Developing MCS System? It's still a bit premature, but ingredients seem to be converging for a possible meso-convective system, a large surge of strong to severe thunderstorms which will impact much of central and southern Minnesota into the late evening hours. A Tornado Watch is posted for southwestern MN until 8 PM, conditions most ripe for tornadic supercell storms either side of the I-90 corridor. NWS Doppler at 2:38 PM.


Straight-Line Wind Potential. NOAA's HRRR model, valid at 8 PM, shows T-storms with potentially strong to severe straight-line winds approaching the metro, the greatest potential for wind damage just south of MSP, but it may be a close call.


Ripe For Flash Flooding. NOAA models show rainfall rates as high as 2"/hour possible with some of the storms pushing into central and southern Minnesota. Heavy rain falling on saturated soil will result in rapid run-off and a high risk of flash flooding into the overnight hours.