6 PM This Evening. NOAA's 3 km HRRR model shows a fairly impressive line of storms from near Brainerd and Crosby into the Twin Cities and Mankato by late afternoon and evening, capable of heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. A Severe Storm Watch may have to be issued by SPC.
Possible Severe Storm Watch Issuance. Parts of southern Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin and northern Iowa are being monitored for a possible Severe Storm Watch. Details from NOAA SPC:
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...AND EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281812Z - 282015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ARCING FROM NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ONGOING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND DROPS OFF MARKEDLY TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH /WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES/ AS A 50 KNOT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THUS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASES...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR A MORE LINEAR MODE TO THE CONVECTION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists, engineers and developers provide weather services for various media at Broadcast Weather, high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster and weather data, apps and API’s from Aeris Weather. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Tuesday mellowed into a nice day with sunshine, low 80s and a welcome dip in dew point. The next few days look pretty terrific with sunshine, 70s and low humidity levels. Jam your lake time in on Friday and Saturday because (shocking news) showers and T-storms return Sunday and Labor Day. What, you were expecting perfection...on a holiday weekend?
Monday felt like a typical day....in mid-July. A minor reality check sets in today as winds blow from the north; chasing downpours into Iowa and Wisconsin, treating us to a cooling trend into Thursday. We warm up a little next weekend with scattered T-storms by Sunday and early Labor Day. Hey, it's a holiday - keep expectations low. No storms with names....
Well, at least it was better than Saturday. After a foggy (thundery) start the sun came out and temperatures reached the mid-80s. Up north severe storms erupted, even a few large and violent (PDS) tornadoes in Polk County. Yes, a bit odd for late August. Expect sticky sun today with another round of irritable storms later in the day. We cool off and dry out by midweek - more storms may be brewing next weekend, but not as formidable as what residents of Florida and the Carolinas are tracking.
I'm happy to report that today will be even nicer than yesterday! That's a pretty low bar, granted, but we should top 80F today with some sunshine, higher humidity and a few stray T-storms. 80s will be the rule this week, with warmer than average weather spilling into Labor Day weekend. The risk of a Gulf Coast hurricane seems to be increasing again - water temperatures in the Gulf are very warm, which may fuel a big storm within a few days.
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