Heat Advisory Friday
 
"Heat indices will climb to 95 to 100 degrees this afternoon across the 7 county Metro. Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks inside of an air-conditioned building. Those engaging in strenuous outdoor activities will be at greater risk for heat illness."
 
 
Thunderstorm Chances Friday Night & Saturday
 
"Hot and humid conditions develop across most of the area this afternoon. This will lead to strong to severe storms late afternoon into tonight. The severe weather threat continues through Saturday night as well. Hail, damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats both days."
 
 
Hot & Stormy Weekend
 
"Hot and humid conditions develop across most of the area this afternoon. This will lead to strong to severe storms late afternoon into tonight. The severe weather threat continues through Saturday night as well. Hail, damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats both days."
 

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Grandma's Marathon Weekend - Duluth, MN
 
Duluth is a beautiful place and was fortunate enough to live there for four years when I got my first job in TV meteorologist right after college. The weather can be wild at times and when the wind is right, it is MUCH colder by the lake. For folks heading north to take part in the wonderful Grandma's Marathon festivities, it looks like it could be a fairly unsettled weekend. Several rounds of storms could produce heavy rainfall through early next week with storms possibly impacting the race early Saturday morning. Stay tuned!
 
 
Grandma's Marathon Forecast
 
A quick glance at the forecast for early Saturday morning along MN's North Shore from Two Harbors to Duluth... Temps will warm into the 60s with a northeasterly wind at 5-15mph. Overnight thunderstorms could linger into early Saturday morning, but will hopefully clear in time to get the race underway. 
 
 
Hot & Humid Weekend Ahead!
 
Here's weather story graphic from the NWS out of Duluth, MN that suggests rounds of thunderstorms impacting the region through early next week, which could bring very heavy rainfall to the area. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe this weekend and there could even be localized flooding.
 
"A stormy weather pattern over the next five days, including the possibility for heavy rain leading to flooding. #MNwx #WIwx"
 
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Weekend Outlook
 
The forecast for the weekend looks really warm across the Upper Midwest with highs in the 90s. The Twin Cities will likely see highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoint around 70F, which will make it feel more like mid to upper 90s at times. There will also be scattered showers and storms, which at times could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain. 
 
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Severe Threat Friday
 
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a SLIGHT risk of severe weather across parts of central  Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A MARGINAL risk of severe weather across much of Minnesota on Friday with isolated damaging wind and large hail events possible. Much of this weekend thunderstorm potential could develop during the overnight hours with the potential of locally heavy rain. 
 
 
Severe Threat Saturday
 
NOAA's SPC has a SLIGHT risk of severe storms for Saturday, which would likely also be a late day concern. Stay tuned!
 
 
Severe Threat Sunday
 
There is another SLIGHT risk of severe weather across southern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin late in the day Sunday. Damage winds, hail and very heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns.
 
 
Weather Outlook
 
The weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Monday suggests widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across parts of the Upper Midwest. Keep in mind that these storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain and will be developing on the northern periphery of the dome of hot and humid weather. 
 
 
Rainfall Potential - GFS
 
The rainfall potential through 7pm Sunday suggests fairly heavy amounts thanks to several rounds of thunderstorms moving thru the region this weeekend. Note that several locations across central Minnesota could see several inches of rain through early next week. This heavy rain threat will depend heavily on where thunderstorms develop over the next several days.
 
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Excessive Rainfall Potential
 
According to NOAA's WPC, heavy rainfall potential will certainly be in place across parts of the nation as we head into the next few days. Note that there are heavy rainfall risks across the Upper Midwest thanks to round of strong to severe storms that will develop there. There will also be areas of heavy rain that develop around the Four-Corners region thanks to the remnants of Bud.
 
Excessive Rainfall Potential - Friday
 
Excessive Rainfall Potential - Saturday
 
Excessive Rainfall Potential - Sunday

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Extended Temperature Outlook

The extended forecast through June 28th & 29th shows a pretty big warm up as we head into the weekend with highs approaching the lower/middle 90s in the Twin Cities. The images below suggest the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) temperature outlook. Temps will fall back into the upper 70s and low/mid 80s as we approach the Summer Solstice next week.

 
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Pollen Count - MEDIUM

Alright, well it looks like the worst of the spring allergy season is behind us, but according to Pollen.com, we are still running at MEDIUM allergy levels around the Twin Cities. The forecast over the next few days keeps us in that category, however if it does rain, that could help keep pollen levels lower. Regardless, keep the Benedryl handy... ACHOO!!
 
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Active in the Eastern Pacific
 
As of midday Thursday, Tropical Storm Bud was the only named storm in the Eastern Pacific. However, according to NOAA's NHC, there is another wave of energy south of Mexico that has become Tropical Depression FOUR and could become CARLOTTA later Friday.
 
 
BUD in the Eastern Pacific
 
This was the view of Bud as of midday Thursday as it neared the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Interestingly, Bud was a catetory 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 130mph on Tuesday, which is the 2nd major hurricane of the 2018 Eastern Pacific Hurricane season behind category 4 hurricane Aletta last week. Bud will continue to weaken as we head into the weekend, but heavy rain will be a big problem over the next few days.
 
 
Tracking Bud
 
The official NHC track for Bud shows it continuing to weaken as we head into the weekend, with heavy rains being the main concern now. Note that Bud could be a Tropical Depression as it approaches the Southwestern US with heavy tropical rains and flooding being the biggest threat there.
 
 
 Tropical Climatology (June 11th - 20th)
 
This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop in early June. Note that in the Atlantic, the points of origin correlate well with where Alberto developed  2 weeks ago and the points of origin correlate well with where Aletta and Bud have formed in the Eastern Pacific over the last week.
 
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2018 Lightning Fatalities - FIVE

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 5 people have died from lightning; 2 in Florida, 1 in Texas, 1 in Tennesee, and now 1 in Arkansas. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

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2018 Tornadoes So Far...

According to NOAA's SPC, there have been 480 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (June 12th), which is less than what we had at this time over the last several years. 2018, no question, has been a very quiet year in the national tornado department. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average. 

Average Tornadoes in June By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of June by state. Texas sees the most with 24, but interestingly, Minnesota averages 15 tornado this month, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 11 in July and 5 in August, so we are entering our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.

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3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Central Plains, Sun-Wed, Jun 17-Jun 20.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Northern Plains, and the Northern Rockies, Sat-Mon, Jun 16-Jun 18.
3.) Flooding possible across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, the Southwest, the Central Great Basin, and the Central Rockies.
4.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains.
Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley.
5.)Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sat-Mon, Jun 16-Jun 18.
6.) Excessive heat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central Appalachians, Mon-Tue, Jun 18-Jun 19.
7.) Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Wed, Jun 18-Jun 20.
8.) Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat, Jun 16.
9.) Slight risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Mon, Jun 21-Jun 25.
10.) Moderate risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Mon, Jun 21-Jun 25.
11.) High risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Mon, Jun 21-Jun 25.
12.) Severe Drought across the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.

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Temperature Anomaly on Thursday

The temperature anomaly across North America from Thursday showed above average temperatures across much of the Central and Western US, while cooler than average temps were in place across parts of the Great Lakes and eastern Canada.

Temperature Trend

The 850mb temperature anomaly shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the Central US as we head through the first half of the week. However, cooler than average temps will still be found in Northeast, while another batch of cooler than average temps moves in along the Southwest as the remnants of Bud move into the region there.

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Weather Outlook Ahead

Weather conditions over the next few days will remain fairly active across the country as hot and humid weather bubbles north into the Upper Midwest. We will see several round of strong to severe storms develop on the outer periphery of this, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall amounts across the Upper Midwest. We will also see heavier pockets of rain develop in the Southwest as the remnants of Bud move in there.

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7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation across parts of the Midwest as scattered showers and storms develop on the outer periphery of hot and humid weather there. There will also be heavier rainfall tallies across the Southwest as remnant moisture from Bud moves in there. That's great news for the drought, but heavy rain could lead to flooding. We're also getting indications of heavy rains along the Coastal Bend of Texas over the next 5 to 7 days that could lead to flooding. Stay tuned.


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US Drought Outlook

Here is the national drought map from Thursday, June 12th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Hopefully the remnants of Bud will help to less the drought in some places there. However, note the Southeast is drought free now thanks to a VERY wet month of May!

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Hot, humid and potentially very wet this weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Well, here we go again. Another round of hot weather is poised and ready to make us sweat over the next few days. Highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints around 70 degrees will make it feel more like the mid to upper 90s across the southern half of the state through Sunday. Uffda!

This pattern reminds me of July when hot and humid weather typically bubbles up through the middle part of the country. With that said, several rounds of thunderstorms will develop on the outer periphery of the hot dome this weekend, producing strong to severe storms and very heavy rainfall (for some).

Latest models suggest several inches of rain across the central and northern part of the state through Monday. Great timing for Grandma's Marathon in Duluth this weekend. Ugh! What could go wrong?

Remnant moisture from Hurricane Bud in the Eastern Pacific arrives late Sunday into Monday with another surge of heavy rain and strong storms.

You can bet on a booming skeeter population as we approach the Summer Solstice next Thursday. Where's the bug juice?
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Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Hot & humid. Chance of storms. Winds: SSE  10-15. High: 91.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms develop overnight: Winds: S 5-10. Low: 73

SATURDAY: Sticky sun mixed with more storm. Winds: S 10-15. High: 90.

SUNDAY: Still humid. Heavy T-storms develop. Winds: SSW  5-15 Wake-up: 75. High: 90.

MONDAY: Wet start. Lingering T-storms. Winds: NNW 5-15. Wake-up: 68. High: 78.

TUESDAY: More comfy sunshine returns. Winds: NNE 5-10. Wake-up: 78. High: 79.

WEDNESDAY: Still dry. Very pleasant. Winds: W 5. Wake-up: 62. High: 82.

THURSDAY: Mild day. Late day rumble? Winds: 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 81.
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This Day in Weather History
June 15th

1989: Scattered frost develops across Minnesota, with the coldest reading of 29 at Isabella.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 15th

Average High: 79F (Record: 94F set in 1913)
Average Low: 59F (Record: 41F set in 1989)

Record Rainfall: 2.80" set in 1874
Record Snowfall: NONE
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 15th

Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 9:01pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 36 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~27 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 6 Hour 49 Minutes
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Moon Phase for June 15th at Midnight
2.5 Days Since New Moon

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 Temp Outlook For Friday

Here's a look at highs and dewpoints across the state on Friday, which suggests very warm temperatures returning to much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Note that many across the southern half of Minnesota could see highs in the low to mid 90s. Note that with dewpoints near 70F, it will feel more like the mid/upper 90s!

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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, June 21st - 27th will be warmer than average across much of the nation with the exception of the of far western Texas. Also note that much of central Alaska will be cooler than average.

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"This gel sucks humidity out of the room"

"A new gel-like material not only dehumidifies ambient air to improve comfort, but also harnesses the moisture in the air to function as a sun or privacy screen, conductive ink, and even a battery. All these properties are inherent in the material after water absorption, without a need for external power. The hydrogel is a form of zinc oxide—a compound found in sunscreen—can absorb water from the surrounding environment more than 2.5 times its weight and performs at least eight times better than commercial drying agents. Scientists say it is suitable for both indoor and outdoor applications, and is also cheap and easy to produce. “Singapore, like many tropical countries, experience high levels of relative humidity between 70 to 80 percent,” says Tan Swee Ching, assistant professor in the materials science and engineering department at the National University of Singapore Faculty of Engineering. “In a humid environment, the air is saturated with water and as a result, sweat on our body evaporates more slowly. This causes us to feel hotter than the actual ambient temperature, leading to great discomfort. Our novel hydrogel aims to achieve a cooling effect by removing moisture from ambient air very efficiently."

See more from Futurity HERE:


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"Increased deaths and illnesses from inhaling airborne dust: An understudied impact of climate change"

"The Dust Bowl in the 1930s was one of the worst environmental disasters of the 20th century. Intense dust storms relentlessly pounded the southern Great Plains of the United States, wreaking severe ecological damage, forcing 2.5 million people to leave the regionand claiming unnumbered lives, mainly from “dust pneumonia.” Research has shown that this disaster was fueled by a combination of severe droughts and over-cultivated lands. Today, climate change driven by human actions is enhancing the occurrence of droughts in multiple regions around the world. As researchers working at the intersection of environmental health, air pollution and climate change, we wanted to know how increasing drought conditions and population growth in the U.S. Southwest could affect airborne dust levels and public health. In a recently published study, we estimate that if the world stays on its current greenhouse gas emissions path, rising fine dust levels could increase premature deaths by 130 percent and triple hospitalizations due to fine dust exposure in this region."

See more from The Conservation HERE:


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"Do You Know What Lightning Really Looks Like?"

Paintings by artists over centuries have consistently underestimated the number of root-like veins in a lightning strike, researchers found. Here are paintings that incorporate lightning made by artists at various points through history. Which do you think looks most accurate?

See more from NYTimes HERE:


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"Unidentified object caught on Hansville weather cam"

"One of Greg Johnson’s weather cams shows what he says “clearly looks like a very large missile launch from Whidbey Island.” Naval Air Station Whidbey Island is located in Oak Harbor. A spokesperson for Naval Air Station Whidbey Island said, “we don’t have missile launch facilities at NAS Whidbey Island, so we’re not sure what this is.” According to a Facebook post by Johnson, a long-time meteor observer said the object was “definitely not a meteor.” University of Washington Professor of Atmospheric Sciences Cliff Mass says “it really looks like the ascent of a rocket.” However, he has never heard of rocket launches from Whidbey Island."

See more from MyNorthwest.com HERE:


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"Hot streak: U.S. sets records for warmest 3, 4, and 5-year periods"

"With May 2018 ranking as the warmest such month on record in the continental U.S., beating out the Dust Bowl May of 1934, the country has extended a much longer heat streak. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the country has had its warmest 3-year, 4-year, and 5-year periods on record through May 2018. Why it matters: The unusually mild temperatures are one way that global warming is affecting the U.S., as long-term temperatures trend higher. Even if individual months fail to break a heat record, such as April 2018, the long-term trend is clear."

See more from AXIOS Here:


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"Desert Air Will Give Us Water"

"Last year, after a punishing four-year drought, California lifted emergency water-scarcity measures in all but four counties. Residents could sigh in relief but not without resignation. “This drought emergency is over, but the next drought could be around the corner,” California Governor Jerry Brown said at the time. “Conservation must remain a way of life.” He’s right. In April, a study in Nature Climate Change, based on climate model simulations, concluded that a 25 percent to 100 percent “increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected” for the rest of this century, “despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.” In 2015, when a record-setting low of California mountain snowpack was being set, Richard Saykally, a water chemist at UC Berkeley, told me it wouldn’t be unprecedented for the drought to last for decades. “There has been a record of far worse droughts than what we’re experiencing now,” he said, referring to tree-ring data which indicates that, some 500 years back, California suffered something like a 150-year drought. “It is fully possible that this could turn into a 50-year drought or 100-year drought, which would be devastating, unless we have reliable sources of water that don’t rely on precipitation.”

See more from Nautilus HERE:


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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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