Minnesota Poll: Three-way tie for governor

It can't get much closer in the contest for the governor's office.

A little more than two weeks before election day, Minnesota's three leading candidates are separated by a mere 2 percentage points, with 11 percent undecided, the latest Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows.

In a survey of 1,048 likely voters conducted Oct. 11-16, DFLer Roger Moe and Republican Tim Pawlenty each were the choice of 29 percent, and the Independence Party's Tim Penny was the choice of 27 percent. Ken Pentel of the Green Party lagged behind with 3 percent.

Campaign spokespeople for the top three claimed that victory is in sight, and they promised furious and nonstop campaigning to the finish.

"To have the money disadvantage we have and still be where we are is great news," said Penny campaign manager Jack Uldrich. "We are absolutely convinced that the undecideds will break our way. . . . It's going to be a photo finish, and we're confident our nose will be across the line first."

An almost audible sigh of relief came from the Pawlenty campaign. The poll was conducted at the height of a controversy over TV ads run by the Republican Party. The state campaign finance board ruled last week just before the poll was taken that the operatives for the party and the Pawlenty campaign improperly colluded in producing the spots.

Pawlenty accepted responsibility for the deal and negotiated a penalty that cost his campaign about $600,000 in combined fines and spending restrictions. His supporters said they hoped Pawlenty's quick and forthright handling of the situation would minimize political damage and even win him new admirers.

The poll bears out those hopes, his campaign asserted. Pawlenty's "leadership message, holding himself accountable and government accountable for results, is resonating with voters," spokesman Peter Hong said. "We will continue taking the message to voters that Tim Pawlenty is a tough, principled leader."

The Moe campaign, which some have described as sputtering and lackluster in its early stages, also described the results as encouraging and said the campaign is hitting its stride at the right time.

"This is an excited, energized campaign right now," said Bill Harper, Moe's campaign manager. "We'll be going nonstop, full-speed." Noting that Democratic U.S. Sen. Paul Wellstone appears to be running about 15 percentage points ahead of Moe (the Senate contest is essentially a two-way race), Harper said the campaign would "work very hard to close the 'Wellstone-not-yet-Moe' gap" to win over those who are voting for Wellstone but apparently not Moe.

Meanwhile, Pentel said the poll results "do not change our course. We'll continue to work hard; you never know what might happen."

The closeness of the three-way race has been apparent since it got started in mid-June. Each of the three has been ahead or tied for the lead at least once in polls conducted by five organizations over the past four months. In three Minnesota Polls so far, the candidates have never been separated by more than 5 percentage points.

The Ventura factor

One of the central questions in the campaign has been where Gov. Jesse Ventura's supporters will go, whether they will return to the traditional parties or stay loyal to his centrist message and back Penny, a former Democratic congressman who has Ventura's endorsement.

The polls indicate that Penny does inherit the bulk of that support, but less than half of it. Of those who said they voted for Ventura in 1998, 43 percent back Penny but 45 percent support Moe or Pawlenty.

The poll shows that Penny is not faring well in the northern Twin Cities suburbs, which were Ventura's strongest areas. Uldrich said Penny is trying to shore up support there and recently was endorsed by several prominent Anoka County leaders.

But Penny apparently is taking big slices of presumably moderate DFL and Republican voters from Moe and Pawlenty. Only three-fifths of DFLers say they support Moe and two-thirds of Republicans say they back Pawlenty, which is well under the typical support for DFL or GOP candidates in a two-way race.

The poll also found that the percentage of independent likely voters has begun to grow, which could bode ill for Moe and Pawlenty.

Regional divides

The poll revealed other regional strengths and weaknesses.

Moe, with DFL concentrations in the urban core, and Pawlenty, a south suburban legislator, fare considerably better than Penny in the Twin Cities area overall. Penny, whose base is in southern Minnesota, scores better than the other two outside the metro area.

Moe did well in Hennepin County. Minneapolis, which is in the county, is the home of his running mate, state Sen. Julie Sabo, and a perennial DFL power base.

Moe also was strong in northeastern Minnesota, which contains the traditional DFL strongholds of Duluth and the Iron Range. However, his 41 percent support in northeastern Minnesota is far below that of typical DFLers, and Penny showed strength at 28 percent there.

Pawlenty was the clear favorite in the southern suburbs, dominated by Dakota County, and in the northern suburbs, where Anoka County is the most populous.

He had the support of about 2 in 5 likely voters in those areas, while Moe and Penny each had about a quarter. In the eastern metro areas of Ramsey and Washington County, despite a strong DFL base in St. Paul, Pawlenty was even with Moe at about 30 percent, about 10 percentage points ahead of Penny.

Penny is furthest ahead in the outstate cities that serve as regional centers, including Mankato and Rochester in southern Minnesota. Penny, who represented southern Minnesota for more than a decade in Congress, got 45 percent support in outstate cities. In small rural towns and rural areas, however, Pawlenty and Penny were even, at 30 percent apiece.

One rural respondent who said he likes both is Don Bailey, a 74-year-old farmer from northwestern Stearns County in central Minnesota. He said he voted for Ventura and likes Penny, but didn't like that Penny "switched his abortion stance simply for political reasons." Penny, who voted against abortion rights in Congress, now says he would support no changes in current law.

Bailey said he is leaning toward Pawlenty because "he's experienced and otherwise a credible candidate."

In southern town of Rushford, Lou Jean Hoff, a 70-year-old retired bookkeeper, is supporting Penny. She said she and her neighbors have always thought of him as hard-working and upstanding, and she likes that his campaign has accentuated the positive. "I get tired of them running down each other," she said.

Belonging to no one

While some differentiation between the candidates can be detected along demographic lines, no candidate can lay claim to total ownership of a type of voter.

Moe, whose TV ads feature his parents and make the point that one of them is in a nursing home, was the favorite among those age 65 or older -- 43 percent to about 25 percent for Penny and Pawlenty.

One respondent who typified Moe's appeal to the elderly was 90-year-old Viola Maki of Virginia, on the Iron Range. She said she usually votes for DFLers and will vote for Moe because "his dad is in a nursing home. He knows all the angles, he knows what we're going through."

Pawlenty, who is the youngest of the three at 41 (Penny is 52; Moe is 58), did best among those ages 35 to 44.

The only demographic group in which Pentel, 41, got more than 10 percent was among those ages 18 to 24.

While DFLers typically fare better among women, the so-called gender gap is not dramatic and apparently not a factor for Pawlenty. Women favored Moe by a few percentage points, Penny was stronger among men and Pawlenty did equally well among both.

Moe was out front of the others among those with incomes below $30,000. Pawlenty, the only candidate promising not to raise taxes to balance the state's budget shortfall, was strongest among respondents making more than that and Penny support was relatively even across income groups.

-- Dane Smith is at

rdsmith@startribune.com">>rdsmith@startribune.com.