On the eve of President Bush's bus tour across Minnesota, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows him potentially gaining ground on challenger John Kerry in what has long been a reliably Democratic state in presidential elections.

The poll, conducted Sept. 7-13, found that Kerry has the support of 50 percent of likely voters in Minnesota, while Bush has the support of 41 percent.

The president's support has increased by 3 percentage points from the level he had in March, the last time the Minnesota Poll measured support for the candidates, while Kerry's support remained unchanged.

Kerry's lead over Bush is wider than in other recent statewide polls, which have ranged from a tie to a 7-percentage point lead.

But the narrowing of the race in Minnesota is consistent with polls in several battleground states conducted since the end of the Republican convention, which have shown that Bush has opened up a substantial lead in some, while inching up in states where Kerry has long been comfortably ahead.

"This suggests that Kerry has gotten his feet back under him," said Larry Jacobs, who directs the 2004 Elections Project at the University of Minnesota's Center for the Study of Politics.

"It's a little higher than I've seen in some other polls, but it doesn't strike me as outrageous," Jacobs said.

For the first time in decades, Minnesota is in play in the presidential election, with both parties targeting the state, sending in unending waves of candidates and their surrogates. For example, Bush's scheduled visit Thursday will be his fifth to the state this year; Kerry has made six Minnesota stops.

Ron Eibensteiner, chairman of the state Republican Party, called the poll results "laughable. Not only is Minnesota still in play, it will remain in play until Election Day."

Poll under fire

Last week, Eibensteiner called on the newspaper to fire its longtime poll director, saying the poll consistently favors Democratic candidates. The latest poll results are "what I expected and why I had my press conference last Friday," he said. "A flawed methodology means that the results will be flawed. I'm not surprised in the least."

He said the party's own polls have shown a dead heat in Minnesota. "We're either up by one or down by one and it's been that way since the convention," he said.

Said Star Tribune Editor Anders Gyllenhaal: "There's a long and unfortunate history of political parties attacking the newspaper when they don't like the news. This poll is based on exhaustive research that reaches the highest standards. To suggest the Star Tribune is aiming for anything but accuracy and precision with its polling is ridiculous."

Eibensteiner's counterpart, DFL Chairman Mike Erlandson, embraced the poll results. "Obviously, the numbers are encouraging," he said. "You always like to see polls showing you ahead. But certainly, we're going to operate as if we're 10 points down right until" the election. He said the DFL has not conducted any polls since the Republican Convention, which shook up polls nationwide.

The new poll also shows that one in 12 likely voters remains undecided. That 8 percent, along with another 11 percent who say they could change their minds between now and Nov. 2, are considered "persuadables." They are all over the map demographically and are likely to be targeted by both campaigns.

"I've got to do some soul-searching," said Rebecca Banat, a Northwest Airlines employee from Lakeville. "I've flip-flopped in a way. I'm going to have to look at them both again."

She has qualms about the war in Iraq and doesn't see a significant difference between Bush and Kerry on the issue. While she agrees with Kerry on some social issues, she sides more with Republicans on the issue of abortion -- but that in itself isn't a deciding issue. "I'm cross-cut on a bunch of issues," she said. "It's frustrating."

Strong supporters of Kerry and Bush who took part in the poll mince no words about their decision in November.