Minnesota Poll: Bush inches up on Kerry

On the eve of President Bush's bus tour across Minnesota, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows him potentially gaining ground on challenger John Kerry in what has long been a reliably Democratic state in presidential elections.

The poll, conducted Sept. 7-13, found that Kerry has the support of 50 percent of likely voters in Minnesota, while Bush has the support of 41 percent.

The president's support has increased by 3 percentage points from the level he had in March, the last time the Minnesota Poll measured support for the candidates, while Kerry's support remained unchanged.

Kerry's lead over Bush is wider than in other recent statewide polls, which have ranged from a tie to a 7-percentage point lead.

But the narrowing of the race in Minnesota is consistent with polls in several battleground states conducted since the end of the Republican convention, which have shown that Bush has opened up a substantial lead in some, while inching up in states where Kerry has long been comfortably ahead.

"This suggests that Kerry has gotten his feet back under him," said Larry Jacobs, who directs the 2004 Elections Project at the University of Minnesota's Center for the Study of Politics.

"It's a little higher than I've seen in some other polls, but it doesn't strike me as outrageous," Jacobs said.

For the first time in decades, Minnesota is in play in the presidential election, with both parties targeting the state, sending in unending waves of candidates and their surrogates. For example, Bush's scheduled visit Thursday will be his fifth to the state this year; Kerry has made six Minnesota stops.

Ron Eibensteiner, chairman of the state Republican Party, called the poll results "laughable. Not only is Minnesota still in play, it will remain in play until Election Day."

Poll under fire

Last week, Eibensteiner called on the newspaper to fire its longtime poll director, saying the poll consistently favors Democratic candidates. The latest poll results are "what I expected and why I had my press conference last Friday," he said. "A flawed methodology means that the results will be flawed. I'm not surprised in the least."

He said the party's own polls have shown a dead heat in Minnesota. "We're either up by one or down by one and it's been that way since the convention," he said.

Said Star Tribune Editor Anders Gyllenhaal: "There's a long and unfortunate history of political parties attacking the newspaper when they don't like the news. This poll is based on exhaustive research that reaches the highest standards. To suggest the Star Tribune is aiming for anything but accuracy and precision with its polling is ridiculous."

Eibensteiner's counterpart, DFL Chairman Mike Erlandson, embraced the poll results. "Obviously, the numbers are encouraging," he said. "You always like to see polls showing you ahead. But certainly, we're going to operate as if we're 10 points down right until" the election. He said the DFL has not conducted any polls since the Republican Convention, which shook up polls nationwide.

The new poll also shows that one in 12 likely voters remains undecided. That 8 percent, along with another 11 percent who say they could change their minds between now and Nov. 2, are considered "persuadables." They are all over the map demographically and are likely to be targeted by both campaigns.

"I've got to do some soul-searching," said Rebecca Banat, a Northwest Airlines employee from Lakeville. "I've flip-flopped in a way. I'm going to have to look at them both again."

She has qualms about the war in Iraq and doesn't see a significant difference between Bush and Kerry on the issue. While she agrees with Kerry on some social issues, she sides more with Republicans on the issue of abortion -- but that in itself isn't a deciding issue. "I'm cross-cut on a bunch of issues," she said. "It's frustrating."

Strong supporters of Kerry and Bush who took part in the poll mince no words about their decision in November.

"I'm a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat and I happen to think George Bush is a liar," said Ruth Anderson, who operates a home day-care center in Deerwood. "If we keep down this same track for four more years, our grandchildren will be the ones who will suffer."

Said Bush supporter David Nelson, a retired dairyman from Plymouth: "Geez, there's no question. The guy's got character, he's decisive, he's honest. That's leadership. Kerry's the saddest thing I've ever seen in a candidate. When he lays out his program, there's no sense to it."

The poll isn't particularly good news for supporters of independent candidate Ralph Nader, who captured more than 5 percent of the Minnesota vote four years ago.

Collectively, Nader and five other minor party candidates on the Minnesota ballot get just 1 percent of the support among likely voters.

"The president feels pretty good about Minnesota, with the Republicans rising and the fact that he came within two points [of winning the state] last time," Jacobs said. "But with the 5 percent Nader got, Bush has 7 percent to make up this time. That shows Bush is still struggling in this state."

Even so, Minnesota "could still be in play," Jacobs said. "There are the debates, the real-world events that could happen, and if Ralph Nader surges, Kerry could be in trouble."

Job performance

The poll shows likely voters are polarized and split when they assess the job Bush is doing.

Forty-six percent approve of his overall job performance; 47 percent say they disapprove. Generally, when an incumbent's job approval rating is less than 50 percent he or she is considered to be vulnerable.

Poll respondents were even harsher in their assessment of Bush's handling of the economy and the war in Iraq: More than half disapprove of his handling of both.

Another indicator that could bode ill for Bush in Minnesota is the perception among likely voters that the nation is going in the wrong direction. Fifty-four percent say the nation is pretty seriously off on the wrong track while 37 percent say it's headed in the right direction.

By comparison, in 2000, most likely voters said they thought the nation was headed in the right direction.

The belief that the nation is on the wrong track appears to be rooted in Minnesotans' personal financial situation. Among those who say the nation isn't moving in the right direction, 42 percent say their economic situation is worse than it was four years ago.

And Ronald Reagan's mantra -- "are you better off than you were four years ago?" -- appears as though it could hurt Bush. Four years ago, an exit poll found most Minnesota voters felt they were better off than they were in 1996. Now, only 28 percent say they feel better off than they were in 2000.

The issue of the military records of Bush and Kerry isn't resonating deeply for voters, despite all the ink and airtime that have been devoted to it in recent weeks. Seven in 10 said the candidates' military records won't have any effect on their ultimate vote.

Yet, the issue appears to be hurting Bush slightly more than it is Kerry. Nineteen percent of likely voters say what they know about Bush's National Guard service makes them less likely to vote for him, while 12 percent say what they know about Kerry's Navy service in Vietnam makes them less likely to vote for him.

Base of support

Specific issues aside, both candidates have managed to shore up their respective bases.

Eighty-seven percent of Bush's supporters say they're not budging, while 88 percent of Kerry's backers say the same about him. Similarly, 95 percent of Republicans support Bush, as do 78 percent of self-described conservatives; 94 percent of Democrats back Kerry, along with 85 percent of liberals.

Representatives of both campaigns reacted to the poll results much as their party chairs did.

"The Minnesota Poll has a long and consistent record of being accuracy-challenged," said Bush campaign spokesman Peter Hong. "There they go again."

Said Kerry spokeswoman Stacie Paxton, "polls will go up and down through Election Day, but Minnesotans know George Bush and Dick Cheney have taken us in the wrong direction." Kerry holds the lead among military veterans, Catholics, residents of the Twin Cities metro area and Minnesotans with yearly incomes of less than $30,000. Bush is leading among Protestants, evangelical and born-again Christians and those with incomes of $75,000 or more.

The race is a tossup among married couples and outstate residents. In a striking disappearance of the gender gap that has prevailed for several elections, men and women support both candidates in equal proportions.

One striking difference between the candidates stems from the active religiosity of poll respondents. Among those who frequently worship, Bush leads 52 to 39 percent; among those who rarely worship, Kerry leads 64 to 25 percent.

Bob von Sternberg is at vonste@startribune.com