whether he's being coy or really doesn't want to go to D.C. But the prospect is enough to set off political gossip as City Hall nears the 2009 city election season.

A vacancy in the mayor's chair after March 1 would mean the automatic elevation of Council President Barb Johnson; an earlier vacancy triggers a special election that likely would be held under a new voting system.

All this uncertainty comes on top of Rybak's disclosure late last year that he was considering a run for governor. He still needs to decide whether to seek a third term. Some handicappers say that if Rybak wants to be governor, he needs to stay in elected office by seeking a third term. Others suggest that running for reelection as mayor in 2009 and governor in 2010 could test even a peripatetic guy like Rybak, much less his contributor base. In a like circumstance, Norm Coleman managed to win reelection as St. Paul's mayor in 1997, but fell short in his 1998 gubernatorial bid.

At least four council members would consider running for mayor if Rybak goes to D.C. or drops out of political life. None so far has shown any concrete sign of challenging Rybak, although Council Member Ralph Remington talks the most about it.

Some on the council think Rybak is tempting fate by seeking a third term. They remember how voters tired of his predecessor, Sharon Sayles Belton, when Rybak ousted her in 2001. But supporters say that Rybak shows no sign of tiring, still showing up at events all over the city after tending to his office duties.

That hasn't stopped city neighborhood revitalization director Robert Miller from announcing he'll challenge Rybak. Some wonder if he will fare any better against Rybak than the better-known Peter McLaughlin, whom Rybak defeated handily in 2005.

And Minneapolis couldn't have an election without Dick Franson on the ballot. The 76-year-old last week faxed out word of his fifth candidacy for mayor. It's his 24th campaign, counting every elected seat he's run for, with all but his 1963 council campaign unsuccessful.

"Reebok copied a lot of my ideas from '97 and the 2001 race," Franson said, referring to Rybak.

On the City Council, four veteran incumbents need to decide whether to file for a fourth term that would take them to 16 years on the council: Paul Ostrow, Lisa Goodman, Sandra Colvin Roy and Johnson. Colvin Roy is running for sure.

The council member considered the most likely to step down voluntarily is Scott Benson, who is in his second term and said he's a week or so from making up his mind.

Benson said that several of the issues he raised in his initial run -- better budget discipline, broader coverage for airport sound insulation of homes and green initiatives -- have largely been addressed. Plus he's been working on the side for his old law firm for up to 10 hours a week, he said, helping with examining documents, research and writing trial preparation but not doing trial work.

Still, he admits that the ability to intervene when a constituent has a problem -- like the constituent who drove up recently while Benson was out raking leaves -- is one of the job's attractions.

One of the more interesting possibilities, should Rybak quit to go to Washington, is a speed-up in use of the city's new voting system. The city has been planning to roll out ranked-choice voting, in which voters will rank up to three candidates for each city office in order of preference, for next November's election.

But if Rybak quit by March 1, that triggers a special election, and the ranked-choice voting system approved by voters in 2006 is the only method now authorized in the city charter, according to City Attorney Susan Segal.

The council has the power to delay ranked-choice voting until 2013 if it feels the city isn't ready for it, but there's majority support for the new system on the council. Plus, there's a timing problem. The council is required to vote on any such delay at least four months ahead of an election, but the charter requires a special election within 75 days of the vacancy.

Another level of uncertainty arises from the pending legal challenge filed by opponents of ranked-choice voting. If a judge granted their request to block ranked-choice voting, the city would have to revert to general state election law for lack of an alternative in its charter, Segal said.

All this means that the only thing certain for the city's 2009 elections is uncertainty.

Steve Brandt • 612-673-4438