Today, Iowa is the center of the political universe, but for only a day. Right here in Minnesota is where the next president will be chosen.

I know the conventional wisdom: Candidates who hope to capture their party's nomination must make an early splash in Iowa or New Hampshire, or at least in Florida's primary on Jan. 29. As a result, it's thought, the GOP convention in the Twin Cities later this year will merely anoint a nominee chosen months earlier, in the sort of anticlimactic, scripted coronation we've seen for decades.

This year, I predict, things will be different.

Here's why: Today, the five major Republican candidates are in a virtual dead heat after slugging it out for a year. With no incumbent president or vice president in the race for the first time in 80 years, according to political experts, the meaning of conservatism is up for grabs.

The Republican candidates hold widely different visions in this regard. On national security and the war in Iraq, John McCain has been one of President Bush's strongest supporters, while Mike Huckabee is so tentative that some have likened him to Jimmy Carter. On social issues, Rudy Giuliani supports abortion rights and gun control, while Huckabee is an ardent abortion opponent and NRA supporter. Fred Thompson, on the other hand, has said that Roe vs. Wade should be overturned, but that states should be allowed to decide whether to permit abortions. Some candidates are skeptical on immigration, while others seem to see it as a key to national rejuvenation.

With ideological differences like these separating the candidates, their supporters won't quickly or easily shift their preferences as the primary season unfolds.

The result? High drama could ensue at the GOP convention in St. Paul, with the sort of last minute dealmaking not seen for decades. We won't know who will be left standing until the lights go out.

But Minnesota's importance goes beyond choosing who will head the GOP ticket. If the meaning of conservatism itself is an open question, Minnesota has the answer: His name is Tim Pawlenty.

Pawlenty will be a major attraction under the lights at the convention. He earned national attention during the aftermath of the Interstate 35W bridge collapse, a crisis he negotiated with confidence and grace, and he has sparked interest and praise while stumping for McCain. He's articulate and telegenic.

How high will Pawlenty rise? Whether or not he is a vice-presidential candidate, all vectors point to our young governor as a defining face for conservatism over the next decade.

What will that face look like? Pawlenty has championed smaller, accountable government, and forged a sterling reputation as a tax-cutting conservative who brought a Democratic-controlled Legislature to heel. But he has also defied conservative principles, pushing alternative energies despite some economic and environmental drawbacks and railing against big drug companies. You might sum him up as a populist conservative.

How will Pawlenty's vision of conservatism come into focus at the national level? We'll know in September.

One final factor promises to rivet the nation on Minnesota and help shape the political landscape: the chaos that will likely engulf the Twin Cities during the convention. Anarchists are planning unprecedented disruption, and some have vowed a shutdown so significant that it will "deter other cities from wanting to host political conventions in the future."

At the 2004 Republican convention, a seasoned New York City police force barely averted anarchy with an overwhelming display of force. We may not be prepared for the mayhem that threatens us.

The nation -- Republicans, Democrats and independents alike -- will likely respond to this sorry spectacle with disgust. On Election Day, the backlash could spill over in a way that favors those who stood against the storm.

One final prediction: The candidate chosen here in September will be the next president. Today, Democratic voters may flirt with the youthful Barack Obama and the populist John Edwards. But Hillary Clinton's well-oiled machine will likely triumph in the end, assuring the nomination of the most polarizing candidate in a generation. In a mid-December USA Today/Gallup Poll, 48 percent of adults questioned said they have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. One wonders if a substantial percentage would rather vote for Homer Simpson.

Come to Minnesota in September, America, and you'll see what the political future holds for this country.

Katherine Kersten • kkersten@startribune.com Join the conversation at my blog, Think Again, which can be found at www.startribune.com/thinkagain.