Staci Lee Smith has spent four months and $1,300 planning her spring break in Cancun. Still, a recent U.S. State Department travel alert had her thinking twice.
After reading about the violence plaguing parts of Mexico, the University of Minnesota sophomore concluded "it's really bad there and you shouldn't go." But she and her 18 friends plan to go, anyway.
"I read that the main problems are alcohol and the club scene -- which pretty much sums up my spring break," she said. "At the same time, the likelihood that it would happen to me is so low."
The group plans to be careful, stay in well-traveled areas and "use the buddy system," she said. "But I'm worried. How bad is it? Can I go and be safe?"
Thousands of Minnesotans who help make Mexico one of the most popular late-winter destinations are asking the same questions. On Feb. 20, the State Department issued a travel alert, warning that while millions of Americans travel to Mexico without incident, "violence in the country has increased recently" and has moved beyond the U.S. border region to other parts of the country.
The alert prompted Winona State University to send a warning to its students, and the College of St. Scholastica in Duluth moved one of its "alternative spring break" trips from one side of the border to the other.
More than 100,000 American teens and young adults go to Mexico for spring break each year, according to the State Department.
Although bystanders have been injured or killed in violent attacks in cities and dozens of U.S. citizens have been kidnapped, according to the alert, many Minnesotans are still strolling the sands south of the border, trouble-free.
'I didn't feel a sense of danger'
Kit Wilson had been snorkeling and sunbathing for three days in Akumal, on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, when the State Department issued its alert. She hadn't heard about it but had gotten her own kind of warning when she and four friends traveled the coast from Cancun to the beach house they had rented: Police were funneling cars off the freeway for searches. When the group from Minneapolis arrived at the rental house, the caretakers told them to lock the doors and that a guard would be on duty each night.
"I assumed the guards were to ward off robbers," said Wilson, who has been to Mexico five times in the past 12 years. This year, she went for a run every morning from the beach house, which was surrounded by resorts, and spent several evenings in Akumal, where she spied more than one "Twins" T-shirt.
"I didn't feel a sense of danger in any way," she said.
The State Department issues alerts "to disseminate information about short-term conditions ... that pose imminent risks to the security of U.S. citizens." Its more serious travel warnings describe conditions that make a country dangerous or unstable.
"The greatest increase in violence has occurred near the U.S. border," the alert continues. "However, U.S. citizens traveling throughout Mexico should exercise caution in unfamiliar areas and be aware of their surroundings at all times."
Advice from colleges
Several colleges are deciding how to advise students planning trips to Mexico. Winona State students received an e-mail Thursday informing them of the travel alert and urging them to be safe.
"Not all students are necessarily aware of these kinds of things," said Connie Gores, vice president of student life and development, who sent the note. "If it helps even one person become aware of the situation and think a little differently about their time there, it's worth it."
Other schools are considering similar steps. Hamline University could put out an e-mail this week, said spokeswoman Jacqueline Getty. The school wouldn't normally send an all-student notice about a travel alert, but "this is new to Mexico," she said, "and it's such a popular destination."
The University of Minnesota's Boynton Health Service hands out "safe spring break kits" that will include the warning about Mexico, but the school doesn't plan to send out an all-student warning.
Seven College of St. Scholastica students will spend next week learning about immigration issues in El Paso, Texas, instead of Juarez, Mexico, said spokesman Bob Ashenmacher. The school has not canceled a fall, semester-long program because its location -- south of Mexico City -- is less dangerous, he said.
To go, or not to go?
Travel agent Michele Keeley of Travel Leaders in Eden Prairie has gotten a handful of calls from people worried about taking their Mexican vacations. So far, after reading the State Department alert, as Keeley encourages them to do, none has switched to a new location.
"You should be concerned with any kind of travel warning, and be aware of what that means to you, but if you're not hanging out in a border town, not buying drugs, not picking up prostitutes, I think you're going to be OK," Keeley said.
"There is drug violence in downtown Minneapolis," she added. "I still go there; I'm just careful."

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