Growing Risk of MCS System - Wind Damage, Flooding Rains Possible
June 16, 2014 — 2:40pm
Developing MCS System? It's still a bit premature, but ingredients seem to be converging for a possible meso-convective system, a large surge of strong to severe thunderstorms which will impact much of central and southern Minnesota into the late evening hours. A Tornado Watch is posted for southwestern MN until 8 PM, conditions most ripe for tornadic supercell storms either side of the I-90 corridor. NWS Doppler at 2:38 PM.
Straight-Line Wind Potential. NOAA's HRRR model, valid at 8 PM, shows T-storms with potentially strong to severe straight-line winds approaching the metro, the greatest potential for wind damage just south of MSP, but it may be a close call.
Ripe For Flash Flooding. NOAA models show rainfall rates as high as 2"/hour possible with some of the storms pushing into central and southern Minnesota. Heavy rain falling on saturated soil will result in rapid run-off and a high risk of flash flooding into the overnight hours.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Ah...so THIS is what's supposed to happen during the winter months. Frozen water. What a concept. We get a brief respite today before the next storm approaches from the south Saturday, brimming with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Another 6-8" during the PM hours Saturday? Odds favor a very plowable amount.
Snow lovers may have reason to smile (or at least grin) in the coming days as 2 systems push into Minnesota. Two plowable snowfalls in the span of about 48-72 hours. Even though temperatures rise well into the 30s for highs next week it would be premature to write off winter just yet.
It's still not nearly as nasty-cold as it was 4 winters ago. The winter of 2013-2014 was the coldest since 1936, a true (and increasingly rare) pioneer winter. Meteorological winter has been a few degrees colder than average, but the entire heating season (since last August) is actually running a little warmer than average. We warm up into the 30s next week, but short-term there's another chance for accumulating snow late Thursday; possibly enough to shovel and plow.
February is the bleakest month for many of us - March can't come fast enough. Sure it snows in March, but snow usually melts within a day or 2, and temperatures reach the 30s and 40s - almost a bargain compared to January. Then again, the Twin Cities has cold weather boasting rights for the USA - 5th coldest (big) city in the world? Bold North indeed.