Flood Watch into Monday - HRRR Hints at Late Evening T-Storm Threat
June 1, 2014 — 1:15pm
Short-Term Flood Risk: Far Southern Minnesota. NWS Doppler radar at 1:08 PM shows strong storms around I-90, from near Albert Lea to Rochester and La Crosse. The initial outflow boundary from last night's flooding storms has pushed south and east of MSP, but conditions are ripe for more storms by evening.
* Flash Flood Watch extended into Monday afternoon for most of Minnesota. Details from NOAA.
Some PM Sunshine - Setting Stage for Another Outbreak? High-resolution 1 km visible imagery (1 PM) shows clearing over parts of central and western Minnesota. If the sun does come out and stay out for a few hours the atmosphere will become very unstable (again), which may fuel another surge of strong storms this evening and tonight.
HRRR Forecast for 9 PM. NOAA's 3 km. HRRR model shows a possible MCS (meso-convective system) capable of more heavy rain and frequent lightning approaching MSP by late evening. Conditions remain ripe for thunderstorms capable of additional flooding into at least the morning hours Monday, followed by some drying Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
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I know, I know. You've heard the hype before. It starts out with "looks like significant snow!" Within 3-4 days it's "looks like flurries!" I don't blame you for being skeptical. So am I. But the pattern has shifted, we are getting moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico with a storm track south/east of Minnesota, possibly favorable for heavy snow for parts of Minnesota. It could be a pile, very plowable for portions of central Minnesota, maybe the metro - although I still think something will come along to gum up the snowfall potential for MSP. We'll see, but at least there's a chance Sunday night into Monday.
We are transitioning to a somewhat milder, significantly stormier pattern in the days and weeks to come. Instead of being lashed by a parade of clippers whipping up powder and cringe-worthy wind chills, a more southerly flow could mean heavier (wetter) snow, possibly mixed with rain and ice at times. But at least we stand a somewhat better chance of accumulating snow - without subzero temperatures to complain about.
If you enjoyed Monday you will positively relish today's weather: blue sky, less wind...single digit highs! Sounds like fun. Imagine how good 20s will feel tomorrow; 30s Thursday into Saturday before cooling off a bit next week (back down to average - not arctic). The arrival of this cooler front may set off a period of snow Sunday - still early for specifics.
Cold air is filtering back in for the beginning of the week. Highs will barely make it to zero in the Twin Cities Monday, and they will stay below zero across western Minnesota. I do have 30s in the forecast, though! Click into the blog to find out when. - D.J. Kayser
Sunday's clipper should drop 2-3 inches of powder; as much as 4 inches in a few suburbs. Enough to plow, enough to slow down drive times. Take it easy out there. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson