Growing Flood Potential: Brainerd Lakes Area (severe risk later, statewide)
August 6, 2011 — 11:25am
Doppler Radar Estimates. NWS Doppler (from MPX/Twin Cities) shows some 3-4" rainfall estimates from near Clarissa to Baxter, as thunderstorms continue to track from west to east along a nearly stationary warm frontal boundary. The NWS has issued a Flood Advisory, here are the details:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... WEST CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... CROW WING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BRAINERD... SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 945 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...AND LOCAL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING OF ROADSIDE DITCHES AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH STANDING WATER ON ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
Nagging Storms. NWS Doppler radar at 11:20 am shows strong storms from just north of Alexandria to Little Falls, the Brainerd area, east to Aitkin, just grazing the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. The chance of storms in the metro will increase by mid/late afternoon as a cool front approaches - a few of the storms may turn severe. Most of central/southern MN is in a "slight risk" of severe storms, according to SPC.
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I'm happy to report that today will be even nicer than yesterday! That's a pretty low bar, granted, but we should top 80F today with some sunshine, higher humidity and a few stray T-storms. 80s will be the rule this week, with warmer than average weather spilling into Labor Day weekend. The risk of a Gulf Coast hurricane seems to be increasing again - water temperatures in the Gulf are very warm, which may fuel a big storm within a few days.
Thursday was a breath of fresh air and today will be another fine day with blue sky, light winds and no rain (amazing). Showers and T-storms return late tonight into Saturday as the atmosphere tries to warm up again - Sunday should be sunnier, warmer and drier. Summer comes rushing back next week with more 80s, even a few 90s possible by the end of next week. Hermine impacting Florida and the Gulf Coast? Still a definite maybe, but the storm is a sloppy mess; it's unclear if and when conditions will be ripe for strengthening.
So long heat index, at least for a few days. Agreeable air, courtesy of Canada, will be with us for the next few days. Clouds build up this afternoon; Friday should be sunnier with less wind and temperatures more typical of late September. After a close encounter with Saturday showers temperatures mellow Sunday and summer heat returns next week. No, we haven't seen the last 90-degree warmth.
Hard to believe it rained again last night with another fine display of thunder and lightning. At least we were spared severe storms this time around. Winds shifting to the west/northwest dry us out today with cooling temperatures into Friday (the nicest day in sight). You may need a Plan B for Saturday; with any luck we salvage a better day on Sunday. No storms with names - which is more than residents of Florida and the Gulf Coast can say. All eyes are on "Invest 99-L", which may ripen into "Hermine" in the days to come.