Growing Risk of MCS System - Wind Damage, Flooding Rains Possible
June 16, 2014 — 2:40pm
Developing MCS System? It's still a bit premature, but ingredients seem to be converging for a possible meso-convective system, a large surge of strong to severe thunderstorms which will impact much of central and southern Minnesota into the late evening hours. A Tornado Watch is posted for southwestern MN until 8 PM, conditions most ripe for tornadic supercell storms either side of the I-90 corridor. NWS Doppler at 2:38 PM.
Straight-Line Wind Potential. NOAA's HRRR model, valid at 8 PM, shows T-storms with potentially strong to severe straight-line winds approaching the metro, the greatest potential for wind damage just south of MSP, but it may be a close call.
Ripe For Flash Flooding. NOAA models show rainfall rates as high as 2"/hour possible with some of the storms pushing into central and southern Minnesota. Heavy rain falling on saturated soil will result in rapid run-off and a high risk of flash flooding into the overnight hours.
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We salvaged an OK weekend after all, not as warm as we thought though. I'm still wondering (out loud) if a canopy of thick smoke from western wildfires kept us a few degrees cooler. The combination of heat and humidity will make it feel more like July this week, a streak of days ranging from 85-90F. Relief arrives next weekend; right now Sunday looks like the wetter, more volatile day. By Labor Day it will definitely feel like September.
Yesterday was a murky day, smoke from western wildfires kept our sky dirty - keeping daytime highs a few degrees cooler. A very warm week is shaping up - I hesitate calling it a heat wave, but a few days may approach or even top 90F. Meanwhile Erika is no longer a tropical storm but that doesn't mean the flood risk for Florida has passed. Not yet.
The rains pretty much avoided the metro yesterday; just a trace of rain at MSP International. Today will be sunny and lukewarm; downright hot weather returns next week with a streak of days in the 85-90F range. Meanwhile we're still keeping an eye on "Erika", which promises to deliver a memorable dousing to Florida early next week.
There's something for everyone in today's forecast: a potential hurricane for Florida and the southeastern USA, early September sweat, some rain (today) and a helpful State Fair Bingo guide. That, and cookies. Sweet Martha cookies...still warm and gooey.
Brushfires are still burning out of control in Washington State and much of the Pacific Northwest; smoke from those fires drifted over Minnesota yesterday, taking the edge off our blue sky. Meanwhile we're watching "Erika" in the Caribbean, which could threaten Florida and the coastal southeast USA by early next week. It puts our soggy Friday into perspective. The sun comes out this week with a shot at 90F next week. No, summer isn't nearly done with us just yet...