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Governor's race narrows as Ventura surges

By Robert Whereatt, Star Tribune

Last update: October 19, 1998 - 11:00 PM

The three-way contest to be Minnesota's next governor, once considered a yawner, suddenly has become a squeaker, according to the latest Star Tribune/KMSP-TV Minnesota Poll.

Support for DFL nominee Hubert Humphrey III has eroded sharply, while Reform Party candidate Jesse Ventura's support has doubled, resulting in a dead heat between Humphrey, the Minnesota attorney general, and Republican nominee Norm Coleman, the mayor of St. Paul.

Humphrey's support among likely voters dropped 14 points -- to 35 percent -- since the previous Minnesota Poll immediately following the September primary election.

Support for Coleman increased by five percentage points to 34 percent.

The primary beneficiary of Humphrey's decline is Ventura, the former Brooklyn Park mayor and pro wrestler, whose theatrical flair and plain talk have made him the crowd favorite at debates.

Ventura, who hasn't yet aired a single TV commercial, is supported by 21 percent of likely voters, according to the poll. That's up from 10 percent in September.

Why the big shift? For one thing, the number of Minnesotans who identify themselves as Democrats has slid since the last poll, taken immediately after the much-publicized DFL primary election. Currently, 45 percent say they are Democrats or leaning Democrat, compared with 53 percent in the September poll.

But much of the shift has to do with Ventura.

His name recognition has risen since the last poll, as well as his favorable rating, reaching the level of the other two candidates for the first time.

Many voters who identify themselves as "independents" also slipped out of Humphrey's camp. In September, 33 percent of independents supported Humphrey. This time, 13 percent did.

At the same time, among independents, Ventura's stock went up 29 percentage points. Ventura's support also went up in nearly every demographic category that the poll measured. It increased by 15 percentage points among men and 30 points among likely voters between 35 and 54 years old.

He also is capturing more of those who say the state is on the wrong track; his support among that group (two-fifths of all poll respondents) grew by 15 percentage points to 28 percent.

Ventura said the jump in his level of support is evidence that the underdog can end up as top dog. "I had a feeling this would happen once the debates started because of the fact that my message is getting out there," he said.

Most of Ventura's increased support apparently came at Humphrey's expense. "All I've been hearing is that Jesse takes Republican votes. We take equally from both [parties]," he said.

Coincidentally, it was the Humphrey camp that insisted Ventura be included in all debates. As a result, Ventura has received coverage at four televised debates, with at least three more scheduled.

Coleman and his aides were buoyed by the first news media poll since the Sept. 15 primary to show him in a competitive race. "The Humphrey message of promises and spending and taxing is getting out, and people don't like it," Coleman said. "I have to continue to communicate that I am the candidate for cutting taxes, more jobs and opportunity."

Coleman said his own polling showed he was narrowing the gap with Humphrey, but the Minnesota Poll would "raise spirits and energize volunteers in the last two weeks of the campaign." The election is Nov. 3.

Poll questioned

Eric Johnson, a top campaign adviser for Humphrey, questioned the accuracy of the poll. "You guys are all over the place," he said, noting that the Minnesota Poll published Sept. 23 had Humphrey leading by 20 points. "The only ones we believe are our own. Our own polls have been between 7 and 10 [points], Humphrey leading. We have never been behind."

But Johnson said the Minnesota Poll "will serve as a wake-up call to Democrats and all voters who care about public schools and tax cuts for working families."

Rob Daves, director of the Minnesota Poll, said there were no methodological differences between this poll -- a survey of 806 likely voters conducted Oct. 15-18 -- and previous Minnesota Polls.

Outsider's view

Prof. Chris Gilbert, chairman of the Political Science Department at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter, Minn., suggested Humphrey's slide may be a result of not distinguishing himself. "My perception of the debates is that Humphrey has not come across as the leader in the race," he said. "The campaign doesn't stand out as a brilliant campaign."

Ventura is the surprise, Gilbert said, calling his percentage "a remarkable figure for a third-party candidate at any point in the campaign."

Ventura's significant percentage may hold the key to a victory by either Humphrey or Coleman.

The poll findings suggested that Ventura's supporters aren't as solid in their choice as Humphrey and Coleman supporters are in theirs. Only 62 percent of Ventura voters said they will definitely vote for him; 73 percent of Humphrey's supporters and 78 percent of Coleman's backers said they will stick with their men.

That's an indication that Humphrey or Coleman might be able woo mushy Ventura voters.

Poll respondent Jan Norstad, a retired insurance account executive from Burnsville, said that if she is convinced Humphrey will win, she will vote for Ventura, partly because Ventura has impressed her and partly as a protest. "I don't think there is a chance in hell that Jesse Ventura is going to win," said Norstad, 69. "I do want to show that he has support. . . . If it was close, I would vote for Humphrey."

On the other hand, the poll could have the effect of persuading Ventura supporters to stick with him because of the possibility that he could win the three-way race.

Poll respondent Robert Peterson, a retired railroad worker from Hermantown, near Duluth, said he is a Democrat but will vote for Republican nominee Coleman.

"I think he has pretty good Christian principles," said Peterson, 67. Coleman's abortion views are similar to his own, he said. Both Humphrey and Ventura support abortion rights. Coleman opposes abortion except in cases of rape and incest or to save the mother's life.

Peterson also favors Coleman on gun control, a major issue in northern Minnesota. "Sounds like Humphrey wants to take away the guns, but Coleman doesn't," he said.

Coleman favors making it easier for nonfelons to get permits to carry handguns. Humphrey favors current law, which leaves it to the sheriff or police chief to decide whether there is sufficient reason to issue a permit.

-- Staff Writer Dane Smith contributed to this report.

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