The first snow sparks irrational fear. It's the cold storms, snow falling at temperatures lower than 15 degrees, that make me nervous — when chemicals can't effectively melt the snow and ice.

According to Sperling's Best Places, which analyzed natural disaster data, the Twin Cities is the seventh-safest large metro area in the U.S. Only Salt Lake City and Portland are safer. We see a tornado from time to time, but nothing like the South, where tornadoes, hurricanes and floods mean the highest-risk cities are Oklahoma City and Austin to Miami. Feeling better? It was worth a shot.

The atmosphere should be just warm enough aloft for rain showers today. Flurries race past your window Monday, with a harsh breeze and 30s. Winds ease up a bit on Halloween with some sun, but it will be chilly.

ECMWF (European) guidance shows the jet stream buckling, pumping mild air north by early next week. Before we're knee-deep in snow we will see more 50s, which will feel very good.