High Temps Saturday
Saturday won't be quite as warm as it was on Friday, but it will still be a bit sticky with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. There will also be widely scattered showers and storms in place across the state, some of which could be strong to severe.
It Could Be Worse: Much of the Planet is Baking
By Paul Douglas
The symptoms of a warming climate are no longer subtle. Heat waves that would have formed naturally are longer and stronger, with more records falling by the wayside.
Europe is reeling from a run of extraordinary heat. Some towns in southwestern Spain and southern Portugal are forecast to see 116F today. That's the air temperature, not the heat index.
An analysis of the blaze near Redding, California suggests a legitimate "fire tornado" reached EF-3 strength recently, with estimated winds as high as 143 mph - strong enough to twist/collapse large high-tension electrical towers.
We just get a taste of the heat here at home in the coming days, with a string of 80s into next week. Weather models hint at 90F next weekend.
This weekend? Have a Plan B, especially today. It's ripe for bands and clusters of T-storms; some packing locally heavy rain. Today won't be an all-day wash-out, and Sunday looks a notch better.
Much of America will bake in the 90s and 100s this month, but a parade of cooler, drier Canadian fronts will dribble cool air southward. Thank you Canada.
SATURDAY: Muggy with T-storms likely. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 80.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Showers and storms likely. Winds: S 5-15. Low: 70
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, warmer. Stray T-storm. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 87.
MONDAY: More T-storms central and southern MN. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 84.
TUESDAY: Sunnier, drier - quite pleasant. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 83.
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sticky sunshine. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 67. High: 87.
THURSDAY: Blue sky, still quiet out there. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 69. High: 86.
FRIDAY: Sunny, bordering on hot. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 89.
This Day in Weather History
1898: Storms dump 4 and a half inches of rain on Montevideo.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 82F (Record: 102F set in 1947)
Average Low: 63F (Record: 48F set in 1978)
Record Rainfall: 2.65" set in 1941
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 33 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~2 minutes & 29 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 1 hour and 4 Minutes
Moon Phase for August 4th at Midnight
1.5 Days Before Last Quarter
Praedictix Briefing: Friday, August 3rd, 2018
- Over a dozen large wildfires continue to burn across California, destroying numerous structures and causing new evacuations. The Carr Fire near Redding continues to be the largest, ranking as the 6th most destructive wildfire (destroying at least 1,555 structures) and the 20th largest wildfire in California recorded history as of evening. Meanwhile, the Mendocino Complex has consumed 125,168 acres.
- Heavy rain that fell evening in Lynchburg, VA, has overtopped the College Lake Dam. While the dam has not failed as of this time, emergency officials are closing monitoring it for any signs of structural failure.
California Wildfires Continue To Burn. Over a dozen large wildfires continue to burn across California, destroying numerous structures and causing new evacuations. Hot, dry and windy weather will continue to create difficult firefighting conditions across the region, allowing these fires to spread as we head through the day and into the weekend. Calfire has more on the wildfires burning across the state.
Carr Fire. The Carr Fire burning near Redding, CA, has burned 126,913 acres and was 37% contained as of CalFire has more on the Carr Fire.evening according to CalFire. This fire ranks as the 6th most destructive wildfire (destroying at least 1,555 structures) and is currently the 20th largest wildfire in California recorded history. While some repopulation of evacuated areas is occurring, CalFire says that low humidity values and atmospheric conditions are increasing fire behavior.
Mendocino Complex. The Mendocino Complex consists of 2 separate fires - the River Fire and the Ranch Fire – east of Ukiah, CA. Combined, both of these fires combined have consumed 125,168 acres and are 39% contained. New mandatory evacuations were declared Ranch Fire and River Fire.in western Lake County. This complex threatens 8,200 structures and has already destroyed 33. Due to the heat and terrain, the Mendocino Complex continues to grow. CalFire has more on the
Ferguson Fire. According to Inciweb, the Ferguson Fire burning near Yosemite National Park has consumed 68,610 acres and is 41% contained. Firefighters worked Inciweb has more on the incident.to contain spot fires around the fire, including those that caused an evacuation of Wawona . Warm and dry weather is expected to increase fire behavior.
Cranston Fire. The Cranston fire - burning nearly Idyllwild - has consumed more than 13,000 acres and is now 96% contained. All evacuations have been lifted. Inciweb has more on the fire.
Critical Fire Weather Concerns. Critical and elevated fire weather concerns are in place again today, where hot, dry and windy weather could create dangerous conditions for rapid fire growth.
Air Quality Concerns. A by-product of wildfires will continue to be smoke and dangerous air quality, which is covering a wide area across the western United States. The most dangerous air quality is in close proximity to the fires, where air quality alerts have been issued. Keep in mind that exposure to particle pollution can cause burning eyes, a runny nose, aggravated lung disease, asthma attacks, acute bronchitis and an increased risk of respiratory infections. Limit outdoor activities and follow medical advice if you have a heart or lung conditions.
Evacuations In Lynchburg, VA. Evacuations of 124 residents have occurred near the College Lake Dam in Lynchburg, VA, as officials are concerned that the dam could fail. 4-6” of rain fell in the areaevening, and due to that heavy rain, the dam has already overtopped with water flowing uncontrolled over Lakeside Drive into Blackwater Creek. The National Weather Service says that if the dam were to fail, “the water depth in Lynchburg could exceed 17 feet .” As of Friday morning, a Flash Flood Warning was in effect for Lynchburg through today, however that could be extended if the threat continues.
Flash Flood Watches Continue Today. Due to the threat of continued heavy rain today from Georgia to New England, numerous Flash Flood Watches are in effect. Not much additional rain would be needed to cause the potential of flash flooding due to recent heavy rain.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that activity (on average) in late June and early July remains pretty tame. Things really start to heat up in August and September though!
Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 15 people have died from lightning; 12 have been males and only 3 have been females. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 232 males have died, while only 64 females have died.
Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of August by state. Florida sees the most with 7, while Minnesota averages 5 tornadoes. During the dog days of Summer, the tornado count typically fades across the nation.
1.) Heavy rain from far eastern Oklahoma eastward to Tennessee, and far northern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, Mon-Tue, Aug 6-7.
2.) Heavy rain from northeast Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley, Wed-Thu, Aug 8-9.
3.) Heavy rain for the southern Alaska coast from about Whittier to Glacier Bay, Tue-Wed, Aug 7-8.
4.) Excessive heat for the northern Intermountain region and northern Rockies, Tue-Fri, Aug 7-10.
5.) Flooding remains possible over the mid-Atlantic.
6.) Flooding is occurring in west-central Florida.
7.) Slight risk of excessive heat for interior northern California, northern and central portions of the Intermountain Region, the northern Rockies, and the northern High Plains, Sat-Sun, Aug 11-12.
8.) Slight risk of heavy rain for the desert Southwest, Sat-Fri, Aug 11-17.
9.) Slight risk of heavy rain for central and eastern portions of Texas, Sat-Mon, Aug 11-13.
10.) Severe Drought across the Central and Southern Plains, the Central and Southern Rockies, the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Basin, California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest.
Temperature Anomaly on Friday
The temperature anomaly across North America on Friday showed temperatures well above average across the Southwest US and across the Dakotas. Meanwhile, the southern US was dealing with cooler than average temps, which at this time of the year is pretty comfortable.
Here's the temperature anomaly as we head through the first weekend of August. Warmer temps will continue through the weekend across the Upper Midwest, but cooler reading will return early next.
Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather loop below shows active weather continuing in the Central US over the weekend with areas of locally heavy rain and possibly a few strong to severe storms. Spotty storms will be possible across the Eastern US and especially in the Northeast.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain across the Southern and Eastern US with several inches of rain possible as we head into the first part of August. Lingering showers and storms over the Midwest could bring several inches of precipitation there as well.
Here is the national drought map from July 24th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and for a few areas in the Central and Southern Plains. The good news is that the Monsoon season continues in the Southwest, so some locations should continue to see improvement there.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, August 11th - 17th will be warmer than average across much of the northern US, but it'll be cooler than average across the Southern US and Alaska.