Growing Flood Potential: Brainerd Lakes Area (severe risk later, statewide)
August 6, 2011 — 11:25am
Doppler Radar Estimates. NWS Doppler (from MPX/Twin Cities) shows some 3-4" rainfall estimates from near Clarissa to Baxter, as thunderstorms continue to track from west to east along a nearly stationary warm frontal boundary. The NWS has issued a Flood Advisory, here are the details:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... WEST CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... CROW WING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BRAINERD... SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 945 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...AND LOCAL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING OF ROADSIDE DITCHES AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH STANDING WATER ON ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
Nagging Storms. NWS Doppler radar at 11:20 am shows strong storms from just north of Alexandria to Little Falls, the Brainerd area, east to Aitkin, just grazing the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. The chance of storms in the metro will increase by mid/late afternoon as a cool front approaches - a few of the storms may turn severe. Most of central/southern MN is in a "slight risk" of severe storms, according to SPC.
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Yes, La Nina correlates with colder, wetter (snowier) weather for northern tier states, and that could mean a better chance of happy snowmobilers and cross country skiers this winter. Average snow would be nice, about 54", give or take. Odds favor a tougher winter than last year, but I wouldn't assume worst-case (polar vortex) scenarios just yet...
It actually feels like October out there. Soak up the chill because a mild bias continues as far ahead as we can see, certainly into the first week or two of November. Snow? I don't see it - in fact many suburbs within 20 miles of the downtowns will remain frost-free for another week or two. As has been the trend in recent years we're getting another Super-Sized Autumn
Tuesday was extraordinary (nice not to be tracking red blobs on Doppler radar). Today looks a bit cooler, and you may even need a sweatshirt or light jacket by Thursday morning. If you can avoid a frost Friday morning odds are your yard will remain frost-free into next week, maybe Halloween at the rate we're going.
My dog is really looking forward to an end to the thunderstorm season. He was not happy last night, with a few waves of heavy T-storms, hail and high water (Doppler radar suggests up to 2" of rain fell over parts of the south metro). Some October. We dry out today, you may even require a light jacket later this week as we limp into autumn. Oh, today's blog has me thinking about buying an emergency generator to keep the lights on.
Sunday was a beautiful day across most of Minnesota - it almost felt like spring out there, complete with a few nighttime T-storms that left my dog very unhappy. Showers and T-showers linger today, but we dry out tomorrow and cool off later in the week. Nothing I'd call a cold front. Folks in Oklahoma and Texas may be praying for some of that Canadian air - 100F later today. On October 17. Welcome to the new normal.