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Swine flu has sickened about 22 million Americans since April and killed nearly 4,000, including 540 children, according to federal estimates released Thursday.
The figures -- a quadrupling of previous death estimates -- don't mean swine flu suddenly has worsened, and most cases still don't require a doctor's care. Instead, the numbers are a long-awaited better attempt to quantify the new flu's true toll.
"I am expecting all of these numbers, unfortunately, to continue to rise," said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "We have a long flu season ahead of us."
The CDC had estimated more than 1,000 deaths and "many millions" of new H1N1 infections. Thursday's report attempts to calculate the first six months of the strain's spread from April through mid-October. It said:
• About 98,000 people were hospitalized, including 36,000 children, 53,000 adults younger than 65 and 9,000 older adults.
• Deaths could range from 2,500 to 6,100.
• About 8 million children have become ill, 12 million adults younger than 65 and 2 million older adults.
And tight supplies of vaccine to combat the illness continue: Not quite 42 million doses are currently available, a few million less than CDC had predicted last week.
Alarmed by deaths that health authorities believe could have been prevented with rapid treatment, the World Health Organization said it was revising its guidelines and urging more people to take antiviral medication even before they are sure they have the flu.
The new guidelines say that anyone with flu-like symptoms for three days, along with people in several high-risk groups -- pregnant women, children younger than 2 and people with underlying respiratory problems -- should not wait for laboratory tests to confirm the diagnosis but should be treated right away with drugs like Tamiflu.
"The pandemic virus can cause severe pneumonia even in healthy young people, and the virus can take life within a week," said Dr. Nikki Shindo. "The window of opportunity is very narrow to reverse the progression of the disease. The medicine needs to be administered before the virus destroys the lungs."
She said the guidelines, similar to those in use in the United States, had not been adopted sooner because the agency was focusing on treating people with severe cases of the virus.
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