Auroras and Tropical Systems

WOW! This is neat!! @UWCIMSS always comes up with amazing images, they are a great follow and like on social media as well! In the image below, you can see aurora (northern lights) over Canada along with Tropical Depression #2 SE of the Carolina Coast. Note that major city lights can also be seen across the Lower 48 from Friday night. So neat!

Tropical Depression Bonnie: Radar Earlier Saturday During Tropical Storm Status

The radar loop below from PM Saturday showed bands of heavy rainfall pushing into South Carolina when Tropical Depression Bonnie was at Tropical Storm Strength.  Gusty squalls will continue to bring strong winds and heavy pockets of rain to areas along the Coast as the weekend continues. The other big concern will be a strong rip current potential.

Rainfall Potential
Here's the rainfall potential through PM Tuesday, which suggests widespread 1" to 2" amounts from the Carolinas to parts of the Northeast. Heavy rainfall could lead to flood concerns along the coast and for some inland locations.

IR Satellite

The IR satellite from PM Saturday when Bonnie was at Tropical Storm strength. The satellite loop showed a fairly large blob of intense clouds nearing the SE Coast. This blob of moisture brought areas of heavy rainfall, gusty winds and RIP currents along the coast through during the first part of the holiday weekend.

Bonnie: Sunday Sunrise
This was the visible satellite view of Bonnie on Sunday. The IR satellite turns to visible satellite revealing more definition in the clouds as the center of circulation was just about to make landfall along the coast of South Carolina
Wind Circulation From Early Sunday...
Wind circulation from early Sunday showed a very evident cyclonic wind field surrounding Bonnie. Note here that the center of circulation was sitting just off the coast of South Carolina. 

Projected Path

Here is the projected path for Bonnie through the end of next week. Note that after strengthening to Tropical Storm status and weakening to a Tropical Depression, it may once again become a Tropical Storm as it moves inland over South Carolina. The storm then appears to move back into the Atlantic where it hugs the Mid-Atlantic Coast through most of next week. Interestingly, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts on June 1st.

 Intensity Guidance
Here's an interesting produce that suggests potential wind speeds over time. Note that a few models keep this particular storm into Tropical Storm strength over the next few days, while most models bring it back down to Tropical Depression status.
Model Paths
The model path for this particular storm shows a pretty evident NE track  after the system tracks into South Carolina. This system will likely pick up speed as we head into next week as it start to encounter stronger upper level winds, which may help to minimize the heavy rainfall threat as some of the moisture lifts into parts of the NE.

Getting Better - Even Nicer Memorial Day
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

Our somewhat soggy Saturday was a perfect day for lounging, wasn't it? I feel tired from being tired. However, being on the go so often, I don't feel guilty one bit! I hope you were able to catch up on a little R and R yourself.

Hey, on the bright side, 'most' lawns and gardens are happier now. Some of us won't have to water for a few days and I am all about a free lawn watering.

The heaviest, steadiest rains from Saturday, push east today. Wrap around clouds and a few stray PM T-showers can't be ruled out this afternoon, but it won't be a washout. Tomorrow looks even nicer with more sun and warmer temps. In fact, Memorial Day looks like the nicest day of the holiday weekend. Enjoy!

Meanwhile, the second tropical system of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season and will impact folks in the Carolinas through early next week with squally rain and high rip current potential through early next week. Interestingly, the NHC is suggesting an above average year in the Atlantic basin due to a developing La Nina in the Pacific. Stay tuned.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Sun and cloud mix. Stray afternoon T-storm possible. High: 79. Wind: W 8-13 mph.

MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY: Mild sun. Spotty PM thunder west. High: 80. Wind: SW 5mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers and storms develop. Low: 61. Winds: ESE 5mph

TUESDAY: Scattered PM storms with locally heavy rain. Sticky. High: 77. Winds: SSE 10-15mph.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy. Stray PM rumble. Wake-up: 59. High: 72. Winds: WSW 10-15mph

THURSDAY: More sun, refreshing breeze. Wake-up: 53. High: 71. Winds: NNW 7-12mph.

FRIDAY: Bright sun. Thunder arrives overnight. Wake-up: 54. High: 74. Winds: WSW 5mph.

SATURDAY: Warmer. Afternoon T-shower. Wake-up: 58. High: 75. Winds: SW 5mph.

This Day in Weather History
May 29

1949: An intense downpour dumps over 7 inches of rain at Thief River Falls.

1947: Extremely late season snow falls in southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and southern Wisconsin. Worthington, MN picks up an inch, while some places in southern Wisconsin receive up to 6 inches.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 29th

Average High: 73F (Record: 94F set in 2006)
Average Low: 53F (Record: 33F set in 1963)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 29th

Sunrise: 5:31am
Sunset: 8:50pm

*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~1min & 33secs
*Daylight Gain Since Winter Solstice: ~6hour & 35mins
*Length of Day: 15hours & 19mins

Moon Phase for May 29th at Midnight
0.8 Days After Last Quarter


Extended Outlook

The extended outlook through the first few days of June suggests warmer than average temperatures continuing through the end of May. However, note the slight cool down  as we get into the first part of June with highs dipping into the 60s. The good news is that overnight lows don't look to dip to far, so the threat for frost or freeze doesn't look imminent at this point.

6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a decent chance of below average temperatures returning  to parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Region from June 2nd to June 6th. Although temperatures may dip a bit, it doesn't look to be unbearable.


Sunday Weather Outlook

Sunday weather looks a little nicer across the region. It appears that we'll have a little more sunshine and it won't be quite as soggy. With that said, temperatures will still be fairly close to average with readings warming into the 70s across the state, but a few 80s may also be possible across southern MN. Dewpoints will be in the 50s, so it won't be too muggy.

Sunday Weather Outlook
The heaviest rainfall from Saturday looks to shift farther east, but a few lingering showers and a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out on Sunday. Note that there looks to be a little more sunshine the farther SW you get.
Sunday Weather Outlook
Winds won't be an issue on Sunday, but a few there there could be a few gusts in the 10mph to 15mph range at points during the afternoon.
Simulated Radar
Here's the simulated radar from AM Sunday to midday Tuesday. Note that a few lingering showers will be possible on Sunday, but it looks better than Saturday was. At this Point, Memorial Day Monday looks good for the most part, but showers and storms arrive late Monday night into Tuesday with locally heavy downpours. There may also be an isolated strong storm or two as the line moves through... stay tuned.
Rainfall Potential
The somewhat soggy weather will slowly push east on Sunday with a few lingering light showers across the region (mainly east). The next best chance of rain arrives late Monday night into Tuesday with some heavier downpour potential. The image below suggests rainfall tallies through 7pm Tuesday with some some near 1"+ tallies across the southern half of MN into Wisconsin.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through early next week shows slightly improved weather conditions on Sunday across parts of the Central U.S., but another blob of heavier moisture looks to return to the Midwest as Monday and Tuesday roll around. In fact, there is a chance of some strong to severe storms along with heavier rainfall tallies. 
Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's HPC, the rainfall potential through the end of next week suggests some of the heaviest rainfall across parts of the Central and Southern Plains. Some 2" to 4"+ tallies can't be ruled out, especially across parts of Oklahoma and Texas, where those amounts may be a little more widespread. Also note the heavier band of rain along the East Coast as our tropical system lifts NE along the coast there. Some spots in the Mid-Atlantic region could see as much as 3" to 5"+ with the potential of localized flooding.
"Clouds Provide Clue to Better Climate Predictions"
"A research group from the CERN Cloud experiment, including scientists from Carnegie Mellon University’s Mellon College of Science and College of Engineering, have uncovered the processes behind the formation and evolution of small atmospheric particles free from the influence of pollution. The findings are key to creating accurate models to understand and predict global climate change, and are published in the May 26 issue of Nature. Clouds and aerosols–small airborne particles that can become the seeds upon which clouds form–are essential to climate predictions because they reflect sunlight back into space. Reflecting light away from Earth can have a cooling effect, masking some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases. “The best estimate is that about one-third of the warming by greenhouse gas emissions is masked by this aerosol cooling, but the fraction could be as large as half and as little as almost nothing,” says Neil Donahue, professor of chemistry, chemical engineering, and engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon." 

What the What?

Here's an interesting way to give a weather report...

"Anyone tuning in to BBC Breakfast on Saturday morning may have caught weather presenter Tomasz Schafernaker delivering a highly irregular weather summary. Forecasting a day of “scrumdiddlyumtious sunshine,” the seasoned meteorologist warned Britain  could be in for occasional “uckyslush showers” and potential “jumpsquiffling thunder.”

See the Video HERE:


Thanks for checking in and have a good rest of your holiday weekend! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Soggy Saturday - Better Sunday and Memorial Day

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Sunny Memorial Day - Thundery Downpours Overnight