(Images above courtesy @HockeyDayMN)
First Sub-Zero Temp of Season at MSP?
Sunday morning could be the first sub-zero temp of the season at MSP. If you're keeping track, we've alread set a record for the latest first sub-zero reading at MSP, which was January 18th back in 1889, 2002 and more recently 2012.
Latest First Sub-Zero Temp at MSP on Record
If you can believe it, we're on pace to set a new record here in the Twin Cities for the latest first sub-zero temperature on record. The record at MSP is January 18th, which occurred 3 times in 1889, 2002 and more recently in 2012. The forecast now calls for our first potential sub-zero temperature of the season this weekend.
Next Snow Chance Early Next Week
Our next snow chance rolls in early next week with what looks like our first coating of snow across the Twin Cities in quite some time. Plan on slow commutes early next week as this system rolls through.
Snowfall Potential Early Next Week
Here's the GFS (American Model) snowfall potential through the middle part of next week, which suggests some shovelable snow potential across much of the southern two-thirds of the state. Stay tuned!
Praedictix Briefing: Friday, January 18th, 2019
- Winter weather is already impacting parts of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest this morning, with some reports of 1-2.5" of snow across the Dakotas.
- Snow and ice will continue to spread eastward into the weekend, starting to impact parts of the Ohio Valley tonight and into the Northeast Saturday. Snow will linger through Sunday in the Northeast before finally departing to begin the new week.
- Snow totals of 6-10" will be possible from parts of South Dakota into northern Indiana, which will impact travel across the region. This includes Chicago, where snow will start in time for the evening commute tonight. Ice accumulation of up to a couple tenths of an inch will also be possible across parts of the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday, including Indianapolis.
- In the Northeast, a band of at least 1-2 feet of snow is possible from areas of central Pennsylvania northeastward through much of Maine. Closer to the coast, periods of sleet, rain and freezing rain will be possible. Some of the heaviest ice is possible from parts of Connecticut into eastern Massachusetts, where a quarter inch or more of ice could fall. This could include areas like Boston.
Wintry Weather To Move East Into The Weekend. Snow will continue to fall across parts of the upper Midwest today, spreading into the Ohio Valley as we go through Friday Night. Some ice will also be possible tonight into early Saturday across the Ohio Valley. As this system continues to move east, snow will spread across the Northeast Saturday into Saturday Night, falling heavily at times through Sunday. Ice, sleet, and even rain will be possible as well, especially near coastal areas of southern New England into the New York City and New Jersey areas, and uncertainty remains as to the exact precipitation types and impacts they will have in these areas.
Winter Weather Concerns. Due to the potential of snow and ice with this winter storm, numerous watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued from the Dakotas into Maine. Some of the cities under alerts this morning for this system include:
- Pierre, SD: Winter Storm Warning through 6 PM tonight for 4-7" of additional snow.
- Sioux Falls, SD: Winter Storm Warning through Midnight tonight for 5-8" of snow.
- Mankato, MN: Winter Storm Warning through 10 PM tonight for 4-8" of snow.
- Omaha, NE: Winter Weather Advisory through 6 AM Saturday for 2-4" of snow and a light glaze of ice.
- Kansas City, MO: Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM tonight to 3 PM Saturday for 1-3" of snow and a light glaze of ice.
- Des Moines, IA: Winter Storm Warning from Noon today to 6 AM Saturday for 4-8" of snow.
- St. Louis, MO: Winter Weather Advisory from Midnight tonight to 6 PM Saturday for 2-4" of snow.
- Chicago, IL: Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM today to Noon Saturday for 5-9" of snow.
- Milwaukee, WI: Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM tonight to Midnight Saturday Night for 5-9" of snow.
- Indianapolis, IN: Winter Storm Watch from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM Sunday for 2-4" of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice.
- Cleveland, OH: Winter Storm Watch from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM Monday for 6-10" of snow through Sunday morning, with light to moderate lake effect snow Sunday afternoon and night.
- Pittsburgh, PA: Winter Storm Watch from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM Sunday for 2-8" of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice.
- Buffalo, NY: Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 6 PM Sunday for 8-15" of snow.
- Albany, NY: Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 4 PM Sunday for 12-20" of snow.
- New York City, NY: Winter Storm Watch from Noon Saturday to 6 PM Sunday for 3-6" of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice.
- Boston, MA: Winter Storm Watch from 4 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday for 6"+ of snow and up to three-tenths of an inch of ice.
- Portland, ME: Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday for 12"+ of snow.
Snowfall Potential. Snow totals of 6-10" are expected across parts of the upper Midwest, including in the Sioux Falls, Milwaukee, and Chicago areas, with most of this snow falling Friday into Saturday. This weekend, the heavy snow pushes into the Northeast, where a band of at least 1-2 feet is possible from areas of central Pennsylvania northeastward through much of Maine. Snowfall amounts near the I-95 corridor from southern New England into New York City are the most uncertain right now as it depends on how fast snow changes over to rain late Saturday into Sunday.
Ice Potential. There will also be the potential of ice with this winter storm, especially from parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. Some of the heaviest expected ice is across parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts, where a quarter inch or more of ice is possible. If this much ice were to fall, there would be the risk of power outages across the region that sees the heaviest ice accumulation.
Chicago Snow Potential. Looking closer at Chicago, snow will move in later today in time for the evening commute, falling heavily at times during the overnight hours. 4-8" of snow could fall through early Saturday, with an additional 1-3" possible from lake effect snow late Saturday into early Sunday. Overall snow totals in Chicago and across parts of southeastern Wisconsin, northeastern Illinois, and northwestern Indiana near Lake Michigan are expected to be in the 9-12" range.
New York City Snow And Ice. In New York City, precipitation will start off as snow during the late afternoon hours Saturday, turning over to a mix of snow, sleet, rain, and freezing rain Saturday Night into Sunday. Snow and sleet accumulations of 2-4" will be possible in New York City, with slight icing as well during the overnight hours. Better chances of accumulating snow and ice will occur west and north of town.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
By Paul Douglas
SATURDAY: Partly sunny & cold for Hockey Day Minnesota. Feels like -10F. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 10.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Winds: NNE 5-10. Low: -1.
SUNDAY: More clouds, few flurries. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 11.
MONDAY: Cloudy with flurries. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 4. High: 19.
TUESDAY: Few inches of snow possible. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 15. High: 22.
WEDNESDAY: Patchy clouds, few flakes in the air. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 13. High: 24.
THURSDAY: Gusty. Turning sharply colder. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 16. High: 22.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Feels like -10F. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 0. High: 6.
This Day in Weather History
1994: The cold continues from the previous day with a low of -47 at Brainerd and, despite the heat island effect, the Twin Cities' airport hit -27.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 24F (Record: 49F set in 1921)
Average Low: 7F (Record: -34F set in 1970)
Record Rainfall: 0.57" set in 1988
Record Snowfall: 7.5" set in 1988
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 18 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 00 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): ~ 32 minutes
Moon Phase for January 19th at Midnight
0.9 Days Until Full "Wolf" Moon
"Jan. 20: Full Wolf Moon 11:16 p.m. CST - Amid the frigid cold and deep snows of midwinter, the wolf packs howled hungrily outside Indian villages. The Full Wolf Moon was also known as the Old Moon or the Moon after Yule in other cultures. In some tribes this was the Full Snow Moon; most applied that name to the next moon. This year, there will be also be a total lunar eclipse that will be visible across the entire Western Hemisphere as well as Europe and a swath of western Africa. Totality will last 1 hour and 2 minutes."
"A lunar eclipse and a ‘super blood wolf moon’: how to watch this cosmic event"
"Skygazers are set to be treated to a total lunar eclipse this weekend, on top of a “super blood wolf moon.” The cosmic event is the convergence of a few stellar lunar events — an eclipse coinciding with a supermoon turning an eerie blood red. The eclipse will be visible to much of the Western Hemisphere, including Canada, the U.S., Mexico and South America on Sunday, Jan. 20, and finish early Monday, Jan. 21 (ET time). Here’s what you need to know. If you’re planning to watch the lunar eclipse, you may have to stay up a late. It begins around 9:12 p.m. ET on Jan. 20. However, you probably won’t be able to see any movement until the first phase of the eclipse, which is set to happen at 10:34 p.m. This is when the moon starts to get a little darker. Around 11:41 p.m., the full eclipse slowly sets in and then the maximum eclipse is set to take place at 12:12 a.m. Jan. 21. The total eclipse will end at 12:44 a.m. Unlike a solar eclipse, it’s completely safe to watch a lunar eclipse with the naked eye."
What's in the Night Sky?
According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights:
"Tonight – January 19, 2019 – the moon might look full to you, but it’s not yet. Full moon comes when the moon is most opposite the sun. That’ll be tomorrow evening (January 20, 2019) for us in North America, at which time the full moon supermoon will be totally eclipsed by the Earth’s dark shadow for 62 minutes, starting at 11:41 p.m. EST, 10:41 p.m. CST, 9:41 p.m. MST, 8:41 p.m. PST, 7:41 p.m. Alaskan Time and 6:41 p.m. Hawaiian Time.Meanwhile, the January 19 moon is a waxing gibbous moon. It’s near the bright stars Castor and Polux in the constellation Gemini the Twins. Although we’ve drawn in the stick figure of the Gemini Twins on the chart at the top of this post, you might not see much of Gemini in the moonlight glare except for Castor and Pollux. These two stars are bright and noticeable for being near one another. They form the northeastern part of the Winter Circle."
7 Day Precipitation Potential
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7 day precipitation potential suggests areas of heavy moisture continuing in the Western US with several inches of liquid likely, which could cause flooding at the lower elevations and heavy snow in the higher elevations. Also note the heavy precipitation potential in the Eastern US. Areas of heavy rain will be possible from the Tennessee Valley and south, while areas of heavy snow could be possible in the Northeast