Saturday Weather Outlook
High temps across the state on Saturday look to be a little warmer than it was earlier last week. In fact, much of the state will have temps in the 80s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average!
Still Sticky on Saturday
Saturday will be a bit more sticky than it was earlier last week as well. In fact, dewpoints across parts of the state could approach 70F once again, which will make it feel almost tropical in those spots. Readings should peak in the mid 60s across the Twin Cities, which will still feel quite humid, but it is summer after all. With that said, "feels like" temps will warm to near 90F during the afternoon.
Weekend Thunder Threat
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a risk for showers and storms both days this weekend. It appears that Saturday's threat will be fairly spotty during the afternoon hours, while Sunday's threat could be a little more organized. In fact, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe storms across parts of the northern half of the state, where a few isolated strong to severe storms could be possible during the PM hours. Stay tuned...
Weekend Weather Outlook
Weather conditions this weekend look a little unsettled across parts of the state, but it won't be a washout. With that said, if you have plans to be on the water or in the great outdoors, make sure you have a plan in place in case a few storms decide to develop.
Weekend Precipitation Potential
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, it appears that most of our weekend rainfall potential will be across parts of northern Minnesota. While it doesn't appear to be a washout, there certainly could be pockets of locally heavy rain with any stronger storms that develop. Also note the lighter rainfall amounts around the Twin Cities, which could develop during the afternoon/early evening hours on Saturday.
US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on July 30th), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. In fact, it's been too wet for many folks, especially earlier this spring when farmers were trying to get into the fields to plant their crops. The only locations that are abnormally dry are those close to the Iron Range and into the Arrowhead.
2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...
2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average, including Sioux Falls, SD and Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its wettest start to the year on record with 35.48" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 23rd wettest year ever in recorded history. Sioux Falls is off to its 2nd wettest start any year on record with 27.19" of precipitation. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities is at its 5th wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +6.79".
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook through the 2nd week of August suggests cooler than average temperature hanging on across the northern tier of the nation, while folks across the southern tier of the nation and across much of Alaska will remain warmer than average.
Well, here we are... Less than 3 weeks away from the start of the MN State Fair. August is the 3rd and final month of Meteorological Summer with average temperatures slowly falling. In fact, the average high at MSP is 83F on the first day of August and is 78F by the end of August. With that said, it can still be quite hot in August. MSP has reached 100F or higher 4 times with the warmest being 103F back in 1936. The extended forecast through the next couple of weeks suggests fairly consistent highs in the 70s and 80s through mid month, which at time could feel warm and sticky, but it appears that we will also fell like early fall, especially as we approaching mid month.
- We’re still tracking Erick and Flossie this morning in the Pacific. Erick continues to weaken as it passes south of the Hawaiian Islands. Flossie will continue to move west-northwestward into the weekend, weakening as it does so. Right now, Flossie looks to recurve northeast of Hawaii early next week.
- In the Atlantic, the odds that an area of low pressure in the central Atlantic will become a tropical depression have decreased since yesterday. It has a window to do so this weekend, but as we head into next week conditions will become unfavorable for development as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
- Another round of heavy rain is likely tonight into Saturday morning across eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, with an additional 3-6" of rain possible in some locations. Flash flooding will be possible.
Tracking Erick. We continue to track Tropical Storm Erick, which is weakening south of Hawaii. As of 5 AM HST, Erick had sustained winds of 50 mph and was moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph. The center of the storm was located about 250 miles southwest of Hilo, HI, or about 310 miles south of Honolulu, HI. Erick will continue to weaken as it moves to the west-northwest over the next couple days. The system will continue to track well south of the Hawaiian Islands.
Main Impact: Heavy Rain. The main impact Erick will continue to have on the Hawaiian Islands is heavy rain through early Saturday. We could see total rainfall amounts of 4-8” on the Big Island, especially along the south and southeastern facing slopes. This could lead to flash flooding, and due to that, a Flash Flood Watch is still in place through Saturday morning.
Tracking Flossie. Further east we have Tropical Storm Flossie, which will cross over into the Central Pacific later today. As of 5 AM HST, Flossie had sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving to the west-northwest at 17 mph. The center of Flossie was about 1,145 miles east of Hilo, HI. Gradual weakening is expected to begin this weekend as the system continues to move off to the west-northwest. This system should recurve northeast of the Hawaiian Islands early next week.
40% Probability Of Formation In The Atlantic. In the Atlantic, there is an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser Antilles. This system is producing limited showers and storms this morning. While the system has a window to become a tropical depression this weekend, its odds have decreased since yesterday, only sitting at 20% in the next 48 hours and 40% in the next five days. As it approaches the Leeward Islands early next week, however, atmospheric conditions become less favorable for any development.
Flash Flood Risk In The Central U.S. Even though the rain from last night has been slowly weakening across portions of Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma this morning, another round of heavy rain will be possible late today into Saturday morning. The good news is that the heaviest rain may fall just west of where last night's heavy rain fell across the region, however, hourly rain amounts of 1-2"+ could lead to overall totals of 3-6" which would still cause the potential of flash flooding. Due to expected heavy rain, a Moderate Risk of Flash Flooding is in place across portions of eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma through Saturday morning.
Potential For An Additional 3-6”+ Of Rain. As mentioned above, there will be the potential of an additional 3-6" of rain across portions of eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma through Saturday morning. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect into Saturday across portions of Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
In Praise of August (and September Too)
By Paul Douglas
This morning, the sun endures past dawn. I realize that it is August: the summer's last stand wrote Sara Baume in "A Line Made By Walking". Personally, I'm a big fan of both August and September; arguably the 2 best months of the year if you enjoy warmth and fewer puddles.
Increasingly, Minnesota springs and early summers are trending wetter - making it hard on farmers and anyone attempting to find a window of dry, agreeable weather. By August the atmosphere is cooling slightly; more stable with fewer pop-up T-storms and a dip in humidity. At the risk of editorializing, September is even nicer - lukewarm at the lake but drier, with consistently low Canadian humidity levels seeping south.
A weak storm aloft will fire off showers and T-storms over Wisconsin later today; a stray T-shower may brush eastern Minnesota by late afternoon. Sunday looks sunnier and warmer, with the next round of storms holding off until Sunday night and Monday, as a sloppy front approaches. A pleasant Canadian breeze returns by late week!
SATURDAY: Warm sun. Late day storm. Winds: SE 3-8. High: 86.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: Calm. Low: 68.
SUNDAY: Hazy sun. T-storms Sunday night. Winds: SW 10-20. High: 88.
MONDAY: Couple hour of showers & storm. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 70. High: 82.
TUESDAY: Plenty of sun, less humidity. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 63. High: 80.
WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, thunder late? Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 64. High: 82.
THURSDAY: Peeks of sun. Cooler Canadian breeze. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 61. High: 78.
FRIDAY: Plenty of sun. Comfortable. Winds: N 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 79.
This Day in Weather History
1896: A violent hailstorm destroys two thirds of the crops in Swift County.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 82F (Record: 99F set in 1941)
Average Low: 63F (Record: 46F set in 1971)
Record Rainfall: 2.36" set in 2002
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 37 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 27 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 hour
Moon Phase for August 3rd at Midnight
3.2 Days Since New Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"EarthSky friend Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona caught the image at the top of this post – a bright meteor, not associated with the Perseid shower, near a bright moon – in early July, 2017. So it’s definitely possible to see and photograph bright meteors in moonlight. And that’s good news for everyone planning to watch the 2019 Perseid meteor shower. This beloved annual shower is a much-anticipated summertime treat for us in the Northern Hemisphere. In 2019, it’ll likely produce the most meteors from late evening of August 12 to dawn August 13. The moon will be in the way, however, in a waxing gibbous phase, bright in the sky on the nights around the peak and drowning many meteors in its glare. What can you do in 2019 to optimize your chances for seeing Perseid meteors? We offer these 10 tips. 1. Realize that this shower rises gradually to its peak. Few meteor showers – certainly not the Perseids – are a one-night event. The Perseid shower lasts from about July 17 to August 24 every year. That’s when our planet Earth crosses the orbital path of Comet Swift-Tuttle, the Perseid’s parent comet. What’s more, the Perseids are known to rise to their peak gradually, then fall off after the peak more rapidly. So the days leading up to the peak are a good time to watch meteors, too. You could start tonight! Expect an increasing number of meteors – and a more bothersome moon – as we get closer to 2019’s peak. 2. Be aware of the time of moonset each night. As much as possible, in the weeks between now and the peak, you’ll want to be out looking after moonset. Click here to find out when the moon sets in your sky, remembering to check the moonrise and moonset box."
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
"Chinese tourists injured after ‘tsunami pool’ malfunctions at water park"
"Scores of swimmers at theme park near North Korean border were injured by a sudden tidal wave that operators say was caused by damaged electronic equipment Some of the 44 people injured suffered fractured ribs after problem with wave-generating machinery caused accident. Forty-four tourists have been injured by a bigger-than-expected wave at a “tsunami pool” in northeast China, according to a local government announcement. The incident occurred at Yulong Shuiyun Water Amusement Park in the city of Longjing near the border with North Korea. Five people were still being treated in hospital for injuries, including fractured ribs, but their condition is stable, according to a notice posted on Weibo by the Longjing city government on Tuesday. “According to the initial stages of the investigation, the incident was caused by a power cut that damaged electronic equipment in the tsunami pool control room, which led to the waves in the tsunami pool becoming too big and injuring people,” the notice said."