Heavy Rain Potential - Strongest Storms To Pass Just South of MSP
June 16, 2014 — 4:51pm
Severe Storms Far Southern Minnesota. Warnings are posted for Fairmont and Saint James - winds clocked as high as 85 mph with some of these storms. It still looks like the greatest wind damage risk (straight-line and tornadic) is along the I-90 corridor into the evening hours. I expect strong T-storms in the MSP metro, where the main threat will be heavy rain, small hail and possibly gusts to 50 mph. NWS Doppler at 4:49 PM.
Close Call. NOAA's HRRR model shows the most severe storms passing just south of the Twin Cities this evening, possibly brushing the southern suburbs with high winds and hail. Another 1-2" of rain is possible, especially from Shakopee and Lakeville to Cottage Grove and Red Wing. Some flash flooding is likely, especially south of the metro area early tonight.
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Yesterday seemed to confirm my theory that most of Minnesota probably won't have to worry about drought this summer (in stark contrast to severe drought gripping much of the Dakotas). We've seen our fair share of hot days, but our heat spikes pale in comparison to what is on tap from the Midwest to the Mid Atlantic, where the heat index may exceed 110F this weekend. It's muggy out there, but at least we see a few dribbles of Canadian air in the coming days...
Low 80s felt pretty good yesterday, about 10F cooler than Monday as a weak frontal boundary pushed just south of Minnesota, allowing slightly cooler, drier air to dribble south. Much of today looks dry, but watch for a squall line of strong to severe T-storms reaching the metro by the dinner hour. A few more waves of storms push across Minnesota into Saturday, when a cooler front of Canadian ancestry rides to the rescue. The rest of the USA should be so lucky...
Well Monday was pleasant, if you're into hot weather oppression. Low 90s, but a high dew point made it feel more like 100F in the shade by late afternoon. Louisiana with lakes, instead of bayous. Today should be just as sticky but a few degrees cooler thanks to heavy showers and T-storms in the area. A few may turn severe later on, and watch for ponding of water, even flash flooding as T-storms keep redeveloping over the same counties. A surge of comfortable air is shaping up by Sunday and Monday.
Bright sun, cooler temps and much less humidity will make Sunday one of the nicest Sundays this summer, no question. We make a quick turnaround to sweaty weather again Monday with heavy rain potential this week. Check the blog for more. -Todd Nelson