Flood Watch into Monday - HRRR Hints at Late Evening T-Storm Threat
June 1, 2014 — 1:15pm
Short-Term Flood Risk: Far Southern Minnesota. NWS Doppler radar at 1:08 PM shows strong storms around I-90, from near Albert Lea to Rochester and La Crosse. The initial outflow boundary from last night's flooding storms has pushed south and east of MSP, but conditions are ripe for more storms by evening.
* Flash Flood Watch extended into Monday afternoon for most of Minnesota. Details from NOAA.
Some PM Sunshine - Setting Stage for Another Outbreak? High-resolution 1 km visible imagery (1 PM) shows clearing over parts of central and western Minnesota. If the sun does come out and stay out for a few hours the atmosphere will become very unstable (again), which may fuel another surge of strong storms this evening and tonight.
HRRR Forecast for 9 PM. NOAA's 3 km. HRRR model shows a possible MCS (meso-convective system) capable of more heavy rain and frequent lightning approaching MSP by late evening. Conditions remain ripe for thunderstorms capable of additional flooding into at least the morning hours Monday, followed by some drying Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
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Until further notice there will be no real "weather" in Minnesota. A few showers Thursday, 70s over the weekend - maybe a cooler front next week. But nothing that rises to the level of newsworthy. Unlike South Carolina, where up to 26" of rain fell - an almost unimaginable amount of moisture from one (stalled) system. Details in the blog.
Gazing at the maps, with a persistent west-to-east "zonal" jet stream flow keeping the coldest Canadian air bottled up to our north, I don't see a serious metro frost through at least October 15. A longer growing season, yes, and more ragweed to annoy those of us with allergies. Check the blog for more details.
There was precious little to complain about this past summer, and our weather-luck is spilling over deep into autumn; an autumn that has been neutered, and delayed. I still don't see a good chance of a frost or freeze for the metro area into mid-October. Flurries? Not likely anytime soon. Enjoy the weather honeymoon because at some point the other shoe (boot) will drop. Savor every moment...
Joaquin is pulling out to sea but a stalled storm over the southeast (stalled because of the giant atmospheric roadblock called "Joaquin") is pouring our record, potentially historic rains on the Carolinas, and very rough surf all up and down the East Coast. Our weather looks positively serene by comparison, and our quiet spell of weather is going to hang on into most of next week. I know, amazing...
While continued cool and dry weather continues for us through the weekend, the weather around us is quite active. Parts of California could see nearly 1 inch of rain and much of the Mid-Atlantic could see 6" to 10" rain through early next week! Meanwhile, Joaquin continues in the Atlantic. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson