Flood Watch into Monday - HRRR Hints at Late Evening T-Storm Threat
June 1, 2014 — 1:15pm
Short-Term Flood Risk: Far Southern Minnesota. NWS Doppler radar at 1:08 PM shows strong storms around I-90, from near Albert Lea to Rochester and La Crosse. The initial outflow boundary from last night's flooding storms has pushed south and east of MSP, but conditions are ripe for more storms by evening.
* Flash Flood Watch extended into Monday afternoon for most of Minnesota. Details from NOAA.
Some PM Sunshine - Setting Stage for Another Outbreak? High-resolution 1 km visible imagery (1 PM) shows clearing over parts of central and western Minnesota. If the sun does come out and stay out for a few hours the atmosphere will become very unstable (again), which may fuel another surge of strong storms this evening and tonight.
HRRR Forecast for 9 PM. NOAA's 3 km. HRRR model shows a possible MCS (meso-convective system) capable of more heavy rain and frequent lightning approaching MSP by late evening. Conditions remain ripe for thunderstorms capable of additional flooding into at least the morning hours Monday, followed by some drying Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
I predict that many grills will be smoking this afternoon and possibly again for dinner tomorrow as a few optimistic thermometers tickle 70 degrees late in the afternoon! We still need more warmth to knock out that lake ice. The Fishing Opener is only 3 weekends away and some lakes still have feet of ice up north! Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
I am happy to report that our first 60 degree highs of 2018 are in the forecast this weekend, which would be the first since around Thanksgiving, nearly 5 months ago! I predict that many will feel feverish today with raging spring fever setting in Monday as we make a run 70 across parts of the state. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
It's been a long, snowy slog, but spring will finally break out in the coming days with 50s giving way to a few 60s by next week. Most of the snow in your yard should be gone by Sunday or Monday (give or take a month). It's a dry pattern; in spite of a slight shower chance next Tuesday many towns in Minnesota should stay rain (and snow) free into most of next week. It's about time.
No question: we've earned our summer this year, more than most years. It was the coldest winter season in 4 years, with the most snow since 2010-2011. La Nina flavored our winter with a cold, wet bias, but I'd still bet a stale bagel next winter won't be as forbidding. Time will tell, but the headline is warmth, reluctant warmth is finally showing signs of paying Minnesota a visit. About time.
I'm as ready as you are to turn the page and celebrate the (very late) arrival of spring. We're almost there. Today's system may brush the metro with a coating of slush - maybe plowable for Rochester and Albert Lea but probably not in the metro area. Next week may restore some measure of faith in a fickle Minnesota spring.