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Communities across the Twin Cities area are ready for a full-blown emergency, or anything short of it.
Linger near the front desk at St. Louis Park's City Hall and you'll see the receptionist swab the counter with cleaner to kill any flu viruses left by the dozens of people who stop by each day.
But the precautions cities are taking now against H1N1 are nothing compared to what they'll do if a full-blown health emergency is declared.
Some city offices could be almost deserted, with people working from home on computers. Meetings would be discouraged, and workers at desks within eyesight of one another still might be encouraged to communicate by phone or e-mail.
If people had to meet, the meeting room door would be propped open so no one has to touch it. And there would be rules: Stand at least 3 feet apart. Don't shake hands. Wash your hands when you leave.
Afterward, someone would disinfect tables and other surfaces that might have been touched.
Those are some of the scenarios included in pandemic flu emergency and preparedness plans being developed in communities around the Twin Cities. Some are updating plans that were written in 2006 and 2007, when avian flu was a worry. Others are adapting emergency plans that were designed to cope with a tornado or flood.
"What are you planning for? That's the hard part," said Mark Windschitl, assistant fire chief in St. Louis Park. "We're planning for something we've never faced."
No one knows what turn the H1N1 flu could take. Emergency planners point to the Spanish flu of 1918, when the relatively mild illness of spring and summer was followed by deadly second and third waves as the disease mutated and started to kill otherwise healthy young people.
Many of them died of secondary infections related to pneumonia. The toll worldwide was estimated at 50 million people -- more than died in World War I.
Planning for H1N1 ranges from big decisions, such as what city functions must continue and which can close first, to tiny but important details, such as who gets the keys to a room or who knows a computer password.
One of the questions 14 northern suburbs in Hennepin County had to answer as they cooperated on a pandemic flu preparedness plan was what constitutes essential services, said Golden Valley Fire Chief Mark Kuhnly.
"If absenteeism is high enough, we would have to temporarily eliminate or close offices," he said. "Public works plays a vital part with water [supply] and snow removal. ... We would try to keep emergency services like police and fire going, even if it's necessary to work with other cities. We have agreements to share resources."
Tracking the spread
An H1N1 flu pandemic was declared this summer, meaning the illness, also known as swine flu, is widespread. Most of those who have gotten sick so far have been children. But with flu still spreading, more cities -- Minneapolis, Roseville and Burnsville among them -- are tracking employee absences each day to see if they can detect trends that should trigger a stronger city response.
"We have a few employees with flu-like symptoms," said Burnsville Police Sgt. Dan Carlson, the city's emergency manager. "We are trying to stay ahead of the curve, see how many shifts are affected."
Worst-case scenarios in city "continuity of operations" plans are designed to handle employee absences as high as 40 to 50 percent. Bloomington, Golden Valley, Minneapolis, Burnsville, St. Louis Park, Roseville and other cities have tried to cross-train employees so they can back up critical departments such as payroll and utilities and departments that respond to emergencies. If absenteeism got high enough, nonessential offices like parks and recreation would temporarily close and services like property inspections would be suspended until the flu ebbed.
Police and fire employees under age 50 have already received the nasal spray vaccine for H1N1 through county health departments, if they wanted it. Unlike the injected vaccine, the mist contains live flu virus. Those who are not comfortable with that vaccine will join older fire and police employees who will be first in line for H1N1 flu shots. In some cities, police cars and fire trucks are already equipped with gloves, masks and hand sanitizers.
Roseville has tweaked its procedures to add 72-hour emergency powers for the city manager and emergency management leaders to allow them to make emergency purchases or shut down large meeting sites in cooperation with the state without having to seek City Council approval.
In Bloomington, city officials have run through "what-if" scenarios: What if 30 percent of the city's workforce became sick? What if grocery stores had trouble getting food?
"It's not so much to have ironclad answers, but to not be surprised if this happens," said Bloomington Fire Chief Ulie Seal. "We can figure out how to prioritize essential functions, make choices on what services to deliver."
He cautions that even extensive planning is no guarantee that everything would go smoothly if the flu worsens.
"The key is to be able to respond," Seal said. "If you have plans and scenarios, you know you're better off than if you hadn't prepared at all. Still, unexpected things happen."
Tim O'Neill, co-director of emergency management for Roseville, agreed.
"You have to plan for the worst, prepare for that and then scale back as needed," he said. "You don't want to misjudge and end up in a really bad situation.
"If it's no worse than it is today, we'll look back and say, 'Whew, we learned from that.'"
Mary Jane Smetanka • 612-673-7380
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