"HydroClim Minnesota for Early December 2018"
"What happened in November 2018:

**November fell short for precipitation across most of Minnesota. The only exceptions were in the far southeast and far northeast. In general precipitation departures were around a half inch below normal.
**November was the second below normal month in a row. The preliminary average statewide temperature was 24.5 degrees or 6.5 degrees colder than normal.

Where we stand now:

**As of December 6, 2018 there is snow cover southern and northern Minnesota, but snow cover is scant over central Minnesota.
**The US Drought Monitor Map released on December 6 depicts a small area in Northwest Minnesota in Abnormally Dry conditions.
**Ice is affecting many streams across Minnesota, especially across the central and north.
**On December 6 the level of Mille Lacs was .66 feet above the median for the date and has been above the median since June.
**Corn for grain harvest at 96% complete was five days behind the five-year average. Soil moisture levels at Lamberton and Waseca were above the historical median for the last report in early November.

See more from MN DNR Climate Page HERE:


Weather Outlook For Sunday, December 9th

High temps across the state on Sunday will be pretty close to normal for early/mid December. Highs will range from the lower 20s across northern MN to the mid/upper 20s across southern MN, which will be a little cooler than average. Good news for folks that will be traveling, it looks like Sunday will be very quiet statewide with no precipitation expected.
Temperature Outlook
Well, the last few days have been pretty chilly, but it looks like there may be a mid December thaw on the horizon! 

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

If you're not a fan of the chilly weather as of late, you'll be happy to know that the extended temperature outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center suggests a warmer than average December 15th - 21st across much of the nation. Keep in mind that the average high in the Twin Cities during that time period ranges from 25F to 27F. The extended forecast for the Twin Cities during that time looks like it'll be in the low/mid 30s.


"How To Tell If Your Symptoms Are The Flu Or Just A Cold"

"The flu and the common cold are nasty respiratory illnesses with some similar symptoms. Here’s how to tell the difference. In the winter literally everyone seems to be getting sick. Your coworker won’t stop coughing and your kid keeps coming home from school a snotty mess, and a box of tissues barely lasts you one day. Contrary to popular belief, cold weather does not make you sick — but respiratory viruses (namely, influenza) do tend to peak during the fall and winter. In the US, flu season typically lasts from October to March. However, a nasty case of sniffles and aches during the winter doesn’t always mean you have the flu. Often, it’s just a cold, which you can get any time of the year. The common cold and flu are both contagious respiratory illnesses that can make you feel miserable, but they are caused by different viruses. Some flu symptoms may mimic a cold, but the flu tends to be much more serious and deadly — so it’s important to know the difference between these two illnesses. Obviously, only a doctor can diagnose you, but knowing how to recognize symptoms is always helpful. So how can you tell if your symptoms mean you have a cold or the flu, and what is the best treatment? We spoke to Dr. Tania Elliott, an allergist and immunologist at NYU Langone Health in New York City, to find out."
Cold and Flu Forecast - Minneapolis
According to Pollen.com, the Cold and Flu forecast through early next week suggests that we will be running and medium to medium-high levels. Wash your hands!!
"14 Ways to Avoid Colds and Flu"
"Are you avoiding your co-worker with that hacking cough, cold, or flu in the cubicle next to you? Do you draw your hand back from every doorknob? Have cold-and-flu phobia? Get a grip before the grippe gets you. Weve consulted dozens of medical experts to bring you 14 ways to avoid colds and flu this season. Every time you shake someones hand, wash yours: But dont stop there. Wash them as much as possible, says Mark Mengel, MD, chair of community and family medicine at Saint Louis University School of Medicine. Running lots of water over your hands will dilute any germs and send them down the drain. Keep your hands off: Touching your nose and your eyes may hurt you, Mengel says. Those are the most common places for germs to get in."
"Cross-country skier rescued from Roseville lake"
Authorities say ice was too thin this early in the season. A cross-country skier was rescued after falling through ice in a Roseville lake Thursday evening. According to the Ramsey County Sheriff’s Office, the skier was not injured after being pulled out of McCarrons Lake. Randy Gustafson, public communications director with the Sheriff’s Office, said authorities received a 911 call about 4:30 p.m. Thursday. They quickly found and pulled the skier out of the water. “They shouldn’t have been skiing,” he said. “Ice is not thick enough to be out on it yet.”
Recent Cold Weather Making Ice on Area Lakes and Ponds
Ok folks - I know there A LOT of eager anglers excited that the recent cold blast has been making ice on area lakes and ponds, BUT please make sure you aren't putting yourself in danger on newly formed ice! The MN DNR has some basic guidelines on how thick the ice should be before you even think about stepping out onto the ice! Also remember that ice is NEVER 100% SAFE!
Mostly Quiet Weather Ahead

Weather conditions over the next several days looks REALLY quiet! The next best chance of any snow would come midweek and at this point it looks very light if any at all. Snow lovers are still waiting for something substantial and looking at the models, I don't see anything promising over the 10 days at least.
GFS (American Model) 10 Day Snowfall Forecast
Here's the latest 10 day snowfall forecast from the GFS (American Model). Note that it doesn't show anything major through the week ahead. Keep in mind that the Twin Cities typically averages nearly 12 inches of snow during the month of December. So far, the MSP Airport as seen 3 inches of snow through the first 8 days of the month. However, for the snow season so far (since July 1st), the Twin Cities is nearly -5.5 inches below average.
If Planets Align The Sun May Be Visible Today
By Paul Douglas
Attempting to predict a future state of the atmosphere is a perpetually frustrating endeavor. We tap dozens of weather models. The trick, the art, is knowing what to believe and when.
After the cloudiest autumn in decades, Minnesotans are holding candlelight vigils, praying for a ration of sunlight. Cold, dark and gray is an ugly trifecta of weather
One complicating factor: ice fog. Clear nights with light winds allow temperatures to fall to the dew point, meaning a fully saturated atmosphere. Clouds form on the ground, thick fog capable of frosting trees & roads with a ghostly dusting of icy-white. And less than 2 weeks before the Winter Solstice, the sun is too low in the sky to easily burn away the fog. Meaning a lingering canopy of crud.
There's another risk/threat of seeing the sun today; highs in the 20s giving way to a late-week warming trend. A puff of Pacific air could boost the mercury into the upper 30s next weekend.
The pattern isn't ripe for heavy snow anytime soon, although models are hinting at a more formidable potential for flakes 2 days before Christmas.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Peeks of sun. Please?. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 27.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: WSW 5. Low: 16.

MONDAY: Glimmers of sun, a bit milder. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 28. 

TUESDAY: Status quo. Patchy clouds. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 18. High: 30.

WEDNESDAY: Still gray, chance of flurries. Winds: E 5-10 Wake-up: 20. High: 31.

THURSDAY: Better chance of flurries. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 23. High: 32.

FRIDAY: More clouds than sunshine. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 22. High: 33.

SATURDAY: Squirts of sun. A milder breeze. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 21. High: 36.

This Day in Weather History
December 9th

2003: Significant snow with amounts between 6 to 10 inches falls from southwest Minnesota across the Minneapolis-St. Paul area and into west central Wisconsin. Winds across the area were 25 to 30 mph, with blowing and drifting snow in open areas. Although some parts of far south central Minnesota only picked up 4 to 6 inches, winds in this area were a little stronger, creating near-blizzard conditions. The greatest snowfall totals occurred in the Twin Cities metro, where Chaska, Chanhassen and New Hope all picked up 11 inches. Ten inches were recorded at Lamberton, Springfield and Gaylord. There was a sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the snow; Lamberton in southernmost Redwood County tallied 10 inches, while 25 miles to the north at Belview in far northern Redwood County, only 2 inches was recorded. Rockford, straddling the Hennepin/Wright County line, received 6 inches, whereas Buffalo, 10 miles to the northwest in central Wright County, only received 1 inch.

1995: The passage of a strong low pressure system on the 8th leads to wind chill readings of 50 to 75 below as strong northwest winds of 25 to 40 mph ushered significantly colder air across the region. The dangerously cold wind chill readings persisted through the morning of the 9th.

1961: A snowstorm hits central Minnesota. Mora gets about a foot.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 9th

Average High: 29F (Record: 58F set in 1939)
Average Low: 14F (Record: -27F set in 1876)

Record Rainfall: 1.19" set in 1899
Record Snowfall: 10.5" set in 2012

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 9th

Sunrise: 7:39am
Sunset: 4:32pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 52 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~59 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 6 hours and 31 Minutes

Moon Phase for December 9th at Midnight
3.0 Days Since New Moon


What's in the Night Sky?

According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights: 

"After sunset on December 8, 9 and 10, 2018, it’ll be a challenge to spot Saturn near the young moon. Find an unobstructed horizon in the direction of sunset on these evenings, and start your search no later than about an hour after sundown. Both the moon and Saturn will quickly follow the sun beneath the western horizon. Will you see them? Maybe. Binoculars could come in handy. Around the world these next several evenings, Saturn sets about 1 1/2 hours after the sun. The moon’s setting time will vary considerably, depending on the date and your place on the globe. From everywhere worldwide, the moon will be easier to catch on December 9 than December 8. It’ll be easier still on December 10. That’s because, day by day, a wider (yet still very slender) waxing crescent moon will be higher up in the sky at sunset and will stay out longer after sundown. Note that – on December 9 and 10 – the illuminated portion of the moon will be pointing toward Saturn. Click here to find out when the sun and moon set in your sky, remembering to check the Moonrise and moonsetbox. New moon was December 7. It happened at 7:20 UTC; translate UTC to your time. For time zones in the contiguous U.S., that places the time of new moon on December 7 at 2:20 a.m. Eastern Time, 1:20 a.m. Central Time, 12:20 a.m. Mountain Time – and on December 6, at 11:20 p.m. Pacific Time. So, as the sun sets over North America on December 8, the moon will be over 1 1/2 days old. And that’s a very young moon. Take a look at the worldwide map below depicting the day and night sides of Earth for December 8, at 7:20 UTC (precisely one day after new moon). The shadow line passing through Northeast Asia, Japan and to the east (right) of New Zealand shows where it’s sunset when the moon is just one day old. Thus, for Asia and Australasia, it’ll be tougher to see the moon on December 8."

Northern Minnesota Phenology Report - November 20th, 2018
I've always been interested the outdoors and how the change of seasons impacts the birds, plants and animals. I did a little research and found this great weekly segment by John Latimer (Phenologist), who reports on KAXE Radio out of Grand Rapids, MN. Great stuff John - keep up the good work!!
This week: "Phenology Talkbacks and Student Reports: December 4, 2018"

National High Temps - Sunday, December 9th
Take a look at temps across the southern and eastern US on Sunday and note that readings will be nearly 10F to 20F above average! Meanwhile temps across the western US will be a little closer to if not even slightly above average!

National Weather Outlook

A strong storm system will continue to slide across the Southern and Southeastern US with areas of heavy rain, sleet, snow and ice! A number of winter weather headlines have been posted from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic States as well as Flood watches across the Gulf Coast States.

Rain And Snowfall Potential

Here's the rain and snowfall potential through 7pm Monday, which shows areas of heavy snow wrapping up across the Midwest, while areas of heavy rain will continue across the Southeastern US.

Heavy Snow & Icing
Winter Weather Headlines have been posted across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States in advance of wintry precipitaiton that will fall through Monday evening.
Heavy Snow Potential
According to NOAA's NDFD data, areas of heavy snow will fall late weekend and wrap up on Monday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States. Some of the heaviest accumulations could approach 10" to 18", especially in the higher elevations! Areas of ice will also be possible from northeastern Georgia to central North Carolina, where some locations could see up to 0.25" of ice! There will be significant travel concerns within these areas through over the next 2 to 3 days!
"Climate Clock: How Long Until Earth Warms to 1.5 Degrees Celsius?"
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5℃ has opened a window to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase in 2018 for the second year in a row. If this trend continues, emissions will drive global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius in less than 16 years. The Climate Clock we created shows how quickly we are approaching 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming, given current emissions trends. Here, we present our third annual update of the clock in light of the most recent scientific data, released on Dec. 5, 2018. The IPCC special report showed that 1.5 degrees Celsius is an important threshold for many climate impacts. Weather extremes such as heat waves and extreme precipitation events are expected to increase with every increment to global temperature. The risk of irreversible ice sheet loss and consequent sea level rise increases sharply between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius, and nearly all corals could be wiped out at 2 degrees Celsius warming."
"Here's How To Take Care Of Your Dog In The Winter When The Weather Is Icy & Frigid"
"If you don't live in a city that stays balmy all year long, chances are you'll need to take some extra precautions to make sure your pupper stays nice and warm throughout the winter months. When you really think about it, doggie noses and ears can get just as chilly as yours. It can sometimes be confusing to figure out how to take care of your dog in the winter, because it's hard to know exactly how warm your pup's fur actually keeps her, or whether the frozen ground is hurting her tiny paws. Luckily, Dr. Daniel Edge, DVM, MBA, director of veterinary specialty operations for animal health company Zoetis, has a few suggestions to help you make sure your dog stays cozy and safe, even when the temperatures dip below freezing this winter. Of course, as you follow all of these tips, don't forget the fun that you can have with your little guy during this time of year. Wintertime means you can shop forcozy dog scarves (yes, those are an actual thing, and they are magical), run through the snow together, and warm up side by side under the fluffiest blanket you can find."
"The countries that pushed carbon emissions to record levels"
"When it comes to cutting the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, the world isn't just failing — we're stepping our foot on the gas pedal. The big picture: On Wednesday, scientists reported in a series of studies that global emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels are likely to hit record levels in 2018. China and India are responsible for much of that growth, which is erasing optimism from just a few years ago that some countries' emissions might be peaking. Elsewhere, virtually no country is reducing emissions fast enough to balance out the growth. The details: The emissions are growing by a best estimate of 2.7% compared to 2017, according to the reports by the Global Carbon Project, which studies the carbon cycle and closely tracks emissions worldwide. China and India's massive increases have been driven by continued coal use and economic growth drove the increase. China is expected to see an estimated 4.7% increase in emissions for 2018. India, too, is now expected to see a steep increase, despite the rapid deployment of renewables in that nation. Greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are expected to grow by 6.3% in 2018. In the U.S., emissions had declined at 1.2% per year since 2007, but in 2018 there is expected to be an increase of about 2.5%."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Cold, Snowy Spasm Winding Down - Moderating Trend Next 2 Weeks

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20s And 30s For Highs This Work Week - Very Few Precipitation Chances