Growing Flood Potential: Brainerd Lakes Area (severe risk later, statewide)
August 6, 2011 — 11:25am
Doppler Radar Estimates. NWS Doppler (from MPX/Twin Cities) shows some 3-4" rainfall estimates from near Clarissa to Baxter, as thunderstorms continue to track from west to east along a nearly stationary warm frontal boundary. The NWS has issued a Flood Advisory, here are the details:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... WEST CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... CROW WING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BRAINERD... SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 945 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...AND LOCAL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING OF ROADSIDE DITCHES AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH STANDING WATER ON ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
Nagging Storms. NWS Doppler radar at 11:20 am shows strong storms from just north of Alexandria to Little Falls, the Brainerd area, east to Aitkin, just grazing the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. The chance of storms in the metro will increase by mid/late afternoon as a cool front approaches - a few of the storms may turn severe. Most of central/southern MN is in a "slight risk" of severe storms, according to SPC.
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Yesterday wasn't hard to take, and today should be even sunnier - about 5 to 10 degrees cooler but I suspect there will be few complaints. We warm back into the 70s Thursday with 80s like Friday before a wind shift. Make the most of dry weather - models suggest a return of cooler, wetter weather next week.
Monday was a postcard-perfect day with blue sky and upper 60s. I'm trying to block out the bugs, which are back. Well that was fast. We warm to 70F or beyond this afternoon with a slight chance of a shower. Thursday and Friday look terrific as temperatures warm up again; I could see low 80s Friday afternoon. We may be sliding into a wetter pattern next week, but I still don't see anything severe. No widespread severe storms for the metro into the first week of May? A bit unusual. I wonder if we'll make up for lost time.
Sunday was a treat, coming after a gray and windy Saturday with rain brushing the south metro. Winds ease today with enough sun for mid to upper 60s - a slight chance of showers and T-showers Tuesday afternoon. Another spurt of warmth arrives late week; Friday appears to be the best day in sight as the mercury closes in on 80 degrees. This week should help to restore some of your faith in a Minnesota spring.
Saturday was an acquired taste: thickening clouds and a chilling breeze - but at least it didn't snow...or flood...or tornado. Rain brushed the southern suburbs but that system moves out today and a drying northeast breeze triggers partial clearing. Temperatures mellow this week; a hint of summer warmth possible by next weekend.