Flood Watch into Monday - HRRR Hints at Late Evening T-Storm Threat
June 1, 2014 — 1:15pm
Short-Term Flood Risk: Far Southern Minnesota. NWS Doppler radar at 1:08 PM shows strong storms around I-90, from near Albert Lea to Rochester and La Crosse. The initial outflow boundary from last night's flooding storms has pushed south and east of MSP, but conditions are ripe for more storms by evening.
* Flash Flood Watch extended into Monday afternoon for most of Minnesota. Details from NOAA.
Some PM Sunshine - Setting Stage for Another Outbreak? High-resolution 1 km visible imagery (1 PM) shows clearing over parts of central and western Minnesota. If the sun does come out and stay out for a few hours the atmosphere will become very unstable (again), which may fuel another surge of strong storms this evening and tonight.
HRRR Forecast for 9 PM. NOAA's 3 km. HRRR model shows a possible MCS (meso-convective system) capable of more heavy rain and frequent lightning approaching MSP by late evening. Conditions remain ripe for thunderstorms capable of additional flooding into at least the morning hours Monday, followed by some drying Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists, engineers and developers provide weather services for various media at Broadcast Weather, high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster and weather data, apps and API’s from Aeris Weather. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
The month is a little more than half over and we've already picked up over 4" of rain in the metro (airport) but some communities have seen closer to 7-10" of rain in August. It looks and feels more like June out there. Shocking weather news: more T-storms may bubble up later today, but the weekend looks pretty good, especially Sunday. Keep expectations low for Monday's eclipse (not sure the weather will fully cooperate here) but skies clear and temperatures and humidity levels come down for the start of the Minnesota State Fair next Thursday. Man, the summer flew by...
I was concerned about flooding from yesterday's slow-moving storm, and I talked about it in print and on 'CCO Radio. What caught me off-guard, as well as nearly every other meteorologist, was the ferocity of the T-storms that pushed northward late in the day, spinning up a series of tornadoes and some extreme 2-4" rains. Flooding will remain a problem today, especially central Minnesota, but a pretty nice weekend is shaping up. We're due...
I hope you were able to sneak outside yesterday and enjoy a few hours of comfortable sunshine, because more rain sweeps back into Minnesota today and tonight, accented by thunderclaps at times. An inch or two of water may fall on your yard before skies brighten up Thursday - before the next round of T-storms arrive Friday. The weekend looks better, but Monday's eclipse-weather-forecast is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Don't get your hopes too high...
This week brings a streak of 70s, but 80s should be the rule next week, and weather for the State Fair looks sticky, with a few days near 90F. Speaking of warmth next weekend will be more lake-friendly. An isolated T-shower Saturday gives way to mid-80s on Sunday; the nicer day to fish, golf, bike - or loiter on the deck. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Hope you enjoyed the nice weather on Saturday, as the second half of the weekend looks unsettled with storms moving in (especially during the afternoon). More rain looks likely later this week - how much could fall? Click for details! - D.J. Kayser