Flood Watch into Monday - HRRR Hints at Late Evening T-Storm Threat
June 1, 2014 — 1:15pm
Short-Term Flood Risk: Far Southern Minnesota. NWS Doppler radar at 1:08 PM shows strong storms around I-90, from near Albert Lea to Rochester and La Crosse. The initial outflow boundary from last night's flooding storms has pushed south and east of MSP, but conditions are ripe for more storms by evening.
* Flash Flood Watch extended into Monday afternoon for most of Minnesota. Details from NOAA.
Some PM Sunshine - Setting Stage for Another Outbreak? High-resolution 1 km visible imagery (1 PM) shows clearing over parts of central and western Minnesota. If the sun does come out and stay out for a few hours the atmosphere will become very unstable (again), which may fuel another surge of strong storms this evening and tonight.
HRRR Forecast for 9 PM. NOAA's 3 km. HRRR model shows a possible MCS (meso-convective system) capable of more heavy rain and frequent lightning approaching MSP by late evening. Conditions remain ripe for thunderstorms capable of additional flooding into at least the morning hours Monday, followed by some drying Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
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Wednesday sure looked and felt like autumn under a gray sky with a cool breeze. We stand a better chance of spying the sun today with temperatures mellowing close to 70F by tomorrow. No more heat waves - and a welcome lack of downpours into Tuesday of next week. Meanwhile we're keeping an eye on "Matthew" in the Caribbean. Will this be our October surprise? Too early to say.
The big story is news that we had not one, but two mega-rain events this past summer, based on forensic data and investigation by the Minnesota Climate Office and DNR. These sprawling areas of flooding appear to be on the increase; we've experienced at least 7 of these events since 2000. Somehow we get a break in the puddle treadmill with cool sunshine the rule from today into the weekend. Good timing for the Ryder Cup. Have you heard it's in town town? I had no idea. I'm just gratified we were able to squeeze in a big, glitzy, high-visibility international event - in between floods.
A large area of low pressure centered over Ontario is responsible for this windy nonsense. While wind gusts won't be quite as strong as they were Monday, we'll still have a nagging breeze to combat as you meander about outdoors. The low clouds surrounding the storm system will also make an appearance again Tuesday with passing showers that will likely be present during the afternoon hours. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
As the stubborn storm drifts east, a ridge of high pressure builds in allowing sunshine and dry weather to persist for several days. Golfers and golf fans will be appreciative of the downpour free forecast as the Ryder Cup comes to town this week. Check the blog for more updates. -Todd Nelson
An Octoberish wind develops over the next few days with high temps dipping into the 50s and 60s across the state. Clouds and a few spits of rain linger through Monday; Great Ryder Cup weather settles in Thursday. Dry and sunny! Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Playing across town in their temporary home, Xcel Energy Center, the Lynx showed no signs of rust. No signs of nerves as defending champions. No signs of anything other than being locked in and focused on finishing a task.
Exasperated New Englanders still digging out from three major storms that left 6 feet or more of snow in many areas are bracing for what's expected to be another punishing blast of winter this weekend.