Friday: Forecast Peak Wind Gusts & Dewpoints
Here's the forecast for peak wind gusts and dewpoints across the region on Friday. Winds could be a little breezy at times, but certainly not as strong as they were on Tuesday, when winds gusted to nearly 40mph across the state. Highest wind gusts may only peak around 15mph to 20mph out of the north-northwest. Dewpoints will also be a little cooler and not quite as sticky as they were on Thursday.
Weather Outlook Saturday - AM Monday
According to NOAA's WPC, more rain will move in to parts of southwestern Minnesota this weekend. It appears that a majority of the rain will fall southwest of the I-94 corridor on Saturday with some 0.25" to 0.75" tallies possible. Lingering light showers will be possible on Sunday, but it doesn't appear to be as soggy as what Saturday will bring. Looking ahead to next week, it could be a more unsettled with 2 separate systems moving through the Upper Midwest. With that said, we may have the potential of more substantial rain totals across the region. Stay tuned!
Can Dogday Cicadas Forecast the First Frosts of Fall?
Fall Ragweed Allergies
AACHOO!! Fall allergy sufferers are having some issues now that the the fall allergy season is in full swing. Take a look at the forecast through the middle part of next week, which suggests high pollen counts continuing over the next several days. The good news is that there appears to be cooler and somewhat soggy weather moving in across the region this weekend, which may help to keep pollen levels a bit lower.
"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"
"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."
"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"
"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."
"Phenology: August 21st, 2019"
US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on September 3rd), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.
2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...
2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average like Sioux Falls, Huron and Rapid City, SD as well as Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its 2nd wettest start to the year on record with nearly 39" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 16th wettest year ever in recorded history. The Twin Cities is at its 2nd wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +8.87".
- Dorian re-strengthened overnight into a major Category 3 hurricane. As of the 8 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Dorian had winds of 115 mph. The center of the system was 70 miles south-southeast of Charleston, SC, or 170 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, NC, and moving to the north-northeast at 8 mph.
- Dorian is bringing heavy rain and strong wind gusts to portions of the eastern Carolinas this morning, with wind gusts approaching 70 mph across portions of coastal South Carolina.
- This system will move in a north-northeasterly direction today, turning more to the northeast by tonight. This motion should keep the center of Dorian off the South Carolina coast today, but a landfall could occur in North Carolina tonight or Friday, particularly across the Outer Banks.
- Dorian will continue to bring hurricane force winds across portions of the eastern Carolinas (with 100+ mph wind gusts possible from Wilmington to the Outer Banks), heavy rain up to 15”, and a life-threatening storm surge up to 8 feet along the coast.
- Several mandatory evacuations are in place in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic in association with Dorian. Here are links to state emergency management offices, which have the latest on any evacuations and shelters that are in place:
- We are also tracking Tropical Storm Faxai and Typhoon Lingling which could have impacts this weekend in Tokyo and Seoul, respectively.
Dorian As Of Thursday Morning. Dorian re-strengthened into a major Category 3 hurricane off the Southeast coast, and the system has now started to move to the north-northeast. Rain bands associated with Dorian are impacting areas from Georgia to North Carolina. As of the 8 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Dorian had winds of 115 mph. The center of the system was 70 miles south-southeast of Charleston, SC, or 170 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, NC, and moving to the north-northeast at 8 mph.Peak wind gusts since midnight include 68 mph in Charleston, SC, and 64 mph at Federal Point in North Carolina. Over the past 24 hours, the Myrtle Beach area has received 4-5”+ of rain, with over 3” in Charleston.
Dorian Track. Dorian will continue to move in a north-northeast direction today and turn more to the northeast by tonight. This motion will continue to keep Dorian close to the coast of South Carolina throughout the day, with the storm moving near or over the North Carolina coast tonight into Friday. As we head into Friday, Dorian’s forward speed will increase, quickly moving the storm away from the Mid-Atlantic as we head into the weekend. The wind field associated with Dorian could still bring some impacts to the Cape Cod area as we head through Friday Night into Saturday. However, the overall motion of Dorian will bring the center of the storm toward Nova Scotia Saturday into Saturday Night.
Hurricane And Tropical Storm Alerts. Due to the continued and expected impacts of Dorian in the Mid-Atlantic, Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings are in place this morning. In coastal areas, they are in place for the following areas:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
Across land areas, the following alerts are in place:
- Hurricane Warnings: Charleston and Myrtle Beach (SC), New Bern, Morehead City, and Hatteras (NC).
- Tropical Storm Warnings: Savannah (GA), Florence (SC), Fayetteville and Raleigh (NC), Norfolk and Virginia Beach (VA).
- Tropical Storm Watches: Salisbury (MD), Hyannis and Nantucket (MA).
You can read hurricane local statements from local National Weather Service offices, which give a better idea of what local officials are expecting with Dorian: https://forecast.weather.gov/
Summary Of Threats. We will be watching the potential for heavy/flooding rains, storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and tornadoes with Dorian across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Above is a quick summary of where some of the worst conditions for each of those threats will be, with more detailed information below.
Tropical Storm Force Wind Timing. This graphic gives a good timing as to when winds could start to reach tropical storm force (39+ mph) with Dorian, which will start to make last minute preparations difficult ahead of the storm. Tropical storm force winds are already occurring across eastern South Carolina this morning and are expected to expand across eastern North Carolina throughout the day. Hurricane conditions will be possible along the South Carolina coast later this morning, and then across eastern North Carolina later today into tonight. Tropical storm force winds will be possible across areas in the Mid-Atlantic under Tropical Storm Warnings by tomorrow morning, and across Cape Cod Friday Night into Saturday.
Potential Peak Wind Gusts In The Carolinas. Destructive hurricane-force wind conditions (74+ mph) will be possible along and just inland across portions of eastern North and South Carolina over the next couple days as Dorian moves through the region. Wind gusts tonight into Friday could approach and top 100 mph for areas from Wilmington to the Outer Banks as the core of strongest winds surrounding the center of Dorian gets closer to the coast and makes landfall in North Carolina.
Potential Peak Wind Gusts Across Cape Cod. The strongest winds across Cape Cod will occur Friday Night into Saturday. Sustained winds of 35-45 mph are expected with gusts to 60 mph possible. This could cause some tree damage, blow around objects that aren’t secured, and bring the potential of power outages. Wind gusts will be stronger the farther southeast you are.
Storm Surge Threat
Above image from the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment.
Dangerous Storm Surge. As water pushes toward the East Coast, there will be the threat of a dangerous surge of water inland to areas that are typically dry, especially if the surge of water coincides with high tide. The surge of water could be in advance of the arrival of strong winds anticipated with Dorian, and it is likely to be accompanied by large, destructive waves. Overall water heights (combining normal tide along with storm surge) of 6-10 feet above mean sea level could occur from near Charleston to Myrtle Beach northward toward Wilmington and the Morehead City and New Bern areas. If the peak water rises do coincide with high tide, we could see the following storm surge from Dorian in the eastern United States:
Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft
Storm Surge Warnings. Due to the potential of storm surge flooding, Storm Surge Warnings are in place from the Savannah River to Poquoson, VA, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, and Hampton Roads.
Heavy Rain And Flooding Threat
Rain Potential. While rain is tapering off this morning across eastern Georgia, heavy rain will continue to fall across portions of the Mid-Atlantic through Friday. Some areas of eastern North and South Carolina could receive overall rain totals of 10-15”. This heavy rain will bring the potential of flooding along with it. Here’s a breakdown of potential rainfall amounts from the NHC through Friday:
Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far Southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Coastal Georgia...1 to 2 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches
Flash Flood Threat Continues. This heavy rain will cause the potential of flash flooding along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts over the next couple of days.
- Today and tonight the greatest threat exists across portions of eastern North and South Carolina, where a High Risk of flooding is in place. 24-hour rain totals of at least 5-8” are possible across this area, which will lead to potentially life-threatening flash flooding.
- On Friday another High Risk of flooding is in place associated with Dorian, this time over portions of the Outer Banks and southeastern Virginia. Additional heavy rain will be possible during this time period (especially in the morning hours) that will bring overall totals to a foot or more in spots, once again leading to the potential of life-threatening flash flooding.
Tornado Watches. As individual strong storms in the rain bands of Dorian reach land, some will be capable of producing tornadoes across portions of the Carolinas today. A Tornado Watch has been issued for areas like Myrtle Beach and Wilmington until 4 PM due to this threat. For areas like New Bern, Hatteras, and Fayetteville, the watch is in place until 7 PM.
Dorian Summary. Dorian continues to be a very dangerous hurricane, packing sustained winds of 115 mph in the core of the storm as of Thursday morning. This system will continue to bring multiple impacts to portions of the Mid-Atlantic over the next couple days, including storm surge up to 8 feet in some locations, rainfall amounts up to 15” that could bring flash flooding, potentially 100+ mph winds from Wilmington to the Outer Banks, and occasional tornadoes. The worst conditions will be expected through Friday across the region as Dorian quickly starts to pull away from the United States tomorrow. However, some wind and rain impacts will still be possible Friday Night into Saturday across Cape Cod due to the expansive wind field expected by that time in association with this storm. Hurricane Dorian continues to be a life-threatening weather event for portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts and facilities should be prepared for this storm as we go through the next 24-48 hours.
Tropical Storm Faxai and Typhoon Lingling. Out in the Western Pacific, we are also tracking two systems as we head into the weekend. Tropical Storm Faxai is expected to gradually strengthen over the next few days, becoming a typhoon by Saturday (local time) and becoming the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph by Sunday evening as the system approaches Japan. This storm will have to be watched for potential impacts in Tokyo late this weekend into early next week with the potential of strong winds and heavy rain. We are also tracking Typhoon Lingling, which had winds of around 130 mph as of Thursday evening. This storm will continue northward through the end of the week and into the weekend, gaining a little more strength in the next 12-24 hours before the storm starts to weaken. As the center of the storm moves west of Seoul Saturday local time, the storm could still have maximum sustained winds of around 95 mph. Winds will likely be less than that Saturday in Seoul but could still gust up to 60-65 mph, especially in the midday and afternoon hours, with rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook as we head into the middle part of the month looks warmer than average across much of the nation, including the Upper Midwest.
Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the 3rd week of September, which shows up and down temps over the next couple/few weeks. Note that after Thursday's 'warmer' day, readings will fall quite a bit into the weekend with highs only warming into the 60s. We may see temps rebound to above average again next week, but according to the GFS, we may be stuck into the 70s through much of mid September. Stay tuned.
Hurricanes May Need a Better Rating Scale
By Paul Douglas
Meteorology, like all science, evolves and improves over time. Ted Fujita coined the F-scale for rating tornadoes, but it was improved in 2007 to better match wind speed estimates with observed damage.
The Saffir-Simpson Scale used to rate hurricanes (Category 1 to 5) may be in need of a similar overhaul. Today it reflects wind speed, at a time when the vast majority of damage and deaths comes from the storm surge and inland flooding, often hundreds of miles from landfall. Stay tuned.
Dorian lashes the Outer Banks of North Carolina today before brushing Cape Cod, then slamming the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
A fine Friday here at home gives way to a few generic showers this weekend, with temperatures cooler than average. Heavier T-storms next week accompany a warmer front - I still expect a couple days in the 80s by midweek.
By the way, think twice about an oceanfront vacation in September. Statistically, hurricanes are most likely to strike the U.S. coastline on or around September 10.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and comfortable. Winds: N 8-13. High: 76.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Winds: Calm. Low: 58.
SATURDAY: Clouds increase, PM showers. Winds: NE 3-8. High: 69.
SUNDAY: Showers slowly taper, drying out late. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 54. High: 66.
MONDAY: Heavier showers and t-storms. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 55. High: 68.
TUESDAY: Early puddles, then warm sunshine. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 59. High: 81.
WEDNESDAY: Elevated risk of showers and t-storms. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 79.
THURSDAY: More t-storms in the area. Some heavy. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 61 High: 75.
This Day in Weather History
1977: An early morning thunderstorm drops 2 inch hail in McLeod County.
1922: A heat wave over Minnesota brings highs over 100 to southwest Minnesota. One of the hot spots is New Ulm with 105.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 76F (Record: 98F set in 1922)
Average Low: 57F (Record: 35F set in 1985)
Record Rainfall: 1.61" set in 1881
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 02 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 hour & 37 minutes
Moon Phase for September 6th at Midnight
1.2 Days Since First Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"These next several evenings – September 5, 6 and 7, 2019 – feature the moon and the solar system’s two largest gas giantplanets, Jupiter and Saturn. Given clear skies, you can’t miss the moon and Jupiter. The moon is the second-brightest celestial object, after the sun; Jupiter ranks as the fourth-brightest, after the planet Venus, which is in the sun’s glare this month. With Venus gone from our sky, there’s no way to mistake Venus for Jupiter in September 2019. Jupiter is simply the brightest starlike object visible. You’ll also find a reddish star shining close to Jupiter on the sky’s dome. It’s Antares, the brightest star in the constellation Scorpius the Scorpion. Although Antares provides a prime example of a 1st-magnitude star, it nonetheless pales next to Jupiter. Jupiter, which is brighter than any star, is nearly 20 times brighter than Antares."
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
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