Flood Watch into Monday - HRRR Hints at Late Evening T-Storm Threat
June 1, 2014 — 1:15pm
Short-Term Flood Risk: Far Southern Minnesota. NWS Doppler radar at 1:08 PM shows strong storms around I-90, from near Albert Lea to Rochester and La Crosse. The initial outflow boundary from last night's flooding storms has pushed south and east of MSP, but conditions are ripe for more storms by evening.
* Flash Flood Watch extended into Monday afternoon for most of Minnesota. Details from NOAA.
Some PM Sunshine - Setting Stage for Another Outbreak? High-resolution 1 km visible imagery (1 PM) shows clearing over parts of central and western Minnesota. If the sun does come out and stay out for a few hours the atmosphere will become very unstable (again), which may fuel another surge of strong storms this evening and tonight.
HRRR Forecast for 9 PM. NOAA's 3 km. HRRR model shows a possible MCS (meso-convective system) capable of more heavy rain and frequent lightning approaching MSP by late evening. Conditions remain ripe for thunderstorms capable of additional flooding into at least the morning hours Monday, followed by some drying Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists, engineers and developers provide weather services for various media at Broadcast Weather, high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster and weather data, apps and API’s from Aeris Weather. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Here we go, fall the way we knew it could be. That means low to mid 60s with some sunshine streaming through today - a few more clouds and more wind tomorrow, but all in all fairly quiet for late October. A little rain is expected the middle of next week; warming up nicely 1 week from today before cooling off for Halloween. No blizzards brewing for October 31 this year...
Yes, La Nina correlates with colder, wetter (snowier) weather for northern tier states, and that could mean a better chance of happy snowmobilers and cross country skiers this winter. Average snow would be nice, about 54", give or take. Odds favor a tougher winter than last year, but I wouldn't assume worst-case (polar vortex) scenarios just yet...
It actually feels like October out there. Soak up the chill because a mild bias continues as far ahead as we can see, certainly into the first week or two of November. Snow? I don't see it - in fact many suburbs within 20 miles of the downtowns will remain frost-free for another week or two. As has been the trend in recent years we're getting another Super-Sized Autumn
Tuesday was extraordinary (nice not to be tracking red blobs on Doppler radar). Today looks a bit cooler, and you may even need a sweatshirt or light jacket by Thursday morning. If you can avoid a frost Friday morning odds are your yard will remain frost-free into next week, maybe Halloween at the rate we're going.
My dog is really looking forward to an end to the thunderstorm season. He was not happy last night, with a few waves of heavy T-storms, hail and high water (Doppler radar suggests up to 2" of rain fell over parts of the south metro). Some October. We dry out today, you may even require a light jacket later this week as we limp into autumn. Oh, today's blog has me thinking about buying an emergency generator to keep the lights on.