11th Wettest October on Record at MSP (So Far Through October 21st)
 
The MSP Airport picked up an additional 1.06" of rain on Monday, October 21st, which helped to bump us up into the 11th wettest October on record. Note that we still have more than a week left of October 2019 and we could perhaps crack the top 10, but I think it's safe to say we won't make it to the top spot, which was 5.68" set in 1971.
_________________________________________________________________________
 
A Fairly Wet October So Far (Through October 21st)
 
October 2019 has been fairly wet across much of the Upper Midwest with several locations several inches above average through October 21st. Interestingly, Rochester is already reached its wettest YEAR on record, but is also sitting at its 4th wettest October on record with 5.63" of rain, nearly 4" above average!
 
 _____________________________________________________________________________
 
4th Wettest Year on Record at MSP (So Far Through October 21st)
 
Thanks to recent heavy rainfall at MSP, we have now bumped up into the 4th wettest YEAR on record at MSP through October 21st! Interestingly, we are less than 1.5" away from the top spot of 40.32" set in 2016 and we still have nearly 70 days left of 2019!! At this point, I'd be shocked if we didn't break or even shatter that record over the next couple of months. Stay tuned...
____________________________________________________________________________
 
It's Been a Wet 2019 So Far Through October 21st
 
The numbers below are quite impressive to say the least. Note that every climate reporting station listed below is above average for 2019. Incredibly, MSP is nearly a foot above average precipitation so far through October 21st, while Rochester is almost 2 feet above average precipitation so far this year. Unreal! By the way, Rochester is already more than 7" above its wettest year ever recorded 43.94" set in 1990 and there is still nearly 70 days left of 2019! 
 
__________________________________________________________________________
 
Weather Outlook Wednesday
 
Happy OctemBRR!! High temps on Wednesday will feel more like November with highs only warming into the 30s and 40s across the state. Thankfully winds won't be as strong as they were on Tuesday, so there won't be quite as much nip in the air as there was just 24 hours ago. The forecast for Wednesday still calls for a few spits of rain and perhaps even a few wet flakes across parts of the region. 
 
____________________________________________________________________________

Weather Outlook AM Wednesday to PM Thursday

The storm system that brought strong winds and areas of heavy rain to the Upper Midwest over the last few days will finally loosen its grip on the region. There may still be a few spotty showers, mixed with a few wet snow flakes, but it won't be heavy. A bubble of high pressure will settle in later this week, which will help clear skies and allow for sunnier skies by Friday. 


__________________________________________________________________________

Twin Cities 7 Day

Here's a look at the 7 day forecast for the Twin Cities, which remains chilly over the next few days, but Friday and Saturday afternoon should be better with highs rebounding back into the 50s. Another front will move in late weekend, which will help to drop temps back in the 40s by early next week. 
 
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
Less Than 2 Week Until We "Fall Back" - Time Change...
 
Believe it or not, we are less than 2 weeks away until the time change. This year it will occur on Sunday, November 3rd. The good news is that we will have more daylight in the morning, but less light when you get home from work and school. The sunset in the Twin Cities on Saturday, November 2nd is at 6PM, but on Sunday, November 3rd, it will be around 5PM. By the way, the earliest sunset in the metro is 4:31PM during the first couple of weeks of December.
 
________________________________________________________________________
 
Fall Colors Peaking!
 
Fall colors conitnue across the state, but there are quite a few places past peak as we approach the last weekend of October. Take a look a the picture Stay Gingrich snapped on the 17th at Lake Maria State Park. Great shot Stacy!
 
___________________________________________________________________________
 
MN Fall Color Update
 
According to the MN DNR, the latest fall color report suggests the northern half of the state are already past peak, while the Twin Cities has yet to get into peak color. The fall colors will go fast, espeically with the expected strong winds on Tuesday. Enjoy the fall color while you can!
 
_______________________________________________________________________
 
Typical Peak Color Across the State

According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities see peak color around mid October. It's hard to believe, but the fall color is almost gone.

_____________________________________________________________________________

How Does Weather Effect the Leaves?

Did you know that weather has a big impact on the fall color? Weather conditions that are either too wet or too dry can lead to premature displays or even dull, muted color displays. The best weather would be a warm, wet summer that gives way to sunny, cool fall days. Read more below:

______________________________________________________________________________

Minnesota Crop Progress & Condition - October 21st

"Eighty-nine percent of the corn crop was mature, 18 days behind last year and 10 days behind normal. Corn harvested for grain reached 11 percent, 17 days behind last year and 13 days behind the average. Corn harvested for silage reached 90 percent this week, 12 days behind average. Corn condition was rated 53 percent good to excellent, a slight improvement from the previous week. Nearly all soybeans have dropped their leaves, 6 days behind normal. Forty-two percent of the soybean crop has been harvested, 2 weeks behind average. Soybean condition was rated 53 percent good to excellent, remaining steady when compared to the previous week."
 
 
____________________________________________________________________________
 
Average First Frost at MSP is October 12th & Still Frost Free This Fall

Looking back at the last 30 years of data at the MSP Airport, the average first frost (32F or colder) is October 12th.  The Twin Cities got close on the 12th, but only dropped to 33F. The earliest frost was on September 20th back in 1991, but the latest was November 18th in 2016. Last year, our first frost was on October 11th.

________________________________________________________________________ Frosty Thursday & Friday Morning?? Again, MSP has not officially dropped to or gone below 32F yet this season, but it appears we could see our first official frost(s) of the season Thursday and or Friday morning. The "urban heat island" may help to keep some locations in the metro just above freezing, but the rest of the state looks to be quite frosty both mornings with lows dipping into the 20s. ____________________________________________________________________________ US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on October 15th), 0.00% of the state of Minnesota was either in a drought or abnormally dry! The last time 0.00% of the state was drought free was earlier this year in mid May. This has been an extremely wet year, no question! ___________________________________________________________________________  "Phenology: October 15th, 2019"
If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week:  "Taking time to contemplate what is happening in nature is one of the many aspects of Northern Community Radio that sets us apart from any other radio station.  Each day we bring you a phenology note where our resident phenologist John Latimer shares a note from his journals of more than 35 years of climate and nature data collection.  Each Tuesday we dig even deeper with the full Phenology Report.  If you appreciate this programming, become a member today or increase the contribution amount of your current membership to this one of a kind, rural, hip, environemntally conscious radio station! School is on!  We are excited to start hearing from our intrepid student reporters in classrooms around northern Minnesota!  If you are a teacher or work with kids, you are invited to join the Phenology Network on KAXE/KBXE!  John has created a curriculum spanning the whole school year and will connect with you on how to get your students observing nature and sending in their phenology reports. Send an email of interest along to get set up!"
 
 
__________________________________________________________________________

Points of Tropical Origin: October 21st - 31st

Tropical activity through the end of October is still somewhat active, ocean waters are 'warmer' and upper level winds are typically a little less intense. The image below shows all of the tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. Note how many different systems have developed with their corresponding tracks.
 
 ____________________________________________________________________
 
Average Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
 
Believe it or not, there is an actual date when things are typically the most active in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA's NHC, the peak is September 10th. That number is based off of the "Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years" - "The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season." Note how the hurricane activity drops off as we head into the end of October and into November. The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends of November 30th.
 
 ________________________________________________________________________
 
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended outlook looks fairly dry across parts of the Central US and across the Western US. Meanwhile, It could be wetter than average along and east of the Appalachians and in Alaska.
 
____________________________________________________________________________
 
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook by the end of the month and into the first week of November looks pretty chilly across much of the Central US, including the Upper Midwest. Halloween could be a bit chilly this year! Stay tuned.


________________________________________________________________________

Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the end of October and into early November. Temperatures will feel more like November through the rest of the week with highs only warming into the 40s. However, it appears that we will warm up a bit as we approach the weekend with highs back into the 50s and perhaps near 60F! Enjoy that 'milder' weather because we're getting indications of another cold front that will drop temps to below average levels by Halloween.

 
____________________________________________________________________

Warmest October Temps on Record at MSP

Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of October, which shows only (2) 90F days on record. The most recent warmest day was 88 degrees back in 2011.

 _____________________________________________________________________________

From Heavy Rain to Heavy Snow Next Week?
By Paul Douglas

"Imagine putting a soaking wet sponge in the freezer, taking it out, then trying to pour water on it. The water is going to immediately run off. This accurately describes our soils heading into winter and what we can expect in the spring" said South Dakota State Climatologist Laura Edwards. NOAA is already concerned about record rains in 2019 setting the stage for severe river flooding next spring. Much of the state is experiencing the wettest year since records were started in the 1800s. Another spring of flooding and late planting would prove disastrous for agriculture.

Great news. My lawn chairs have been found - in Winona. Winds ease today with some sunshine; 50s likely Friday and Saturday as the atmosphere impersonates October.

Next week may feel like late November. Models print out (very) significant wet snow Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by 20s and 30s for Halloween. Here we go.

To quote the local National Weather Service: "Don't worry everyone. It will stop raining when it starts snowing."
_____________________________________________

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 46.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with patchy frost by morning. Winds: NW 5. Low: 31.

THURSDAY: More sunshine. Still brisk for October. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 45.

FRIDAY: Frosty start. Sunny and breezy. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 29. High: 52.

SATURDAY: Dim sun through high clouds. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 38. High: 57.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooler breeze. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 39. High: 47.

MONDAY: Peeks of sun, probably dry. Winds: W 10-15. Low: 30. High: 41.

TUESDAY: Cold mix or wet snow arrives. Winds: NE 7-12. Low: 32. High: 36.
______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
October 23rd

1899: An unseasonably warm day occurs in the Twin Cities, with a high of 82.
_________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 23rd

Average High: 55F (Record: 82F set in 1899)
Average Low: 37F (Record: 17F set in 1936)

Record Rainfall: 1.01" set in 1995
Record Snowfall: 1.4" set in 1938
_________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 23rd

Sunrise: 7:39am
Sunset: 6:15pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 36 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 56 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hours & 01 minutes
__________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for October 23rd at Midnight
2.8 Days After Last Quarter Moon

___________________________________

What's in the Night Sky?

"Before dawn on October 23 and 24, 2019, watch as the moon slides in front of the constellation Leo the Lion. Then, as the morning darkness begins to give way to dawn, watch for the planet Mars to climb above the sunrise point on the horizon. Leo’s starlit figurine will be found in the eastern (sunrise) direction, in the predawn sky, at which time Mars will still be beneath the eastern horizon. Mars will only come into view as dawn’s light begins to increase. See the chart at the bottom of this post. Leo is identifiable for the prominent backwards question mark pattern within it; this pattern is a well-known asterism, called The Sickle. Although the chart at top is especially designed for North America, you’ll see the moon in the vicinity of Regulus from around the world. Before dawn on these same dates in the world’s Eastern Hemisphere, you’ll see the moon offset farther westward (upward) relative to the backdrop stars of the zodiac than we do in North America. For your specific view, at your location on the globe, try Stellarium."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________
 
Average Tornadoes By State in October
 
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in October is quite a bit less across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. Note that Minnesota typically sees only 1 tornado, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). By the way, the last October tornado in Minnesota was on October 11th, 2013 in Traverse county located in western MN. That tornado produced EF1 damage near Charlesville, MN.
 
______________________________________________________________________________
 
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
 
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,548 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
 
 _______________________________________________________________________________

2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through October 20th suggests that there have been a total of 1,548 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1275. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,819 tornadoes were reported.
 
________________________________________________________________________
 
Wednesday Weather Outlook
 
Here's the weather outlook for Wednesday still looks quite chilly across the northcentral part of the nation with temps running nearly -5 to -10F below average.Meanwhile, hot, dry and breezy weather continues across California, where evelated fire weather concerns will be in place through the end of the week.
 
_____________________________________________________________
 
National Weather Outlook
 
The storm responsible for strong winds and heavy rain earlier this week in the Upper Midwest will start to loosen its grip on the region as it lift north into Canada. Weather conditions in the Upper Midwest will be a little quieter through the end of the week, but another storm system will slide southeast along the Front Range of the Rockies with areas of heavy Colorado snow PM Wednesday into Thursday. This same storm looks to move into the Southern US with another round of storms and locally heavy rain.
 

______________________________________________________________________________
 
Heavy Ranifall Potential
 
The 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, suggests another round of heavy rain across parts of the Southern US with several inches of rain possible by the weekend. Some of this heavy precipitation will be possible across parts of the Northeast as well. Meanwhile, the Desert Southwest will remain dry.
 
______________________________________________________________________
 
Heavy Colorado Snow
 
A storm system will sag southeast through Colorado over the next couple of days and will spread heavy snow across the area. The National Weather Service has issued winter weather headlines in advance of the snow potential, which could be as much as 6" to 12"+ in the higher elevations.
 


 
 
"Standing in the Rubble of Paradise: Life After the Camp Fire, One Year Later"
 
"For the 36,000 people living in and around Paradise, California, the Camp Fire is a definitive moment that cleaved life into a before period and an after one. In just a few short days in November 2018, the most destructive fire in California’s history turned green forests into barren landscapes of charred toothpicks and leveled large portions of Paradise and the surrounding communities. The flames caused $16.5 billion in damage, killed 85 people, and destroyed 18,804 structures according to state records. Nearly a year later, recovery is still ongoing for the thousands of people who lost their loved ones, homes, and in some cases, everything. Some are still sifting through the rubble of their houses, trying to find keepsakes. Others have had the rubble cleared from their land and are trying to decide whether to rebuild or move somewhere safer. Still others sometimes wake up from dreams of flames. More than 90 percent of Paradise’s 26,800 residents have yet to return, meaning true recovery—a return to what once was—may never happen."
 
 

________________________________________________________________________
 
"What Ballooning Carbon Emissions Will Do to Trees"
 
"Many forecasts for climate change assume that tropical forests will continue to soak up carbon dioxide as the world warms. What if they don’t? Apart from the experts, few people realize that climate change could be worse. Every year, trees, shrubs, and every other kind of plant absorb 9 billion tons of CO2—one quarter of what we let loose from our tailpipes and smokestacks—and help slow the gas’s accumulation in the atmosphere. If not for the world’s photosynthesizers, the concentration of CO2 in the air, along with Earth’s temperature, would be rising much faster than it already is. Our terrestrial plants do us “a fantastic favor” sponging up all that CO2, says Scott Denning, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University. That’s especially true in the tropics: By some estimates, the band of jungle that hugs the equator sucks up about half of the carbon absorbed on land. But in the coming years, tropical regions are projected to see steeply rising temperatures and, in some areas, increased drought. That will create less and less hospitable conditions for these crucial equatorial jungles. Nonetheless, published forecasts of the future of climate change, including the marquee results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, take it for granted that the world’s forests will continue acting as a terrestrial carbon sink—an assumption that may be disastrously overoptimistic."
 
 

________________________________________________________________________
 
"The Science Of Why Car Tires Deflate When It Is Cold"
 
"Here is a quiz for you. How many times a year have you gotten to your car on a cold morning only to notice that your car tires look deflated? Even better, many modern cars have fancy digital displays that tell you exactly how much pressure has been lost. The temperature in parts of Georgia dropped into the forties overnight this week. It is not surprising that when I headed out to drop my son off at basketball tryouts that my tire pressure lights were illuminated. While a mild annoyance, this is a very common thing, and something that I suspect that you have experienced as well. Many people are curious about why this happens. Here’s an explanation that tries to make complex physics and meteorology accessible to the layperson. In order to really address this question, I have to introduce a few scientific concepts so stay with me. The Ideal Gas Law or the Equation of State is written as PV = nRT. The terms P, V, and T represent pressure, volume and temperature respectively. The term n is a representation of how many molecules of gas are present in the volume (for example, the tire). This law, according to Lumen Learning’s website, was “originally deduced from experimental measurements of Charles’ law (that volume occupied by a gas is proportional to temperature at a fixed pressure) and from Boyle’s law (that for a fixed temperature, the product PV is a constant).”
 
 

__________________________________________________________________________

"Some of the Best Shooting Stars of 2019 Are Coming — Here’s How to See Them"

"Thanks to Halley's Comet, it’s the annual peak of the Orionid meteor shower, one of the best times to see shooting stars in 2019. Space dust left in the solar system by Halley's Comet will slam into Earth’s atmosphere in the early hours of Tuesday morning as October’s second meteor shower peaks.  What is the Orionid meteor shower? Happening from October 2 through November 7, but peaking late Monday, October 21 in the early hours of Tuesday, October 22, the Orionid meteor shower is an annual event that brings between 20 and 40 visible shooting stars every hour."

See more from Travel and Leisure HERE:


_____________________________________________________________________________

"What do we really need the Moon for?"

"The Moon is such a familiar presence in the sky that most of us take it for granted. But what if it wasn't where it is now? How would that affect life on Earth? Space scientist Dr Maggie Aderin-Pocock, an expert on the Moon, explores our intimate relationship with our planet’s rocky satellite. Besides orchestrating the tides, the Moon dictates the length of a day, the rhythm of the seasons and the very stability of Earth. Yet the Moon doesn’t stay still. In the past it was closer to the Earth and in the future it will be further away. It’s lucky that it is now perfectly placed to help sustain life. Using computer graphics to summon up great tides and set the Earth spinning on its side, Aderin-Pocock implores us to look at the Moon afresh: to see it not as an inert rock, but as a key player in the story of our planet’s past, present and future."

See more from BBC HERE:

______________________________________________________________________________

"The Potential of Green Urban Planning for Mental Health"

"There is no single solution to the world-wide epidemic of poor mental health; addressing its root causes—like poverty-triggered stress and social isolation—and choosing effective treatment for sufferers remains paramount. One way to potentially partly buffer against the effects of poor mental health is through contact with nature, including the green spaces within metropolises. This is an emerging area of research with plenty of unanswered questions attached, but there is a not-insignificant number of studies pointing to this being a measurable, important effect. “Green space is an agent of public health, one that can build and sustain mental wellbeing,” Jenny Roe, an environmental psychologist at the University of Virginia, told Earther. That’s why she’s part of a team that wants to not just quantify the effect that natural spaces have on mental health, but to also frame it in a way that forms part of designs for cities."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:

____________________________________________________________________________

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Older Post

Paul Douglas: Welcome to the land of lakes, ponds and puddles

Newer Post

Winter: Not a Threat - An Opportunity