Heavy Rain Potential - Strongest Storms To Pass Just South of MSP
June 16, 2014 — 4:51pm
Severe Storms Far Southern Minnesota. Warnings are posted for Fairmont and Saint James - winds clocked as high as 85 mph with some of these storms. It still looks like the greatest wind damage risk (straight-line and tornadic) is along the I-90 corridor into the evening hours. I expect strong T-storms in the MSP metro, where the main threat will be heavy rain, small hail and possibly gusts to 50 mph. NWS Doppler at 4:49 PM.
Close Call. NOAA's HRRR model shows the most severe storms passing just south of the Twin Cities this evening, possibly brushing the southern suburbs with high winds and hail. Another 1-2" of rain is possible, especially from Shakopee and Lakeville to Cottage Grove and Red Wing. Some flash flooding is likely, especially south of the metro area early tonight.
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It's still not nearly as nasty-cold as it was 4 winters ago. The winter of 2013-2014 was the coldest since 1936, a true (and increasingly rare) pioneer winter. Meteorological winter has been a few degrees colder than average, but the entire heating season (since last August) is actually running a little warmer than average. We warm up into the 30s next week, but short-term there's another chance for accumulating snow late Thursday; possibly enough to shovel and plow.
February is the bleakest month for many of us - March can't come fast enough. Sure it snows in March, but snow usually melts within a day or 2, and temperatures reach the 30s and 40s - almost a bargain compared to January. Then again, the Twin Cities has cold weather boasting rights for the USA - 5th coldest (big) city in the world? Bold North indeed.
Snow falls north of the MSP metro area Sunday, but we're still on track for a couple inches of slush Monday. By the time the system really gets going, fueled with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it'll be too far east for heavy amounts here. Another coating of flakes Tuesday gives way to blue sky by midweek. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
A little snow and ice is possible this morning, but most of the significant snow on Sunday will fall over central and northern Minnesota. There's another chance of snow Monday, when an inch or two may fall on the metro, but this may wind up being more of a nuisance event for the immediate Twin Cities, but plowable over parts of central and northern Minnesota.