At Brigham Group Staffing in Bloomington, founder Jennifer Brigham has seen business pick up in recent months along with the economy.

She's hearing from plenty of manufacturing customers who have work for the machinists, robotic tool programmers and other workers her firm recruits.

But they only want temps. Few have the confidence to add anyone permanent.

"We are extremely busy," Brigham said. "But this is the most uncertain that we have ever felt. I can't remember a time when it's been this tentative."

With the nation nearly a year into a hesitant recovery, the same story is playing out across the economy in ways large and small.

As sales wobble from week to week, it's tough for businesses to have the confidence required to add people and expand. And among consumers, even those with good jobs remain leery of major purchases. The big question: Will the economy continue to gradually build momentum and pull itself toward health, or have the signs of renewal been a mirage?

People who watch the business world for a living can't agree.

On one hand, the economy has grown consistently for the past year and employers have added jobs through most of 2010. But both those measures have slowed recently. Some worry whether the economy can stand on its own yet without government stimulus.

James Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management, sees a type of "Armageddon hypochondria" that's become more prevalent. Any sign of economic weakness is taken to show that the worst is on the way.

Though still of the mind that the economy is recovering and won't fall into a so-called double dip recession, Paulsen worries about a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"If nobody hires, nobody spends, we're going to die economically," he said.

A stalled job search

For some, it feels as if that's already happened. Some 128,000 Minnesotans have lost jobs since 2008. Many of them are still searching for work.

Pam Pommer of Bloomington lost her job as a Park Nicollet print production artist 14 months ago and has been scrambling ever since to find work.

Recently, she applied for a job with the city of Bloomington and 300 people showed up to take a required test. "All those people were applying for that one job," she said. "I am competing with so many others."

Time and money are running out. With a mortgage and COBRA health insurance to pay, her savings will be gone by November. Her federal unemployment stops in nine weeks.

Pommer, 56, took a summer job hauling manure, soil and hefty pots at Bachman's to help pay expenses. Now that's coming to a close, so she's also doing some dog sitting.

With so many people struggling in similar situations to Pommer's, the American consumer, who served as the economy's engine for decades, is in no position to pull the same load now.

When she was first laid off, Pommer returned $150 worth of "mindlessly bought" CDs, DVDs and clothes. Now she stays out of the stores entirely. She no longer eats out or gives birthday gifts to friends, and the entertainment budget has become a cup of regular coffee with friends twice a month.

"It's scary," she said. "I'm tired of the lack of commitment and lack of security."

Louis Johnston, an economic historian at the College of Saint Benedict/Saint John's University, says he doesn't blame consumers for not spending.

Even those who in the past may have considered their jobs bullet-proof are focused on cutting spending and rebuilding savings in case they're next. Personal spending dropped last year for the first time since 1980; the savings rate has nearly quadrupled since 2005.

Johnston said that while many people remember the recoveries that followed recessions in the early 1980's, early 90's and 2001, this looks different.

"We've just never seen a recession this bad," he said. "We had a situation where the financial system for all intents and purposes imploded and the [Federal Reserve's] traditional tools of being able to just lower interest rates to get us out of this'' have been used already, he said.

He thinks the recovery will continue, but slowly. For now, no corner of the economy appears immune.

"I think there's a lot of uncertainty right now among people who are working in state and local government about whether they are going to be able to keep their jobs," Johnston said.

Watching every dollar

Johnston could be describing Mary Falk and her daughter Melinda Pearson, both of whom work in the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities system.

Falk, 59, encouraged Melinda, 23, to get a state job because of the union protection, job security and benefits. Falk, who's been working at Anoka Tech for 15 years, remembers feeling relatively immune during the recession of 2001.

Not so this time.

"I'm not buying near as much, and I watch very closely what I'm spending. It hurts the community because that's what keeps our communities going, people spending money, but when you've got uncertainty ..." she said, trailing off.

She rarely eats out anymore; before the recession it was at least a weekly event. Instead of buying a TV recently, she settled for a hand-me-down from her daughter.

Pearson has worked at Saint Paul College for almost three years. While she's not at the bottom of the seniority list any more, she still worries about her job.

"Every time a budget forecast comes out for the state, my co-workers [and I] are sitting around looking at each other like 'OK, which one of us would it be if they started doing layoffs?'" she said.

Others are feeling the bite through pay freezes or cuts.

Last week, University of Minnesota Prof. LaDora Thompson and other tenured professors were told paychecks will be cut 1.15 percent for a year beginning this month.

Thompson said there are regular reminders of other austerity measures -- office trash, for example, is collected just once a week, not daily.

"It is an ugly time for the economy," she said.

Steve Hine, director of Minnesota's Labor Market Information Office, said job creation so far has been far short of what's needed just to keep up with population growth, much less to replace all the jobs lost.

"We need to get back to a point where we are adding 5,000 jobs a month at the state level and at least 250,000 or 300,000 jobs a month at the national level," Hine said. "We are not getting there quickly enough. ... Just looking at the results [for June], I am having to temper my optimism."

Treading water

Compared with many, Tim Mogck feels fortunate. Despite losing his job designing remodeling projects 17 months ago, the 54-year-old from Shoreview has been able to find work here and there and his wife is still employed.

But cancelling cable, snipping the landline phone and driving older cars wasn't enough to get by. Mogck has also had to tap retirement savings to stay afloat.

He worries about the longer-term implications for the economy when so many baby boomers like him are being forced to draw down retirement savings with so little time ahead to rebuild them before they enter their 60s.

"People my age do not seriously start saving for retirement until our kids leave the nest," he said. "And what little we have accumulated is being drawn down just to keep up."

He's trying to sell his house. Since spring, it's been on the market for $585,000 -- $300,000 less than it appraised for at the peak.

Mogck, who designed and built much of the house himself, said he's glad he at least still has some equity. About 17 percent of Minnesotans owed more on their houses than the properties were worth as of the fourth quarter of last year, according to housing data firm CoreLogic.

Even for those who can afford to sell, it's not a sure thing -- there was seven months' supply of housing inventory for sale in June, according to the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors.

Mogck says downsizing would give him more financial flexibility and the freedom to run with some business ideas. His latest project is Fundraising viatravel.org, a travel site that raises money for organizations every time a user books a trip.

Until a buyer comes along, he waits.

"I call it treading water," he said. "I don't have the financial legs to survive if the economy were to get worse."

A new job, for now

At Brigham Group Staffing, founder Brigham cut half of her 12 employees two years ago. Recently she's found it tough to keep up with the work but isn't sure how long business will stay that strong.

Six weeks ago she hired Kelly Gilles on a temporary, part-time basis.

"I would love to keep her. But I don't know what the future holds and she doesn't either," Brigham said.

Gilles, a single mom raising two boys in Ellsworth, Wis., was a real estate agent for five years until the housing crash. She found work in a title office but was laid off again. Then she worked two years as the office manager of a financial advice firm in Wisconsin.

She was laid off in May 2009 when weary investors fled the markets.

She is working 28 hours a week at Brigham, placing machinists in temp jobs. At night, she waits tables. Combined, the two jobs don't bring in the same money as her last full-time gig.

"I really want something permanent at some point," she said, adding that she'd like for it to be at Brigham.

"But they don't know how long they'll need me because they don't know how much longer their customers will be busy."

Dee DePass • 612-673-7725 Kara McGuire • 612-673-7293